Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

I would appreciate any views from this forum on COKO BEACH.

Im very keen to get him onside, just don't know the route yet.

One would think he'll be going to the festival judging on the last 2 seasons. I was very impressed with his performance 1st time out narrowly losing to Pencilfulloflead (who could be very good) over 2.6m. They have an engagement over 2.4m on Friday @Gowran Park which may "let the cat out of the bag" so to speak. He's only 5 (6 come fez) so you'd think a handicap like the Brown Advisory where Novice chasers excel could be right up his sleeve. They'd need to mind him if he's going that route.

Any views most welcome. TIA.

It’s possible to win the Brown Plate as a 6yo, Siruh du Lac and Road to Respect have both done that in the last 4 years, carrying under 11st and rated 141 an d145 respectively.

Theres not much else over fences for Coko Beach, is it looks like that Brown Plate or running somewhere else in the spring.

[Craigy14]

Pic has an entry this weekend over 2m 3f and is jocked up as per racing post.

Couls be taking on Chantry House.

[Lobos]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2020...th-darver-star

for darver star fans and his bumper horse, Cromwell the chemist

Makes complete sense. Hopefully he can put the last run behind him and get back on track for the Arkle. That said, if Shiskin comes out and looks a superstar as well, where's he going to go then ??!!

[Saxon Warrior]

Makes complete sense. Hopefully he can put the last run behind him and get back on track for the Arkle. That said, if Shiskin comes out and looks a superstar as well, where's he going to go then ??!!

I was thinking that the ‘avoid Envoi Allen’ plan was through the Irish season, to try and make some cash and win some Graded races.

Shishkin isn’t going to be taking him on over there.

Then they can think about the Festival in mid-February , armed with knowledge on how he went at 2Miles, and likely opposition at Cheltenham, in each of the races he could run in.

He will probably have enough trouble getting past some of the Irish over 2Miles first, Unexcepted, Felix Desjy (again), Klassical Dream (maybe), Embittered, Elixir D’Ainay, Captain Guinness is supposed to be back shortly too.

[Lobos]

I was thinking that the ‘avoid Envoi Allen’ plan was through the Irish season, to try and make some cash and win some Graded races.

Shishkin isn’t going to be taking him on over there.

Then they can think about the Festival in mid-February , armed with knowledge on how he went at 2Miles, and likely opposition at Cheltenham, in each of the races he could run in.

He will probably have enough trouble getting past some of the Irish over 2Miles first, Unexcepted, Felix Desjy (again), Klassical Dream (maybe), Embittered, Elixir D’Ainay, Captain Guinness is supposed to be back shortly too.

That list of horses you've quoted, including DS and Shiskin,...I've just looked and I've backed all except KD. Seven in total. Mental.

[Outlaw]

I would appreciate any views from this forum on COKO BEACH.

Im very keen to get him onside, just don't know the route yet.

One would think he'll be going to the festival judging on the last 2 seasons. I was very impressed with his performance 1st time out narrowly losing to Pencilfulloflead (who could be very good) over 2.6m. They have an engagement over 2.4m on Friday @Gowran Park which may "let the cat out of the bag" so to speak. He's only 5 (6 come fez) so you'd think a handicap like the Brown Advisory where Novice chasers excel could be right up his sleeve. They'd need to mind him if he's going that route.

Any views most welcome. TIA.

I liked his debut jumped very tidily from the front and obvs boosted by Pencil last weekend, potentially well down the order in gordys string this year for novice chasers thou so one to keep an eye on race by race for the foreseeable imo.

[The King Pimm]

That list of horses you've quoted, including DS and Shiskin,...I've just looked and I've backed all except KD. Seven in total. Mental.

Seven....is that alll!!!! I had those seven covered in May

that’s a strong looking seven on paper though Lobos, I hope you’ve got them at bigger prices. I think I’ve got 12 for the Arkle at the moment so a few light. The best I’ve seen so far is Unexcepted & Felix but looking forward to seeing Shiskin on Monday.

[Middle_Of_March]

Kev, I totally agree that Janidil won't be good enough for the Arkle.

But this is what Willie told the Racing Post about Janidil in his stable tour last week:

"He goes novice chasing and he could be smart enough to go down the Arkle route. I know he ran in the Albert Bartlett, but he did all his winning prior to that over two miles."

The point I'm trying to make is that running Janidil in a 2m 4f race on his novice chase debut is not going down the Arkle route.

I still think this race entry is a clear signal that Willie is not thinking of Janidil in terms of the Arkle. Despite what Q says I maintain trainers are far more likely to give their novice chasers a step up in trip after their fencing debut than to bring them back in trip.

But who cares.

The question is where will Janidil end up at the Festival?

The answer is surprisingly predictable provided Willie sticks to his well entrenched Festival race planning policy.

Let's assume you're right and he's not good enough for a Grade ! Novice Chase - which rules out the Arkle, Marsh and RSA.

That leaves us with 5 options - the Grand Annual, the Brown Advisory, Ultima, Kim Muir and National Hunt Chase.

GRAND ANNUAL: We can rule it out because Willie hates the race. Over the last 5 years he's had just ONE runner - a second season novice who pulled up in 2018.

BROWN ADVISORY: Janidil's not going to end up here either because it's completely against the way Willie operates. He uses it as a race to give older chasers a run at the Festival. He hasn't run a novice chaser in the BA for the last 5 years. Here's Willie's record in the race:

2020: 3 runners aged 10,10 and 9 - all unplaced.
2019: 1 runner aged 10 - unplaced.
2018: 0 runners.
2017: 0 runners.
2016: 1 runner aged 9, a second season chaser who came 5th.

ULTIMA: It's also highly unlikely Janidil will run here because it's completely against Willie's modus operandi. Over the last five years he's saddled just ONE runner in the Ultima - Up For Review, a second season chaser who went off co-favourite and finished 8th in 2019.

KIM MUIR: It's just possible but unlikely that Janidil will run here for two reasons. Firstly, he might struggle to get a low enough qualifying mark because of his 149 rating over hurdles. Secondly, it's not a race Willie much cares for - particularly for his decent novice chasers. He's had just 3 runners in the KM over the last 5 years but one of them was a novice who would have struggled to get in his second team. Here's Willie's record in the race:

2020: Second season chaser Cabaret Queen, aged 8, finishes 15th at 40-1.
2019: Second season chaser aged 9 is unplaced.
2018: 0 runners
2017: 0 runners
2016: Six-year-old novice chaser Sambremont finishes 8th at 14-1. Sambremont was only rated 123 over hurdles but ran here on the back of victory in the Grade 2 Flying Bolt novice chase at Navan.

NH CHASE: Willie hasn't won any of the above four Festival handicap chases in the last decade. It's all about the graded chases for him. He simply doesn't target the handicaps - specially not with his novices.

But he has won the NH Chase twice in the last 8 years and usually has a fancied runner in the race. He's had 9 runners in the race over the last 5 years. Here's his record:

2020: 1 runner. Carefully Selected ( aged 8)went off 10-11 favourite and unseated at the last when held in third.
2019: 1runner. Ballyward (aged 7) was the 9-4 favourite and fell. It was only his third run over fences.
2018: 2 runners. Rathvinden (aged 10) was a 9-2 shot and WON, Pylonthepressure (aged 8) came 5th.
2017: 2 runners. Haymount (aged 8) a 33-1 shot came third and Abre De Vie (aged 7) unseated when beaten.
2016: 3 runners. Measureofmydreams (aged8) was 3rd at 9-1 while Pleasant Company (8) and 15-2 shot Pont Alexandre (8) both pulled up.

Conclusion: Unless Janidil proves to be a Grade 1 chaser (unlikely) he has 3 options for the Festival:
1. Stay home.
2. Revert to hurdles.
3. Run in the NH Chase for which he is 33-1 with Bet365. And if Janidil ends up here I think he's capable of giving Galvin a run for his money.

Daft or what?

Can’t be many horses to go Albert Bartlett in his novice hurdle year and then Arkle the following season. Two entirely different races.

But after the trainer has mentioned the Arkle as a potential target.. I fail to see why you’d then back him for the NH Chase! It’s double the trip! (Actually the 4-miler is 3.6 miles now but you see my point).

[charlie]

Added Klassical Dream @ 22/1 for the Arkle (Hills Boost)

I'd kick myself if I didn't get him onside. I really don't like Shishkin's current price, bordering on ridiculous IMO. 9/4 and hasn't jumped a fence in a competitive race yet. He's priced off a supreme win and very enthusiastic trainer comments.

What about KD? He won a supreme (10 seconds quicker) and according to WPM he is probably their Arkle number one. I know KD went a bit wayward last season, and that's factored into his price, but you effectively have one horse at 9/4 and the other @ 20/1, for a trainer that's won 4 of the last 6.

That's collectively enough for me to think 20/1 is the right price and value play in this race at the moment, even more so when you have the likes of Envoi Allen and Sharjah ahead of his un the market when we know they won't be going down the Arkle route.

[TheRowebot]

Added Klassical Dream @ 22/1 for the Arkle (Hills Boost)

That's collectively enough for me to think 20/1 is the right price and value play in this race at the moment, even more so when you have the likes of Envoi Allen and Sharjah ahead of his un the market when we know they won't be going down the Arkle route.

Spot on. Always look through the market to see the obvious ‘won’t run’ candidates. Leaves KD and ED as the obvious plays if not already on.

[nortonscoin200]

Can’t be many horses to go Albert Bartlett in his novice hurdle year and then Arkle the following season. Two entirely different races.

But after the trainer has mentioned the Arkle as a potential target.. I fail to see why you’d then back him for the NH Chase! It’s double the trip! (Actually the 4-miler is 3.6 miles now but you see my point).

Yeah, I see your point MoM.

You are basically gambling on Janidil not making the grade to run in the Arkle/Marsh/RSA and Willie sticking with his policy of not running novice chasers in Festival handicaps.

If you feel that is a likely scenario then backing Janidil in the NH Chase makes complete sense.

I imagine most people will think 33-1 is not worth the risk.

The time to strike may be after Janidil has had a couple of runs this season - IF he proves he's not going to be in Willie's team for the Festival Grade 1s.

Last season I always felt he would be better over longer trips even when he won those two big handicap pots over 2 miles.

[Lobos]

Seven....is that alll!!!! I had those seven covered in May

that’s a strong looking seven on paper though Lobos, I hope you’ve got them at bigger prices. I think I’ve got 12 for the Arkle at the moment so a few light. The best I’ve seen so far is Unexcepted & Felix but looking forward to seeing Shiskin on Monday.

Yep, have them all at big odds courtesy of this forum. Actually got 5.4/1 TWAR on Shiskin which I did the week after I came from this year's Fez. Only wish I had more on him then ! I have him in nice doubles with the usual suspects but not nearly enough as a single. Agree that Felix and Unexcepted are currently in position A. The Forum will be a very nervous one next Monday. A bit like when Envoi made his chasing debut. Let's hope we get the same performance/result.

[Bonjers]

Chantry House v Pic D'Orhy at Ascot on Friday.

[Quevega]

Yeah, I see your point MoM.

You are basically gambling on Janidil not making the grade to run in the Arkle/Marsh/RSA and Willie sticking with his policy of not running novice chasers in Festival handicaps.

If you feel that is a likely scenario then backing Janidil in the NH Chase makes complete sense.

I imagine most people will think 33-1 is not worth the risk.

The time to strike may be after Janidil has had a couple of runs this season - IF he proves he's not going to be in Willie's team for the Festival Grade 1s.

Last season I always felt he would be better over longer trips even when he won those two big handicap pots over 2 miles.

When he's declared in a 2m 7.5f plus race would be when to consider him.
Not before IMO.

[Lobos]

When he's declared in a 2m 7.5f plus race would be when to consider him.
Not before IMO.

That's a very good point . Galvin had to go to England to qualify because of the lack of qualifying races in Ireland and the likes of Janidil won't be having more than say 3 races ,possibly 2, before the fez so they have to act pretty sharpish if he's going to go NHC.