Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[ComplyOrDie]

As per Saxons brilliant thread in the diary section, Asterion Forlonge out over 2m 3 1/2f on Saturday. The race littered with previous festival runners and good performances, including Faugheen (Marsh) & Champagne Fever (Arkle).

I've just added Asterion Forlonge for the Marsh at 35/1 (boosted price), cash out available. I know he jumped markedly right at the festival over hurdles, but there is a chance he may jump better over fences, if not cash out is there for that reason.

The reasons I think he'll end up int he Marsh are that they probably won't want to chase Shishkins backside up the hill again, so have a crack at Envoi Allen instead. Also connections have Shishkin for the Arkle, and The Big Getaway for the RSA, no real need to run them in the same races as each other, they done that last season so they know where AF stands with Shishkin. The year Champagne Fever went to the Arkle it was very likely because they wanted to split the runners up (albeit a different owner), but they had Djakadam in the Marsh and then Ballycasey in the RSA. I reference Champagne Fever as he won the race Asterion Forlonge is entered in at the weekend before running in the Arkle and not the Marsh, but there was a reason for that, as there will be this time around for Asterion Forlonge.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Imagine if Asterion Forlonge carried Envoi Allen out of the race

[ComplyOrDie]

Imagine if Asterion Forlonge carried Envoi Allen out of the race

You've said it now, means it's happening

[FinalFurlong91]

Imagine if Asterion Forlonge carried Envoi Allen out of the race

They'd have to sneak asterion out of the country

[Lobos]

Can someone please get Zarkareva priced up to win Saturday and win the Arkle. I feel another PTKO moment coming on. Eggs !!!!!!

[Lobos]

Felix Desjy v Darver Star on Saturday at Punchestown in a decent looking race. If either of those win then they'll go single figure 2nd fav behind Shiskin. Who do we think will come out on top ?? Personally think Darver Star but wouldn't put my mortgage on it !

[Istabraq]

I’m not sure much emphasis can be placed on the result, these races are introductions and educations and no trainer will have any novice chaser of theirs fully wound up for a few grand in November.
Clean round of jumping will be considered more important than the result...

[Lobos]

I’m not sure much emphasis can be placed on the result, these races are introductions and educations and no trainer will have any novice chaser of theirs fully wound up for a few grand in November.
Clean round of jumping will be considered more important than the result...

I'm not sure I fully agree with that. Having both had a run aready, they may only have Saturdays race and one more before they go to Cheltenham. Yes, they'll want to jump well but they'll definitely be trying to win as well in order to guage whether 2 miles is where they are going to stay or whether they'll step up.

[Istabraq]

I'm not sure I fully agree with that. Having both had a run aready, they may only have Saturdays race and one more before they go to Cheltenham. Yes, they'll want to jump well but they'll definitely be trying to win as well in order to guage whether 2 miles is where they are going to stay or whether they'll step up.

I’m sure both would swap a defeat here for a victory in March...

[The King Pimm]

As per Saxons brilliant thread in the diary section, Asterion Forlonge out over 2m 3 1/2f on Saturday. The race littered with previous festival runners and good performances, including Faugheen (Marsh) & Champagne Fever (Arkle).

I've just added Asterion Forlonge for the Marsh at 35/1 (boosted price), cash out available. I know he jumped markedly right at the festival over hurdles, but there is a chance he may jump better over fences, if not cash out is there for that reason.

The reasons I think he'll end up int he Marsh are that they probably won't want to chase Shishkins backside up the hill again, so have a crack at Envoi Allen instead. Also connections have Shishkin for the Arkle, and The Big Getaway for the RSA, no real need to run them in the same races as each other, they done that last season so they know where AF stands with Shishkin. The year Champagne Fever went to the Arkle it was very likely because they wanted to split the runners up (albeit a different owner), but they had Djakadam in the Marsh and then Ballycasey in the RSA. I reference Champagne Fever as he won the race Asterion Forlonge is entered in at the weekend before running in the Arkle and not the Marsh, but there was a reason for that, as there will be this time around for Asterion Forlonge.

I cashed out my Asterion Forlonge bets recently and now regret it. I have a feeling Mullins can straighten him out over fences, he won’t be foot perfect or guaranteed to jump straight everytime but he’ll improve. He could be really good, he has an engine and to stay on like he did in last supreme was admirable.

I plan to hover on Saturday over him for the Marsh, if he jumps the first mile fairly straight I’m back in

[Kevloaf]

Felix Desjy to do Darver Star for speed, with a really creditable staying-on 2nd for Darver Star.... that's the dream

[Can't Catch Me]

I cant really see why FD is fav myself. Think Darver Star will beat him and go clear 2nd fav.

[Kevloaf]

I cant really see why FD is fav myself. Think Darver Star will beat him and go clear 2nd fav.

You can't see why the Grade 1 winner is favourite over the listed winner?





I know the counter arguement, the G1 form Darver Star has you can argue is stronger....but your statement was you can't see it.... it's not hard to fathom


Darver Star could well be a good bet though, I'll be very tempted to back.

[ComplyOrDie]

I cashed out my Asterion Forlonge bets recently and now regret it. I have a feeling Mullins can straighten him out over fences, he won’t be foot perfect or guaranteed to jump straight everytime but he’ll improve. He could be really good, he has an engine and to stay on like he did in last supreme was admirable.

I plan to hover on Saturday over him for the Marsh, if he jumps the first mile fairly straight I’m back in

I wouldn't regret it too much, he's still got to show he isn't completely right sided with his jumping, and therefore it is a risk, a calculated one, as can cash, but a risk all the same

[ComplyOrDie]

As per my diary thread:

Diol Ker gets another chance today, I've added him for the Marsh at 33/1 E/W with cash out available. A few reasons why I think the Marsh, firstly his PTP form is OK, but it wouldn't be top of the pile for 3m chasers, secondly, his breeding does not scream that he needs 3m, although he is fairly closely related to Dynaste, who despite winning a Novice G2 over 3m, was arguably better around the intermediate trips, and indeed finished second in the 2013 Marsh (Jewsons Novice Chase as it was back then), before then winning the Ryanair the following season. Thirdly, outside of PTP's he's yet to tackle 3m, and his performance over 2m 4f last season when beating Monkfish has been franked plenty since, there is absolutely no reason to go over further at this stage of his career. On another note about his breeding, I'm not sure how many runners Martaline (Diol Kers sire) has had in the Marsh, but he's had 3 places in the race, Dynaste, Disko & Terrefort, which I'd imagine is a pretty good record. I've also added him for any race at 15.3/1 as it is feasible that he gets a decent handicap mark and they could well go for something like the Plate instead.

Thoughts, before he runs today?