Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Faugheen_Machine]

Less vat and maybe less Elliot factor. Having seem him in the Bartlett the English handicapper won't drop him from 149 unless he travels beforehand (regardless of how he does in novice chases in Ireland)

Was there less VAT back in 2013? The Irish have been clobbered with a few extra lbs for as long as I can remember.

Is it a fact that the handicapper won't drop him below 145? History tells me that it is possible, with the right campaign.

[Kevloaf]

Nolan talks a bit like that though.
He's a nervy pessimist.
Just watched the bartlett again, and he's the classiest horse of the four.

Classiest of the four at what?

[Quevega]

Classiest of the four at what?

Being a Horse.

[Kevloaf]

Being a Horse.

Ah yes of course.




They all look classy at different points. I got what you meant, but sounded like washy shit, and you hate that.

[Quevega]

Ah yes of course.




They all look classy at different points. I got what you meant, but sounded like washy shit, and you hate that.

It was washy shit.
I like that phrase.
He's the best horse IMO.
Probably got the best blend of speed and stamina. The others need things there own way a bit more.

[Saxon Warrior]

It’s not a big ask for the potential runners in the Amateurs 3Miles-6er, to find a 3M chase to place in the top 4 in.

The reason for the changes must have included having decent amateurs riding staying horses, and none of that shitty farce when Le Breuil beat Discorama, as 2 of only 4 finishers being whipped up the hill as the others fell or gave up knackered.

If they can’t qualify in a race 6 furlongs shorter than their Festival target, then connections don’t deserve to have an entry in the race.

[nortonscoin200]

NC - Out of interest, why can't you see the Kim Muir being an option? Is it purely because he'll be rated too high?

Hi FM - I just think the Kim Muir is a pretty unlikely option for several reasons.

The main obstacle to Janidil ending up in the Kim Muir is that Willie much prefers to have runners in the Championship races.

I don't think Janidil will be good enough to have a leading chance in the Arkle, Marsh or RSA. So I'd be surprised to see him turn up in those races.

And I think Willie would prefer to run him in the NH Chase rather than a handicap. And if he does go down the handicap route I would expect it to be the Brown Advisory as a Grade 2.

Willie's won the NH Chase twice in the last 8 years and saddled the hot favourite this year. JP has won the race 3 times out of the last 6 - so they both like a tilt at it.

But neither of them have an obvious leading contender (sorry but I'm not a member of the Aione fan club) apart from JP's Early Doors who would certainly be in with a shout if he went for this race.

Willie really hasn't put much effort into winning the Kim Muir or the Ultima in the last 5 years. During that time he's saddled just 3 runners in the Kim Muir (all unplaced) and 1 in the Ultima (unplaced).

He's tried harder in the Brown Advisory with 5 runners (1 placed,4 unplaced).

But the NH Chase is a higher graded race that carried more prize-money - and rightly or wrongly Willie didn't see Janidil's future as a two-miler even though he had been very successfully campaigned at that trip before the AB.

Before Cheltenham Willie said: "Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections have something better for the Albert Bartlett but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him."

Willie obviously got his way at Cheltenham. Maybe he has since changed his mind because of Janidil's lacklustre finish in 5th but I think the NH Chase will be the easiest and most practical option left open to him.

And I don't think Galvin will frighten him away.

Also, as you say, keeping his mark below 145 could blow his chances of the Kim Muir anyway.

All this theory could in any case be blown out of the water by what happens on the track between now and March. If Janidil proves better over fences than hurdles then maybe the Marsh or RSA could come into play. And if Aione does the biz over fences Willie may have found his NH Chase horse.

But imo Janidil is a pretty classy performer who would almost certainly go off at a single figure price in the NH Chase.

[Kevloaf]

It was washy shit.
I like that phrase.
He's the best horse IMO.
Probably got the best blend of speed and stamina. The others need things there own way a bit more.

The most eye catching was when he bullied his way out of after the turn? I think it shows the jockey had so much 'horse underneath him' or confidence that he would still be able to run right up the hill even after expending some additional energy?

Perhaps he did go too soon... then again, I just watched it back and it's impossible not to be drawn to Thyme Hill too.... and then you can't help but be impressed with Monkfish's attitude right in the throngs of battle.

Good race. I might watch the festival back tomorrow again. Been a few months.

[Quevega]

The most eye catching was when he bullied his way out of after the turn? I think it shows the jockey had so much 'horse underneath him' or confidence that he would still be able to run right up the hill even after expending some additional energy?

Perhaps he did go too soon... then again, I just watched it back and it's impossible not to be drawn to Thyme Hill too.... and then you can't help but be impressed with Monkfish's attitude right in the throngs of battle.

Good race. I might watch the festival back tomorrow again. Been a few months.

Yep.
The way I see it.
If those four ran in a 2 mile chase.
Who'd you have as favourite ?
I'd say Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill next.
Over 3 miles though, it'd be closer, as I think Monkfish and the others are all triers.

[Kevloaf]

Yep.
The way I see it.
If those four ran in a 2 mile chase.
Who'd you have as favourite ?
I'd say Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill next.
Over 3 miles though, it'd be closer, as I think Monkfish and the others are all triers.

Yeah, Latest Exhibition. That 3L defeat to Abacadabras he has is closer than I think any of the others would get.

If they re-ran the Albert Bartlett, how many wins do you give each of those 4?

[Quevega]

Yeah, Latest Exhibition. That 3L defeat to Abacadabras he has is closer than I think any of the others would get.

If they re-ran the Albert Bartlett, how many wins do you give each of those 4?

I'm not sure.
I think Latest Exhibition would win more of them though as he's more flexible, with the way a race might be run pacewise.
Which is what I define as classier.
Like Al Boum is classier than Santini.

[Faugheen_Machine]

NC - a decent case made

I think of all the novice chasers that JP has, and he has a hell of a lot, he'd be the most likely to be a handicap job. As a novice hurdler he took in, and won, two handicaps hurdles so the big fields won't be an issue to him.

I think we both agree that he's a talented horse but I'd prefer the handbrake to be applied until the spring. It isn't how WPM usually operates but I wonder if Frank Berry might have a say on his target.

I'm already on any race to take the stress out of it. I really don't want him taking on Galvin in the NHC

[nortonscoin200]

NC - a decent case made

I think of all the novice chasers that JP has, and he has a hell of a lot, he'd be the most likely to be a handicap job. As a novice hurdler he took in, and won, two handicaps hurdles so the big fields won't be an issue to him.

I think we both agree that he's a talented horse but I'd prefer the handbrake to be applied until the spring. It isn't how WPM usually operates but I wonder if Frank Berry might have a say on his target.

I'm already on any race to take the stress out of it. I really don't want him taking on Galvin in the NHC

Haha, I quite understand. I'd certainly settle for Galvin taking the NHC and Janidil romping home in a handicap. Good luck FM.

To be fair, picking the right race for him could prove tricky for them - after Willie threw that AB spanner in the works.

[ComplyOrDie]

Any one have thoughts or opinions on Longhouse Poet, who runs against Latest Exhibition tomorrow?

Derek O'Connor in the saddle, who has ridden him a couple of times previously, so wonder if he'll be a potential NH Chase or Kim Muir runner myself.

[JackieMoon33]

Any one have thoughts or opinions on Longhouse Poet, who runs against Latest Exhibition tomorrow?

Derek O'Connor in the saddle, who has ridden him a couple of times previously, so wonder if he'll be a potential NH Chase or Kim Muir runner myself.

I let myself down with him last season as I touted him early doors but he never came good. I’m not sure DOC being on board means they’ll target an amateur race for sure but it could have some substance. DOC actually recommended the horse to the owner so knows him well and has ridden him before.