Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[nortonscoin200]

Could be. They haven't been consistent themselves over the few years anyway. I do have the NRNB thread from last year that was accurate so at least we have a bit of a guide for this year.



Have they? I must have missed that

Don't beat yourself up about missing it Kev!!

The bet now has to be Janidil TWAR at 20-1 plus WH boost.

I can't see him in the Arkle, Marsh, RSA or Kim Muir for that matter. So it'll come down to a choice between the NH Chase and the Brown Advisory with the former still favourite.

But 33-1 best price in the NHChase isn't worth the risk.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Don't beat yourself up about missing it Kev!!

The bet now has to be Janidil TWAR at 20-1 plus WH boost.

I can't see him in the Arkle, Marsh, RSA or Kim Muir for that matter. So it'll come down to a choice between the NH Chase and the Brown Advisory with the former still favourite.

But 33-1 best price in the NHChase isn't worth the risk.

NC - Out of interest, why can't you see the Kim Muir being an option? Is it purely because he'll be rated too high?

[Pendil]

NC - Out of interest, why can't you see the Kim Muir being an option? Is it purely because he'll be rated too high?

Janidil is 149 Irish h/c mark as a hurdler

[Faugheen_Machine]

Janidil is 149 Irish h/c mark as a hurdler

Cause of Causes was at 150 rated hurdler but they did a nice job of getting him in the Kim Muir on two occasions.

[The King Pimm]

I do think the field in the NHC will be stronger this year if Shiskin, Envoi and Monkfish stay fit. They are the chief predators at the top of the betting food chain. This time last year there were no stand out dangers in the novice Chase markets from memory. This year feels different and as a result I think the NHC will have a stronger field especially now trainers (you would hope) are more familiar with the qualifying process and gearing their chosen horses around it. Personally I think Latest Exhibition and The Big Getaway will end up in the NHC along with Emitom.

[Quevega]

I do think the field in the NHC will be stronger this year if Shiskin, Envoi and Monkfish stay fit. They are the chief predators at the top of the betting food chain. This time last year there were no stand out dangers in the novice Chase markets from memory. This year feels different and as a result I think the NHC will have a stronger field especially now trainers (you would hope) are more familiar with the qualifying process and gearing their chosen horses around it. Personally I think Latest Exhibition and The Big Getaway will end up in the NHC along with Emitom.

I doubt it.
The new qualifying makes it less likely the higher rated will flood this race.
And the relatively few top amateurs makes it even harder.

[Faugheen_Machine]

TBG and Latest Exhibition will surely be given the chance to prove they are grade 1 horses first. They may end up in the NHC but only if they don't live up to expectations. That's how I'd see it anyway.

[The King Pimm]

I doubt it.
The new qualifying makes it less likely the higher rated will flood this race.
And the relatively few top amateurs makes it even harder.

Damn it, I was hoping my off the cuff grandiose statement may have some merit and credibility. I’ll go back to drinking my friends home brew IPA and trying to work out whether they are planets or stars I can see the next time I stagger outside for a wee.

[taylorch1990]

Been reading an article and sky sports about Latest Exhibition tomorrow and there's 2 quotes from Paul Nolan that would have me slightly worried. The first is 'Punchestown is a nice, galloping track with nice fences, and we just hope to God he jumps well.' and the second being 'He seems well, and it's all about jumping - we'll find out tomorrow if he's a chaser or not.' maybe I'm being too pessimistic but that reads to me that either he's done no schooling at all or that his schooling hasn't been great. I hope I'm wrong as he was a forum horse last year and I'll follow him now til the end of his career but I won't be backing him tomorrow or for any novice chases at the festival til after tomorrow.

[Quevega]

Damn it, I was hoping my off the cuff grandiose statement may have some merit and credibility. I’ll go back to drinking my friends home brew IPA and trying to work out whether they are planets or stars I can see the next time I stagger outside for a wee.

Stranger things have happened King P.
I think it'd help if they made the qualifying criteria that they place in the first 4 in a race over 2m 6.5 furlong. Instead of the 2m 7.5 furlong. As there seems to be a lot of these beginners and novices at the slightly shorter trip.

[Hurricane fly]

Been reading an article and sky sports about Latest Exhibition tomorrow and there's 2 quotes from Paul Nolan that would have me slightly worried. The first is 'Punchestown is a nice, galloping track with nice fences, and we just hope to God he jumps well.' and the second being 'He seems well, and it's all about jumping - we'll find out tomorrow if he's a chaser or not.' maybe I'm being too pessimistic but that reads to me that either he's done no schooling at all or that his schooling hasn't been great. I hope I'm wrong as he was a forum horse last year and I'll follow him now til the end of his career but I won't be backing him tomorrow or for any novice chases at the festival til after tomorrow.

Could be one to have the Stayers market open on debut

[Pendil]

Cause of Causes was at 150 rated hurdler but they did a nice job of getting him in the Kim Muir on two occasions.

Less vat and maybe less Elliot factor. Having seem him in the Bartlett the English handicapper won't drop him from 149 unless he travels beforehand (regardless of how he does in novice chases in Ireland)

[Kevloaf]

Been reading an article and sky sports about Latest Exhibition tomorrow and there's 2 quotes from Paul Nolan that would have me slightly worried. The first is 'Punchestown is a nice, galloping track with nice fences, and we just hope to God he jumps well.' and the second being 'He seems well, and it's all about jumping - we'll find out tomorrow if he's a chaser or not.' maybe I'm being too pessimistic but that reads to me that either he's done no schooling at all or that his schooling hasn't been great. I hope I'm wrong as he was a forum horse last year and I'll follow him now til the end of his career but I won't be backing him tomorrow or for any novice chases at the festival til after tomorrow.

Interesting angle, good post.
I hope you're wrong too FWIW

[The King Pimm]

Stranger things have happened King P.
I think it'd help if they made the qualifying criteria that they place in the first 4 in a race over 2m 6.5 furlong. Instead of the 2m 7.5 furlong. As there seems to be a lot of these beginners and novices at the slightly shorter trip.

It does appear to be a problematic qualifying process in its current form. It’s never going to happen but if I was in charge of the BHA I’d change the NHC to a grade 1 for professional jockeys and ditch the amateurs. It would be a much better race, I’d ditch the qualifying and just make it a 3 mile 6f Chase with a big pot for horses looking to be future national horses. It’s never going to happen so I’m going to instead try and squeeze in a few episodes of Arrested Development before my wife comes down to claim my attention and drain what battery I have left in my brain telling me about the dilemmas of her zoom meetings today while I try to pretend I’m sober

[Quevega]

Nolan talks a bit like that though.
He's a nervy pessimist.
Just watched the bartlett again, and he's the classiest horse of the four.