Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

...I doubt anybody will be tempted by the Hills ‘Special’ of Galvin winning today and the NHC @ 12-1, but PP have;

Galvin to win today & a/r at Festival @ 16-1.
Galvin to win today & NHC @ 22-1.

I just don't think they'll be really going for it today. They'll just make sure he gets round safely and in the top 4. He could still hunt round and win but I wouldn't bank on it. They have first and foremost sent him over to qualify for the NHC.

[Craigy14]

Today will tell a lot as it’s his first run over 3m.

He should qualify easy enough, not sure if he’ll win today though.

Not on board for the NHC but hope it goes well for all as it was a great shout and the target has been confirmed as well.

[Hardy Eustace]

I just don't think they'll be really going for it today. They'll just make sure he gets round safely and in the top 4. He could still hunt round and win but I wouldn't bank on it. They have first and foremost sent him over to qualify for the NHC.

I really in two minds about this.

On one hand he just needs to finish 4th so why give 100%, on the other hand he'll be put away after this race and have a nice long winter break so why not try 100% to win today.

At the prices if I knew he was going to give it all today he would definitely be a bet. But there is too much nagging doubt for me to be getting stuck in.

[JackieMoon33]

You've just said all the things you believe.

I'm asking if we have evidence that the Donnolly's would go out of their way to have a horse run in a specific race?

Just repeating myself, but it's dangerous to assume... if you owned a horse and had Patrick Mullins telling you, you'd win the NH Chase, and that Monkfish is a better horse, do you think they'd put their foot down and demand he ran in the RSA?

That's a leading question of course.... but still.....



He may well end up a better prospect than Monkfish, what do you think Ricci will do? Demand he wins the 'better race' or just wants the winner?

Patrick also mentioned that he thinks you need a hardened horse for the NH Chase so a second season novice and/or handicapper has an advantage. If he's talking up TBG (or Aione a few months back) then those horses will not fit that criteria as they'll likely only run 3 or 4 times before the festival.

[JackieMoon33]

I think Ruby talking about The Big Getaway vs Patrick talking about the Big Getaway is like...

Black Hercules - part deux.

A damn good example of class overcoming trip.
Ruby was intimating that TbG may run in the Marsh vs Envoi Allen again if they spot any chink.

Good point. I would say that some of the winners of the RSA's could also have won the NH chase whereas it would not work the other way round.

[Spectre]

Why would they be holding back with Galvin today? It makes no sense. He's race fit, they will want to see him running a decent race over three miles at the course, and there's decent prizemoney on offer. He's then going on a winter break to freshen up for March. I have zero doubt he'll be running on merit today. If he gets turned over it'll be by a better horse.

[Istabraq]

Why would they be holding back with Galvin today? It makes no sense. He's race fit

I agree/hope so Spectre but history tells us you have to consider the less obvious, especially with Elliott.
I'd be shocked if this was an elaborate early Kim Muir plot but you can't completely dismiss such antics can you ?

[taylorch1990]

Why would they be holding back with Galvin today? It makes no sense. He's race fit, they will want to see him running a decent race over three miles at the course, and there's decent prizemoney on offer. He's then going on a winter break to freshen up for March. I have zero doubt he'll be running on merit today. If he gets turned over it'll be by a better horse.

Someone made the point earlier that's stuck with me. If he's in second or third a couple of lengths down with 2 to jump are they gonna chuck him at the final 2 or be satisfied with getting him qualified? He could well be that far ahead he doesn't need to be really pushed out but it's enough of a doubt to put me off backing him today.

[charlie]

Why would they be holding back with Galvin today? It makes no sense. He's race fit, they will want to see him running a decent race over three miles at the course, and there's decent prizemoney on offer. He's then going on a winter break to freshen up for March. I have zero doubt he'll be running on merit today. If he gets turned over it'll be by a better horse.

Well said that man.

Worth noting too that it's not like he runs in the green and gold - I imagine the Bartlett's (who don't have many I don't think) will quite fancy winning 12 grand.

[archie]

Of course, he could be so good that they go RSA.

[jack1092]

Do you think he will be smashed in again today? Carefully selected went off 10/11! What price will Galvin go off?!

Galvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...

On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chances

[ComplyOrDie]

Galvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...

On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chances

I'd say he'll only go bigger if he's beaten well (and doesn't qualify) or doesn't complete, otherwise I don't see a way they'd push him out as he'd likely be qualified for the race then too.

[Kevloaf]

Galvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...

On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chances

Bumper form wasn't the reason Carefully Selected went off odds on is it?

Carefully Selected went off odds on because Champagne Classic got pulled out and there was no obvious replacement for him for Gordon and therefore it looked very weak on paper.

[jack1092]

Bumper form wasn't the reason Carefully Selected went off odds on is it?

Carefully Selected went off odds on because Champagne Classic got pulled out and there was no obvious replacement for him for Gordon and therefore it looked very weak on paper.

Bumper form obviously contributed to it though which is what i mean? It did look a weak renewal, but i doubt Galvin would ever be odds on in a NHC he hasn't the same profile as a CS which led punters to think it looked a virtual penalty kick!?

[jack1092]

I'd say he'll only go bigger if he's beaten well (and doesn't qualify) or doesn't complete, otherwise I don't see a way they'd push him out as he'd likely be qualified for the race then too.

Was hoping one or two might be stupid enough to not realise the qualifications necessary still....chances very slim i know.