Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[jack1092]

I wouldn't be shocked if he's beaten today as well. He's a very inexperienced horse and it's not egg and spoon race for all a few of the green and golds will be hunting out the back!

[Lobos]

The thing with Captain Guinness and a few others that I could mention, if you half fancy them but are not on by now and you think he's short, if he wins well today then you'll never back him. Catch 22 really. He could lose today and his price will go out to what you may think is better value but if he doesn't win today , regardless of it being his first chase start and debut this season, he'll probably not be good enough to win an Arkle anyway.

[Kevloaf]

We don't "know" Elixir D'ainay is going chasing or will remain at 2 miles, whereas we do know what Captain Gunness' target is at this stage.

That's probably why the price between those two is different, but I would certainly be favouring the bigger priced one if I had to pick between the two.




Captain Guinness is shorter than he should be, and if he wins today will go shorter still, so depending on how people approach ante post they have a decision to make before he runs.
I hope he really improves as a chaser... which isn't unimaginable given he's with Henry.

[Lobos]

He didn't even beat Andy Dufresne

And the horse who finished 2nd behind him on hurdles debut is still a maiden some 9 races later, hardly stacking up is it

I've managed to add him via free cash, but I wouldn't have gone out of my way with my festival bank to get him on board. He could well improve, he is still extremely lightly raced, but do agree with Billy about his price being low enough, but because of various factors, as you noted.

The discrepancy in price between himself and Elixir D'Ainay makes little sense to me.

The discrepancy has quite a bit to do with the HDB saying the Arkle is Captains target. Mullins hasn't even said if Elixr is going chasing yet. On that basis, they are priced correctly.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The thing with Captain Guinness and a few others that I could mention, if you half fancy them but are not on by now and you think he's short, if he wins well today then you'll never back him. Catch 22 really. He could lose today and his price will go out to what you may think is better value but if he doesn't win today , regardless of it being his first chase start and debut this season, he'll probably not be good enough to win an Arkle anyway.

That's a good point Lobos. If he wins today he'll be cut and he won't need to be impressive for them to cut him.

I really like CG for the Arkle. He has the size and scope for fences and he travels really strongly in his races. I still think there's a little juice in the 16/1 and can easily see him being the number 1 Irish contender come March. Just hope he looks a natural at 3.50 this afternoon.

[charlie]

I know we haven't had the stable tour yet but is Klassical Dream going chasing?

[ComplyOrDie]

We don't "know" Elixir D'ainay is going chasing or will remain at 2 miles, whereas we do know what Captain Gunness' target is at this stage.

That's probably why the price between those two is different, but I would certainly be favouring the bigger priced one if I had to pick between the two.




Captain Guinness is shorter than he should be, and if he wins today will go shorter still, so depending on how people approach ante post they have a decision to make before he runs.
I hope he really improves as a chaser... which isn't unimaginable given he's with Henry.

Point taken, but before we knew any of their targets he was still shorter than Elixir D'Ainay.

Unibet were the original company to have him priced up, and the only ones that went 33's, when Elixir D'Ainay was 50's (this according to Oddschecker historical prices). For the majority though CG was only a 20/1 shot (there were some 25's around), before any word of target had taken place, and ED was and still is 33/1. My point being, there was a price discrepancy prior to targets being mentioned.

[Kevloaf]

Point taken, but before we knew any of their targets he was still shorter than Elixir D'Ainay.

Unibet were the original company to have him priced up, and the only ones that went 33's, when Elixir D'Ainay was 50's (this according to Oddschecker historical prices). For the majority though CG was only a 20/1 shot (there were some 25's around), before any word of target had taken place, and ED was and still is 33/1. My point being, there was a price discrepancy prior to targets being mentioned.

CG was 25s with 365 wasn't he, then someone put him up for the CH, then he was 20/1 when people got back on

I'm in agreement though on the price, I've long preferred Elixir D'ainay, but I have backed both accordingly.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It could easily end up being Shishkin vs the Irish, imo.

Looking through the ante post prices, British contenders would look very think on the ground. Eldorado Allen and Fusil Raffles are shortest in the betting and I'd have them well below Klassical Dream, Felix Desjy, Captain Guinness and Elixir D'ainy in terms of residual class.

[ComplyOrDie]

I know we haven't had the stable tour yet but is Klassical Dream going chasing?

Nothing I have seen Charlie. Not a word on many of the Mullins runners, except entries, but even them have been few and far between.

[Lobos]

From HDB's stable tour comments you do get the impression they think a hell of a lot of CG. For a horse without a PTP or Bumper' background he's clearly got a lot of talent and you would think has tons more improvement in him. For one so inexperienced I can see why they've brought him out relatively early in the season as he'll require at least 4 runs to be hardened enough for an Arkle challenge. I do think he could be top drawer and may well be Shiskins nemesis come March.

[Lobos]

I know we haven't had the stable tour yet but is Klassical Dream going chasing?

Pretty sure Patrick hinted that he was ??

[Kevloaf]

It could easily end up being Shishkin vs the Irish, imo.

Looking through the ante post prices, British contenders would look very think on the ground. Eldorado Allen and Fusil Raffles are shortest in the betting and I'd have them well below Klassical Dream, Felix Desjy, Captain Guinness and Elixir D'ainy in terms of residual class.

Residual class.

1/100 that I use that within the week.

[Time For Rupert]

From HDB's stable tour comments you do get the impression they think a hell of a lot of CG. For a horse without a PTP or Bumper' background he's clearly got a lot of talent and you would think has tons more improvement in him. For one so inexperienced I can see why they've brought him out relatively early in the season as he'll require at least 4 runs to be hardened enough for an Arkle challenge. I do think he could be top drawer and may well be Shiskins nemesis come March.

How would you say CG compares to HDB's previous good tings in the Arkle?

[Lobos]

How would you say CG compares to HDB's previous good tings in the Arkle?

I doubt even HDB knows that yet. His homework and schooling will give them some idea but it's not until they get to the course that the real beast is revealed. Let's get today out the way and then ask me again !