Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

Draconien, do I dare pre stable tour?

Trying to figure out how pissed of I'll be not taking 33/1 this year if he is sound and out

Surely been off too long now to consider.

He was also 40/1 this time last year so that'd put me off

[charlie]

Surely been off too long now to consider.

He was also 40/1 this time last year so that'd put me off

Yeh you are right, I need a voice of reason during these moments. Where were you for Fusil ffs

[Kevloaf]

Yeh you are right, I need a voice of reason during these moments. Where were you for Fusil ffs

Elixir D'ainay is the same price. A bit gutted nobody has credited me with mentioning him first too or being chairman of the fan club.

The most likely Mullins horse, with KlassicalDream the other option was the gist of it.



Lost in the pages never to be found .... the ante post double with Saint Roi long forgotten too no doubt. (Cue him staying over hurdles)

[Attaglance]

Elixir D'ainay is the same price. A bit gutted nobody has credited me with mentioning him first too or being chairman of the fan club.

The most likely Mullins horse, with KlassicalDream the other option was the gist of it.



Lost in the pages never to be found .... the ante post double with Saint Roi long forgotten too no doubt. (Cue him staying over hurdles)

Firmly with you on Elixir D’Ainay for the Arkle and my biggest antepost outlay on him with 8points total (4pts E/W) @ 33/1 with cash out. Really excited to see this horse out this year and hoping for a positive mention in the Stable Tour.

[Lobos]

Hopefully The Captain can win well today for backers and at the same time give a boost to the Shiskin Supreme form.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Ante post prices are even more horrific than ever this year aren’t they? Captain Guinness could easily be 5/1 second favourite if he wins today

[Lobos]

Ante post prices are even more horrific than ever this year aren’t they? Captain Guinness could easily be 5/1 second favourite if he wins today

Don't think he'll go that low. 8's would be the lowest I'd imagine. Topped up on him as expecting a big run today. Agree though that prices have gone really silly this year. Just glad I've got on some of these 'good things' early doors as no way I'd be backing them now at the current odds. It's like we are in February!!

[billymag]

Does anyone think that Captain Guinness price is artificially low coz Ruby was on commentary the day he lost to Andy D and was banging on and on about him. Personally I think that its a big factor in him not being 25/1 for this. I know people will talk about the way he raced that day, but 16/1 for an Arkle just looks pretty terrible for what hes actually achieved. I wouldnt back him at 25/1 personally, so interesting to see how he goes today in a good little race, it will be "a long way to go" if they get beat.... sorry

[Nortons who]

In his weekly news update Paul Nicholls had the following words on Pic d'Orhy

'I had high hopes of Pic d'Orhy on his chasing debut at Market Rasen but he was a bit novicey at some of his fences on his way to finishing a four lengty runner up to Le Patriote. There is lots to come from Pic d'Orhy and will now step up in trip to two and a half miles. He is a case of "Rome was not built in a day." '

Based on the above, looks as though the Arkle is unlikely now as a race target.

[jack1092]

Does anyone think that Captain Guinness price is artificially low coz Ruby was on commentary the day he lost to Andy D and was banging on and on about him. Personally I think that its a big factor in him not being 25/1 for this. I know people will talk about the way he raced that day, but 16/1 for an Arkle just looks pretty terrible for what hes actually achieved. I wouldnt back him at 25/1 personally, so interesting to see how he goes today in a good little race, it will be "a long way to go" if they get beat.... sorry

Not sure about the commentary, but i think it was the way he travelled eye-catchingly in the Supreme as well that's made people take notice even more now. For all we don't know how he'd actually have finished. Trainer as we all know is known for improving them for fences, so people have latched on. He has only 3 starts to his name, so regardless of today, i think he'll be a very good horse. If that's for an Arkle in March i don't know......

[Can't Catch Me]

Early winner for worst antepost price of the season!

Darver Star is a 162 rated hurdler who has already won fairly impressively over fences and beaten some reasonable animals. 14/1 seems about right. Captain Guinness is a 150 rated hurdler who has only won race from 3 and if anything that rating is on the slightly generous side to my eyes. He hasn't jumped a fence in public, yet is the same price. Its clear one of them is wrong!

He's being priced as if he has already won todays race. Obviously he has loads of potential, but the price is madness.

[charlie]

Does anyone think that Captain Guinness price is artificially low coz Ruby was on commentary the day he lost to Andy D and was banging on and on about him. Personally I think that its a big factor in him not being 25/1 for this. I know people will talk about the way he raced that day, but 16/1 for an Arkle just looks pretty terrible for what hes actually achieved. I wouldnt back him at 25/1 personally, so interesting to see how he goes today in a good little race, it will be "a long way to go" if they get beat.... sorry

I agree Billymag. It's probably a culmination of factors - Ruby's comments, FOMO, brought down when travelling well, HDB comments, bookies slashing winning chase debutants (eg. Darver Star).

Don't get me wrong, I don't think 16/1 is a bad bet by any means and come 3.55 it could look very big, but it's a short price IMO based on what he has actually achieved, and doesn't interest me at all. He's basically beaten Andy Dufresne (which doesn't read great) and not much else. PTKO won over 2m at Cheltenham and was backable at 16/1 on the day, which for me puts CG @ 16/1 in October into perspective (although I appreciate I have the benefit of hindsight).

I get the travelling well in the supreme case but IMO he wasn't travelling as strongly as Abacadabras, and he was brought down at an incredibly irritating point of the race because the 'important bit' (for want of a better phrase) hadn't happened yet - which was turning in and finishing up the hill. Hundreds of horses have been 'tanking' as they free wheel down the hill, then get nowhere. For me CG is priced up as if he finished well up it, which tbf looked likely as he was travelling well, but we simply can't be sure.

Happy to watch the race and if he blows the field away and looks mustard I'll reconsider at what I imagine will be around 8/10's

[Can't Catch Me]

He was only travelling as strongly as Elixir Dainay as well!

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree Billymag. It's probably a culmination of factors - Ruby's comments, FOMO, brought down when travelling well, HDB comments, bookies slashing winning chase debutants (eg. Darver Star).

Don't get me wrong, I don't think 16/1 is a bad bet by any means and come 3.55 it could look very big, but it's a short price IMO based on what he has actually achieved, and doesn't interest me at all. He's basically beaten Andy Dufresne (which doesn't read great) and not much else. PTKO won over 2m at Cheltenham and was backable at 16/1 on the day, which for me puts CG @ 16/1 in October into perspective (although I appreciate I have the benefit of hindsight).

I get the travelling well in the supreme case but IMO he wasn't travelling as strongly as Abacadabras, and he was brought down at an incredibly irritating point of the race because the 'important bit' (for want of a better phrase) hadn't happened yet - which was turning in and finishing up the hill. Hundreds of horses have been 'tanking' as they free wheel down the hill, then get nowhere. For me CG is priced up as if he finished well up it, which tbf looked likely as he was travelling well, but we simply can't be sure.

Happy to watch the race and if he blows the field away and looks mustard I'll reconsider at what I imagine will be around 8/10's

He didn't even beat Andy Dufresne

And the horse who finished 2nd behind him on hurdles debut is still a maiden some 9 races later, hardly stacking up is it

I've managed to add him via free cash, but I wouldn't have gone out of my way with my festival bank to get him on board. He could well improve, he is still extremely lightly raced, but do agree with Billy about his price being low enough, but because of various factors, as you noted.

The discrepancy in price between himself and Elixir D'Ainay makes little sense to me.

[charlie]

He didn't even beat Andy Dufresne

And the horse who finished 2nd behind him on hurdles debut is still a maiden some 9 races later, hardly stacking up is it

I've managed to add him via free cash, but I wouldn't have gone out of my way with my festival bank to get him on board. He could well improve, he is still extremely lightly raced, but do agree with Billy about his price being low enough, but because of various factors, as you noted.

The discrepancy in price between himself and Elixir D'Ainay makes little sense to me.

Haha oh yeh durrrrrrr

It's one of those ones where it's easy to knock and look foolish very quickly, or go the other way and look like you've save a point. We'll see