Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

There is no doubt that Envoi is looked upon/respected by the racing world as a top, top NH horse even at this stage in his career. It's brilliant to have a horse with his wide reputation that we can all latch onto and enjoy watching. He is clearly looked upon by all the trainers both sides of the water as the best out there and the one to beat. That's why he's 9/4.

[Istabraq]

Yep, agree Lobos, the game needs stars and Envoi is certainly one to get excited about...

[Kevloaf]

I agree about I wouldn't look into missing prices on the way down as like many have said it takes next to nowt to move them anyway and they can trim one to go shortest price on a horse if they don't want to lay it(or are happy to at a rotten price)
Come on someone must work for a bookies on here or been an odds compiler

A couple of lurkers are for sure... they'll never reveal themselves

[Lobos]

A couple of lurkers are for sure... they'll never reveal themselves

Agree, there must be a couple on here.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

It's maths, there is no view to take.

It is literally the opposite of what you've said. In % terms, it is the opposite of drastic (will need someone to fact check this I might have it wrong - apologies if so)

3/1 to 9/4 = 18.75% decrease

10/1 to 8/1 = 20% decrease

33/1 to 25/1 = 24.24% decrease



Your point is that they've bypassed some of the odds they could have.... which for me is meaningless, as it's within 1 point, so getting caught up in the 'levels' they've missed is not worth any time. The figures above highlight this... in my opinion

I hear you Kev but....

Based on pure mathematics you can’t compare a simple % increase / decrease from a large value with a small value. The smaller an absolute value the more marked the % increase / decrease is. Same with investing. A company will never continue to grow by the same % year after year because, mathematically, it becomes harder to do that as the absolute value required to do that becomes greater and greater.

[Lobos]

I'd imagine 90% on here have already taken half decent odds about Envoi. If you haven't, then don't bother now. Might as well wait until NRNB now. That would be my advice anyway.

[Kevloaf]

I hear you Kev but....

Based on pure mathematics you can’t compare a simple % increase / decrease from a large value with a small value. The smaller an absolute value the more marked the % increase / decrease is. Same with investing. A company will never continue to grow by the same % year after year because, mathematically, it becomes harder to do that as the absolute value required to do that becomes greater and greater.

Does that disprove the point I was making though?

That it's not a dramatic cut?


I understand the concept of what you're saying (I think ) and I appreciate that just because 33/1 goes to 25/1 doesn't mean it's a much more significant cut than 3/1 to 9/4 - but they're not far apart... that's the point I was trying to make, after being challenged on it?

[Lobos]

Everyone seems to be focusing so much on Envoi plummeting in the betting for the Marsh that they have missed Chantry House quietly moving in the right direction as well. He's now a general 16/1. Whilst Envoi looks the winner of this race, if he were to have a mishap then CH would be a very able deputy. 5/6 horses around him in the Marsh betting won't run in the race so CH will start low single figure 2nd fav for the race should his season go as planned. He's a must as cover for the Messiah.Get on boys and girls.

[Lobos]

For anyone that cares, Envoi can still be backed at 5/2 to win either the Marsh or RSA. Sky bet RAB

[Middle_Of_March]

I know I’ve already called Dickie Diver as the absolute good thing that he is for the NH Chase in March but I also quite like the profile of Five O Clock for the race. So there’s your forecast folks. Both 33s.

Although the latter, like Galvin are all playing for places as Dickie Diver, if staying injury free and gets plotted for the race like I suspect he will, is the one. He’s the one. I can see it in the stars lads.

[ComplyOrDie]

I know I’ve already called Dickie Diver as the absolute good thing that he is for the NH Chase in March but I also quite like the profile of Five O Clock for the race. So there’s your forecast folks. Both 33s.

Although the latter, like Galvin are all playing for places as Dickie Diver, if staying injury free and gets plotted for the race like I suspect he will, is the one. He’s the one. I can see it in the stars lads.

Hope you're right MOM, been on board for some time too

[charlie]

I know I’ve already called Dickie Diver as the absolute good thing that he is for the NH Chase in March but I also quite like the profile of Five O Clock for the race. So there’s your forecast folks. Both 33s.

Although the latter, like Galvin are all playing for places as Dickie Diver, if staying injury free and gets plotted for the race like I suspect he will, is the one. He’s the one. I can see it in the stars lads.

Haha I love it - a 4.43am NHC straight forecast, in October . I love this place

[JackieMoon33]

Haha I love it - a 4.43am NHC straight forecast, in October . I love this place

Ballsy. Not even wasting time with the reverse

[Kevloaf]

Might as well nail the tricast,..

Galvin - Codd
Dickie Diver - O'Connor
Five O'clock - Patrick

[JackieMoon33]

Might as well nail the tricast,..

Galvin - Codd
Dickie Diver - O'Connor
Five O'clock - Patrick

You both have the wrong Ricci/Mullins horse though...