Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

9/4 for a race in March is a poor antepost bet for a race over obstacles.

Worse than backing a fav to win a Guineas at 9/4 at Christmas, where they has nothing to jump.

Anyone wanting 9/4 may as well back horses running tomorrow instead, where form, opponents and actually getting a run-for-your money (NRNB) is known.

[Kevloaf]

9/4 for a race in March is a poor antepost bet for a race over obstacles.

Worse than backing a fav to win a Guineas at 9/4 at Christmas, where they has nothing to jump.

Anyone wanting 9/4 may as well back horses running tomorrow instead, where form, opponents and actually getting a run-for-your money (NRNB) is known.

All true.

I'd hazard a guess that nobody on here would be backing Envoi Allen in a single at 9/4 though now.



I've only just twigged that Eden Hazard's, Hazard, is the same spelling as hazard, as in hazard perception. A bit like Thierry Henry and Henry.

How have I never noticed that.

I'm going to call him Eden hazard(perception) from now on. Without the perception.

Jesus this isn't worth typing out.

[EnvoyAllen]

It's less than 1 point to be fair


Not heard anything.... the suggestion the stable tours are a bit more wideley available is a potential reason?

Or the flat is coming to an end and they don't want any more bets on it at 3/1

I don't know, he was already a bit too short at 3/1 for us folk that've been looking at this market since March?

I’d have to disagree more than slightly Kev with your reference to ‘its less than 1 point.......’.

A cut from 3/1 to 9/4 overnight (I was very surprised when I saw it, as it’s pretty rare overnight, with no reaction to a performance on track, per se) is a pretty substantial % decrease. Bypassing 11/4, 5/2 ‘offers’ too.

You’re absolutely right, it is less than a point, but in % terms it’s fairly dramatic, certainly overnight.

That’s only my view, of course.

[Kevloaf]

I’d have to disagree more than slightly Kev with your reference to ‘its less than 1 point.......’.

A cut from 3/1 to 9/4 overnight (I was very surprised when I saw it, as it’s pretty rare overnight, with no reaction to a performance on track, per se) is a pretty substantial % decrease. Bypassing 11/4, 5/2 ‘offers’ too.

You’re absolutely right, it is less than a point, but in % terms it’s fairly dramatic, certainly overnight.

That’s only my view, of course.

It's maths, there is no view to take.

It is literally the opposite of what you've said. In % terms, it is the opposite of drastic (will need someone to fact check this I might have it wrong - apologies if so)

3/1 to 9/4 = 18.75% decrease

10/1 to 8/1 = 20% decrease

33/1 to 25/1 = 24.24% decrease



Your point is that they've bypassed some of the odds they could have.... which for me is meaningless, as it's within 1 point, so getting caught up in the 'levels' they've missed is not worth any time. The figures above highlight this... in my opinion

[DeeBee]

I think it'd be a bit more strategic than that, in that they'd get together as the NH Season is starting and make some decisions....and this Friday isn't that bizarre - they only have 6 races to focus on tomorrow anyway

Haha yeah no doubting they have a review and probably do so every week or few days... has it just been hills you could put it down to that... but all bookies having a review on the same day and coming to the same conclusion doesn’t seem likely

[The King Pimm]

All part of the Ultima plot...

The way he jumped today they’ll need to bring in some betters script writers as he was really poor. That said The Wolf Of Windlesham was very impressive, jumped and travelled with confidence throughout.

[The King Pimm]

Could be the slowest horse in training ? Getting left behind at most fences

He was really poor wasn’t he, I was gutted as I thought he’d be decent over fences. Maybe it’s Olly Murphy, most of his best hurdlers have struggled over fences, I can’t think of many if any of his horses that have jumped consistently, Itchy Feet did well to win the Sciliy Isles and fell at Cheltenham and the rest of his stable aren’t that skilled either.

[Quevega]

Does it matter that Envoi Allen has been cut in price overnight.
Does the price change give the horse a better chance of winning ?
If the exchange is a similar price then I'd definitely recommend people lay off a bit (if they're already heavily involved)

[EnvoyAllen]

It's maths, there is no view to take.

It is literally the opposite of what you've said. In % terms, it is the opposite of drastic (will need someone to fact check this I might have it wrong - apologies if so)

3/1 to 9/4 = 18.75% decrease

10/1 to 8/1 = 20% decrease

33/1 to 25/1 = 24.24% decrease



Your point is that they've bypassed some of the odds they could have.... which for me is meaningless, as it's within 1 point, so getting caught up in the 'levels' they've missed is not worth any time. The figures above highlight this... in my opinion

I just feel it’s still a very rare occurrence.

The only way a horse would shorten from 3/1 to 9/4 say before the Gold Cup with an on course bookmaker would be if a punter placed a £10,000 bet on the nose, thus increasing the bookmakers liability for that horse.

Unless a huge bet has been placed with William Hill overnight, which is entirely credible, i find it strange to go 9/4 from 3/1.

Like a few others, I’ve started backing him (reasonably well) at 7/1 six months back, and he’s shortened several times based solely on the weight of money/liability.

Just a strange one you rarely see, and an odd figure.

[Kevloaf]

Haha yeah no doubting they have a review and probably do so every week or few days... has it just been hills you could put it down to that... but all bookies having a review on the same day and coming to the same conclusion doesn’t seem likely

I'd put it down to automated software myself

[Kevloaf]

I just feel it’s still a very rare occurrence.

The only way a horse would shorten from 3/1 to 9/4 say before the Gold Cup with an on course bookmaker would be if a punter placed a £10,000 bet on the nose, thus increasing the bookmakers liability for that horse.

Unless a huge bet has been placed with William Hill overnight, which is entirely credible, i find it strange to go 9/4 from 3/1.

Like a few others, I’ve started backing him (reasonably well) at 7/1 six months back, and he’s shortened several times based solely on the weight of money/liability.

Just a strange one you rarely see, and an odd figure.

You're reading way too much in to it.

Comparing this move to an on course bookmaker taking a bet the night before the Gold Cup means I've lost all interest too.

No offense, ofcourse

[Quevega]

I just feel it’s still a very rare occurrence.

The only way a horse would shorten from 3/1 to 9/4 say before the Gold Cup with an on course bookmaker would be if a punter placed a £10,000 bet on the nose, thus increasing the bookmakers liability for that horse.

Unless a huge bet has been placed with William Hill overnight, which is entirely credible, i find it strange to go 9/4 from 3/1.

Like a few others, I’ve started backing him (reasonably well) at 7/1 six months back, and he’s shortened several times based solely on the weight of money/liability.

Just a strange one you rarely see, and an odd figure.

The liability is absolutely peanuts, in comparison to money bet on the day.
They're just playing with punters.

[Outlaw]

It's maths, there is no view to take.

It is literally the opposite of what you've said. In % terms, it is the opposite of drastic (will need someone to fact check this I might have it wrong - apologies if so)

3/1 to 9/4 = 18.75% decrease

10/1 to 8/1 = 20% decrease

33/1 to 25/1 = 24.24% decrease



Your point is that they've bypassed some of the odds they could have.... which for me is meaningless, as it's within 1 point, so getting caught up in the 'levels' they've missed is not worth any time. The figures above highlight this... in my opinion

I'm not 100% and would think antepost is different to day to day punting but that's not how bookies go usually is it? as with that logic the amount of money to drive down 10s to 8s would be more than 3s to 9/4 yet a bookie will take more on the 3s to 9/4 as the liabilities are smaller?

My understanding is as it's "building a book" everything is to do with over-rounds of implied chance rather than % of number reduction in relation to previous number.
so in the example a 3/1 shot is circa 25% chance of winning in theory a 9/4 shot is 31% so 6% swing on the books.
A 10/1 shot would be 9% and into 8/1 11% so only a 2% swing and less money required to do so as you would expect given the liability is shorter.

Anyone with more understanding or with good insight into how antepost pricing goes it would be interesting for them to explain, i can appreciate 10bob trims a price antepost these days but would be interesting non the less.

[Kevloaf]

They aren't laying on the exchanges yet for the full amounts, so they're not even close to 100% (or 117%) that they'd actually balance the books on?

The ante post markets are so small relative to whatever the day off race markets would be and my best guess would be that they'd make so much more in non runners than any ante post liability they racked up.



Would be good to get it cleared up. I don't feel like 3/1 to 9/4 is particularly weird. We've only missed 11/4 and 5/2 ... I think they've deliberately cut the price as they don't want to take any more on him for now.... not because someone has put 10k on, but still a decision made.

[Outlaw]

They aren't laying on the exchanges yet for the full amounts, so they're not even close to 100% (or 117%) that they'd actually balance the books on?

The ante post markets are so small relative to whatever the day off race markets would be and my best guess would be that they'd make so much more in non runners than any ante post liability they racked up.



Would be good to get it cleared up. I don't feel like 3/1 to 9/4 is particularly weird. We've only missed 11/4 and 5/2 ... I think they've deliberately cut the price as they don't want to take any more on him for now.... not because someone has put 10k on, but still a decision made.

I agree about I wouldn't look into missing prices on the way down as like many have said it takes next to nowt to move them anyway and they can trim one to go shortest price on a horse if they don't want to lay it(or are happy to at a rotten price)
Come on someone must work for a bookies on here or been an odds compiler