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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie
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Won it with Dynamite dollars in 18 so hopefully same result and onto the Arkel trial in Nov to see if he can handle the track with no excuses. -
I've backed Pic D'Orhy and I'm annoyed about it.
He's not a grade 1 horse.
Nicholls talking him up, and having him fit first time out is going to over egg his actual chance.
It's recorded on these meaningless pages that I didn't think he was a good Cheltenham bet last year, yet still backed him (33/1
) when he picked up his big win.
He isn't a grade 1, festival horse.
Almost embrassingly, I've backed him for the Arkle, I'll let him win on debut and keep the bet, but I should cash out really....if I remember how gambling works.Comment
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You may be right on certain parts of this statement but interested to know why you seem so certain he isn’t/can’t be a grade 1 Kev?Originally posted by KevloafI've backed Pic D'Orhy and I'm annoyed about it.
He's not a grade 1 horse.
Nicholls talking him up, and having him fit first time out is going to over egg his actual chance.
It's recorded on these meaningless pages that I didn't think he was a good Cheltenham bet last year, yet still backed him (33/1 ) when he picked up his big win.
He isn't a grade 1, festival horse.
Almost embrassingly, I've backed him for the Arkle, I'll let him win on debut and keep the bet, but I should cash out really....if I remember how gambling works.
At the minute we have probably all backed him after positive update and Nicholls mentioning him as a proper chaser and 2miler. He also has some very smart form from France (Graded 1 and 2), as a juvenile, yes he flopped when over here in the triumph. Time will tell whether that is the track or something else.
Like most juveniles he had a poor season the year after but still managed to pick up the betfair hurdle carrying second top weight. The season cutting short may be a blessing for him.
He was surely a no brainer to chance at the price, update, trainers target etc? Ultimately we won’t know until he goes chasing but I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss him. If you are right and he doesn’t look good enough can cash it out but I think he may prove himself this year as grade 1 chaser whether that’s at Cheltenham or not hopefully he takes up the same race as Dynamite Dollars did so we can hopefully dismiss the track concerns.Comment
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I don't think I expressed my thoughts that well above.
Essentially, I think I've only backed him because I think Paul Nicholls is excellent. I think the horse will need a big step up from his hurdles form and whilst that's always a possibility, it shouldn't be assumed and I feel I have assumed it.
Nicholls will have him ready to do himself justice FTO (IMO) and that'll make him look a little bit better than he actually is with regards to where he'll be in March.
I think other horses will surpass him during the season and I'll end up holding on to my bet anyway...but he'll be too short and the 33/1 I have, will be accurate rather than value.Comment
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Chances are you may well end up correct, but at 25/1 he is a solid E/W bet, IMO. He is already a G3, G2 & G1 placed horse from his French form, and also a G3 winning hurdler over these shores, in a race that has been won by many that have turned out to be absolute dross, but also housed winners such as My Tent Or Yours and Zarkandar, who was trained by Paul Nicholls also, and went on to multiple graded victories thereafter.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI've backed Pic D'Orhy and I'm annoyed about it.
He's not a grade 1 horse.
Nicholls talking him up, and having him fit first time out is going to over egg his actual chance.
It's recorded on these meaningless pages that I didn't think he was a good Cheltenham bet last year, yet still backed him (33/1 ) when he picked up his big win.
He isn't a grade 1, festival horse.
Almost embrassingly, I've backed him for the Arkle, I'll let him win on debut and keep the bet, but I should cash out really....if I remember how gambling works.
It is unfair to compare Zarkandar and Pic D'Orhy though on their Cheltenham run, as Nicholls had a hell of a lot more time to get Zarkandar ready for a Triumph, as opposed to PD, which is why I would give him the benefit of the doubt with regards to his Triumph run.
I think it's a case of time will tell with PD, he could go on to be as good as Zarkandar was (albeit over hurdles for him) or he could end up like one of the lesser types to have won a Betfair Hurdle.
He's not a big winner for me, as I was waiting on an entry, but will likely back him again today now.Comment
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"Just the 3 runners in the novice chase at Ffos Las on Sunday, but the trio are Emitom, Fiddlerontheroof & If The Cap Fits."
Brave of those connections to take up the entries.Comment
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Don't start handing out bravery awards for running horses in novice chases Jackie.Originally posted by JackieMoon33"Just the 3 runners in the novice chase at Ffos Las on Sunday, but the trio are Emitom, Fiddlerontheroof & If The Cap Fits."
Brave of those connections to take up the entries.
And they've not all lined up yet.
Olly might not sleep well and bottle it.Comment
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Hahah Harry Fry is such a cautious trainer I wouldn't put it past him!Originally posted by QuevegaComment
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It's brave in comparison to the weak affairs we have at this time most years. Most trainers will dodge a real contest until they run at the festival so I'm all for this, even if I do have to send a medal in the post.Originally posted by Quevega View PostComment
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That'll be a tactical affair you'd feel, and probably won't help an awful lot with regards to the festival, a 2-2m4f horse against two staying types. I'd expect Emitom to have to try and burn them off from the front with a race fitness advantage, but ITCF is not short of a combination of pace/stamina so he would probably be the winner for me, if he is fit enough.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post"Just the 3 runners in the novice chase at Ffos Las on Sunday, but the trio are Emitom, Fiddlerontheroof & If The Cap Fits."
Brave of those connections to take up the entries.
I'll be impressed if Fiddlerontheroof can go with them tbh.Comment
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Originally posted by Hardy Eustace
Always get them two mixed up
Harry's the Harry Potter one isn't he ?Comment
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Originally posted by Quevega
Always get them two mixed up
Harry's the Harry Potter one isn't he ?
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Agree. The only thing we will learn is if they can jump ok.Originally posted by ComplyOrDieComment
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Galvin still 20s with Bfred for anyone wantingFat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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12/1 as at 12.26 TR, hopefully you hoovered up the 20s and scared them into cutting...Originally posted by TigerRolllllllComment
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