Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[ComplyOrDie]

RSA - Dickie Diver @ 66/1 EW makes plenty of appeal (bigger on the exchange). People are naturally looking to this year's Albert Bartlett to find the RSA winner but I think it could pay to look back to 2019. DD finished an eye-catching 4th, finishing well after not getting a clear run. He's a massive horse that came to Henderson with a big reputation and having missed last season he's been completely forgotten in the market.

Yeah, he's one I backed early on Charlie, though was hoping he'd be more of a NH Chase type, despite Hendersons really poor record in the race!

[taylorch1990]

RSA - Dickie Diver @ 66/1 EW makes plenty of appeal (bigger on the exchange). People are naturally looking to this year's Albert Bartlett to find the RSA winner but I think it could pay to look back to 2019. DD finished an eye-catching 4th, finishing well after not getting a clear run. He's a massive horse that came to Henderson with a big reputation and having missed last season he's been completely forgotten in the market.

Totally agree I backed him a month or so ago. 66s is massive as the Bartlett form is rock solid and he was always thought of as a chaser. Another one with a similar profile I like is Next Destination. But he's missed 2 seasons and I think 33s is just a touch skinny to risk.

[Saxon Warrior]

Felix Desjy must have recovered from when Keith buried him at a hurdle in Galway.

He is entered up at Punchestown on Tuesday for the long-awaited first chase of his career.

2M3&1/2F Beginners Chase.

Definitely another one that Giggys and Gordon have in the Novice Chase mix this season.

It will be fascinating to see how FD jumps, and at what pace, and if he stays the mid-trip okay.

Another one for the Marsh.

[The Beast]

I don't get the big hurrah over AB form from last season. Monkfish , Latest Exhibition , Fury Road and Thyme Hill all finished in a heap yet bookies price them up as though they got RSA to themselves.

I know Fury Road confirmed he staying over hurdles but just dont get it , they all cant be world beaters. if any of them were the second coming surely daylight between places would evidence this.

Prefer to look elsewhere for RSA winner personally at more value and realistic prices , mainly the two Big Getaway and The Big Breakaway.

[nortonscoin200]

Felix Desjy must have recovered from when Keith buried him at a hurdle in Galway.

He is entered up at Punchestown on Tuesday for the long-awaited first chase of his career.

2M3&1/2F Beginners Chase.

Definitely another one that Giggys and Gordon have in the Novice Chase mix this season.

It will be fascinating to see how FD jumps, and at what pace, and if he stays the mid-trip okay.

Another one for the Marsh.

Looking like Marsh rather than Arkle, Saxon?

[Craigy14]

As per HoC diary - Commander of Fleet is back in training. If he can transfer his hurdles form to fences, and the injury hasn't affected him, he will be a big player in the RSA. Perhaps one of the reasons that they are keeping Fury Road to hurdles.....

1pt ew 33/1

Was waiting on some news about COF.

Definitely one of interest, stays 3m and with Cheltenham form he’ll likely be a big player. Was 50/1 yesterday annoyed I didn’t take it after the Fury Road news was confirmed.

[Saxon Warrior]

Looking like Marsh rather than Arkle, Saxon?

No, I don’t think that’s a decision made yet.

I was pointing to the fact that he is entered to start over a mid-trip, so it’s not impossible if he ran, and ran well, over it next week, that the Marsh comes into focus.

I think we would all think that if Felix Desjy is still the same as he was as a hurdler 18 months ago, that the Arkle would suit more.

I’ve already been lucky enough to have got him in a small stake rollover for the Arkle (with Serpentine’s 33/1 Derby win), so I’ve no need to back him at all for the Arkle from hereon in.

I’ve had a bit at around 100/1 on the exchange today, for the Marsh - just in case.

[The King Pimm]

I’ve backed Fusil Raffles in the Hills TWAR market just now. He makes his Chase debut in the UK tomorrow in a very decent looking race at Utoexter (I cant spell it!!). The owners have a good record and representation in the novice graded chases at the Festival. I didn’t realise he’s still 5 so happy to give him a go. A highly rated hurdler with the build of a chaser he could improve?? At 27/1 with boost with Hills he’s potentially very juicy if he does well tomorrow

[Ray]

I’ve backed Fusil Raffles in the Hills TWAR market just now. He makes his Chase debut in the UK tomorrow in a very decent looking race at Utoexter (I cant spell it!!). The owners have a good record and representation in the novice graded chases at the Festival. I didn’t realise he’s still 5 so happy to give him a go. A highly rated hurdler with the build of a chaser he could improve?? At 27/1 with boost with Hills he’s potentially very juicy if he does well tomorrow

Is he an AQPS bred horse? Im sure i read he was like epatante

[The King Pimm]

Is he an AQPS bred horse? Im sure i read he was like epatante

I don’t know Ray, that’s way above my knowledge level. I know it’s to do with breeding and bloodstock but not sure what impact it has on a horses ability other than he’s not a thoroughbred. Hopefully we’ll find out tomorrow if he can translate some of his earlier hurdles form over fences. He’s the expected favourite for the race tomorrow but there has been little if not mention of him on here for a while now so he may one of this seasons surprises??

[YoungHustler]

I don't get the big hurrah over AB form from last season. Monkfish , Latest Exhibition , Fury Road and Thyme Hill all finished in a heap yet bookies price them up as though they got RSA to themselves.

I know Fury Road confirmed he staying over hurdles but just dont get it , they all cant be world beaters. if any of them were the second coming surely daylight between places would evidence this.

Prefer to look elsewhere for RSA winner personally at more value and realistic prices , mainly the two Big Getaway and The Big Breakaway.

Agree with you Beast. I took an early stance that the top from last year's Ballymore were better than the 4 from the AB so have punted accordingly so far until proven wrong.

[jono]

More often then not it would pay to dismiss a bunched finish with 4 horses finishing 1.5L apart. However...
They were the top 4 in the market.
The betting suggested there was little between those 4 with prices of 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 5/1, which ended up being the case.
It also suggested there was a gap between the quartet and the rest of the field (No others horses were single figures) which also ended up being the case with them pulling 10 lengths clear.
The outcome of the race played out as the market suggested.

Whether the Ballymore or other lines of form turn out stronger in hindsight is certainly up for debate but i'm personally not using the bunched finish, in this instance to dismiss their claims going forward. I think they are all very good horses. The 2019 RSA (TOTG, Santini, Delta Work) comes to mind and wasn't too dissimilar...2.25L between the 3, pulling well clear (16L) of the rest. (Granted those 3 had more form built up proving their ability before that race)

[Hurdles or chasing]

Could do with getting Early Doors added to the NHC market if anybody can. A lot to like about him. Second season novice already had 5 runs over fences and just won a big handicap. Headgear on and the money down he could go close.

we might have all been a year early last year.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Could do with getting Early Doors added to the NHC market if anybody can. A lot to like about him. Second season novice already had 5 runs over fences and just won a big handicap. Headgear on and the money down he could go close.

we might have all been a year early last year.

He's 25/1 TWAR - I took this earlier in the week. He's one that could have several targets and the Any Race price is bigger than I expected. It isn't difficult to see him ending up as a favourite for a handicap but I do like him as a NH Chase horse.

[Craigy14]

More often then not it would pay to dismiss a bunched finish with 4 horses finishing 1.5L apart. However...
They were the top 4 in the market.
The betting suggested there was little between those 4 with prices of 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 5/1, which ended up being the case.
It also suggested there was a gap between the quartet and the rest of the field (No others horses were single figures) which also ended up being the case with them pulling 10 lengths clear.
The outcome of the race played out as the market suggested.

Whether the Ballymore or other lines of form turn out stronger in hindsight is certainly up for debate but i'm personally not using the bunched finish, in this instance to dismiss their claims going forward. I think they are all very good horses. The 2019 RSA (TOTG, Santini, Delta Work) comes to mind and wasn't too dissimilar...2.25L between the 3, pulling well clear (16L) of the rest. (Granted those 3 had more form built up proving their ability before that race)

I would agree with this as well Jojo, the front 4 pulled well clear of the rest in the AB.

Envoi obviously was the class act in the Ballymore and as you say there is no telling which form will hold up best it’s all guesswork.

But given Thyme Hill was only beaten a couple of lengths in the bumper by EA and that bumper does look strong on paper, his hurdle form also held up all season and ran a blinder in the AB so I would say both look very strong renewals and it would be brave to suggest one form is well ahead of the other just because of the bunch finish.