Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Star Of A Gunner]

Yes Jackie, check out the web site, had a very good Cheltenham, hope it’s ok to paste this here if not please delete.

Many nice looking antepost bets went astray at Cheltenham. However, our old friend The Conditional (20/1) and the exciting Ferny Hollow (33/1) landed the Ultima Handicap Chase and the Champion Bumper respectively, which ensured a healthy profit. I was extremely disappointed that we didn’t taste further antepost success with Galvin (9/1), Minella Indo (12/1) and Dynamite Dollars (40/1) all finishing second, while A Plus Tard (20/1), Allmankind (20/1) and Lostintranslation (14/1) all placed third.

The Bossses Oscar (20/1) also hit the woodwork when placing fifth in the concluding Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. Thankfully they were all advised each-way.

Those successes, and indeed narrow misses, were accompanied by the victories of Epatante (10/3), Honeysuckle (11/4), Envoi Allen (1/1), Simply The Betts (4/1), Concertista (5/1), Saint Roi (8/1) and Chosen Mate (7/1), many of whom ran out extremely impressive winners. While Third Wind (12/1), Ronald Pump (10/1 w/o fav), Plan Of Attack (10/1) and Shantou Flyer (15/2) all rewarded each-way support.

Indeed, I was surprised when a follower informed me that 23 of the 28 horses advised across the four daily previews had either won or hit the frame. Naturally, it is always nice to feel that you have had a run for your money, and I think that we can safely say that we did given that rather interesting statistic.

[Lobos]

Yes Jackie, check out the web site, had a very good Cheltenham, hope it’s ok to paste this here if not please delete.

Many nice looking antepost bets went astray at Cheltenham. However, our old friend The Conditional (20/1) and the exciting Ferny Hollow (33/1) landed the Ultima Handicap Chase and the Champion Bumper respectively, which ensured a healthy profit. I was extremely disappointed that we didn’t taste further antepost success with Galvin (9/1), Minella Indo (12/1) and Dynamite Dollars (40/1) all finishing second, while A Plus Tard (20/1), Allmankind (20/1) and Lostintranslation (14/1) all placed third.

The Bossses Oscar (20/1) also hit the woodwork when placing fifth in the concluding Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. Thankfully they were all advised each-way.

Those successes, and indeed narrow misses, were accompanied by the victories of Epatante (10/3), Honeysuckle (11/4), Envoi Allen (1/1), Simply The Betts (4/1), Concertista (5/1), Saint Roi (8/1) and Chosen Mate (7/1), many of whom ran out extremely impressive winners. While Third Wind (12/1), Ronald Pump (10/1 w/o fav), Plan Of Attack (10/1) and Shantou Flyer (15/2) all rewarded each-way support.

Indeed, I was surprised when a follower informed me that 23 of the 28 horses advised across the four daily previews had either won or hit the frame. Naturally, it is always nice to feel that you have had a run for your money, and I think that we can safely say that we did given that rather interesting statistic.

Bloody hell! That sort of tipping would blow all of us out of the window!! Crazy good.

[Star Of A Gunner]

Mental isn’t it Lobos, the first AP he put up was FH very early in the summer I seem to remember.

[JackieMoon33]

Mental isn’t it Lobos, the first AP he put up was FH very early in the summer I seem to remember.

He certainly had a great 2020 festival. Luckily all three of his selections have been well touted on here already for some time so hopefully everyone had secured their price.

It's annoying that there is another market mover out there though making AP betting even more challenging.

[Lobos]

Mental isn’t it Lobos, the first AP he put up was FH very early in the summer I seem to remember.

Several on here have got biggest price on all of those so perhaps he's masquerading on here !!

[nortonscoin200]

Take another look at his cross form over 2 miles Lobos. Then tell me why you think he ran in the Bartlett?

Glad to see you're about to become a fully paid-up member of the Janidil fan club Spectre. I've been banging on about this horse since I joined the forum.

The Albert Bartlett wasn't a spur-of-the moment decision. Willie talked about how he thought Janidil might be suited by the AB back in February and that confirmed my view of his 2m campaign - that stamina could be his forte.

I too was mystified by the hold-up ride Mark Walsh gave him at Cheltenham - and was slightly disappointed at the outcome. But he still ran a decent race. And look what the last horse to finish fifth in the AB achieved the following season....Lisnagar Oscar (I hope you're on Spectre).

Getting back to Janidil, I've backed him at 75-1 each way for the Stayers, 50-1 for the NH Chase and 22-1 TWAR.

He's on a hurdle mark of 149 now and I'd be surprised to see him turn up in the County or Coral Cup. The Stayers is more likely IMO but he'll be seven next year so unless they really fancy him for the Stayers I reckon chasing is more likely.

Here's what I wrote about Janidil in my ante-post diary in May:


I just want to highlight Janidil as a speculative punt for the National Hunt Chase.

He's 50-1 with Unibet but could well be favourite IF he lines up on the day. And yes I accept that's a big IF but at 50-1......

I've been trying to work out what target Willie and JP will choose for him at next year's Festival and I don't think the NH Chase is quite so fanciful.

He's six now and picked up 2 big handicap hurdle pots over 2miles this season before finishing fifth in the AB, just over 11 lengths behind Monkfish. I'm a big fan and backed him that day. It was his first try over 3miles and Mark Walsh held him up right out the back. He came through nicely to track the leaders in the straight but he got left behind the front four when things got serious. To be honest I was slightly disappointed but it was a very hot race and MW was asking a lot to win it from out the back.

Janidil's got a lot of options next season.

He could stay hurdling (rated 149) and go for the County Hurdle, Coral Cup or the Stayers Hurdle (best price 66-1).

He could go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle (bp 40-1), the Marsh (not quoted), the RSA (bp 40-1), the NH Chase or even one of the handicaps.

Think it's true Willie prefers the championship races to the handicaps so let's assume that's the way he'll want to go with Janidil who he talked up for the AB in the run up to the Festival even though all his starts for the stable had been over 2 miles (2 1 1 2).

Let's also assume he goes chasing which as he'll be seven next year seems likely.

I think the Arkle is the least likely option for Janidil as his strength is stamina rather than electric pace. Willie could also possibly have Klassical Dream, Elixir D'ainay and maybe even Sagalway and Aramon for the Arkle.

The Marsh is certainly a possibility but that's also probably going to be flying a bit high for Janidil. Willie has The Big Getaway and maybe Elixir D'ainay as likely contenders here - the last named in the same JP ownership as Janidil.

The RSA is also entirely a possibility but Willie has the likely favourite in Monkfish.

So that leaves the NH Chase where I know a lot of people are on Aione at fancy prices. Aione is a great bet and Patrick has already made encouraging remarks that this is his likely target. But if Janidil lines up against Aione I can't see any reason why he won't confirm his 11-length superiority over Aione in the AB.

What about JP's likely novice chase contenders?

Band of Outlaws and Aramax could go chasing and be in the mix over 2m with Elix D'ainay, Andy Dufresne and possibly Early Doors in the Marsh or RSA.

Granted, JP has a weaker hand than Willie in the novice chase division but he usually has a fancied runner in the NH Chase.

At a Festival preview Patrick Mullins said Mark Walsh absolutely loves Janidil and Patrick himself said it was exceptional for a novice hurdler to win two big open handicaps in his debut season.

And the fact that Willie was already thinking in terms of the AB despite Janidil's success over 2m makes me think a small interest in 50-1 for the NH Chase is not completely daft.

If Janidil does go chasing we are unlikely to find out his absolute target until March so there might be a bit of wriggle room to lay off some of the 50-1 if the NH Chase is still a possibility.

[The Beast]

Nice write up NC.

Had Janidil covered last season and was slightly disappointed how they campaigned him at festival if i am honest. Thought it was a big ask to step him up so steeply in trip for AB.

So it was very encouraging how well he ran and certainly on my radar for this season , possible a bet in the any race market after last season guessing games with mullins.

[Spectre]

Glad to see you're about to become a fully paid-up member of the Janidil fan club Spectre. I've been banging on about this horse since I joined the forum.

The Albert Bartlett wasn't a spur-of-the moment decision. Willie talked about how he thought Janidil might be suited by the AB back in February and that confirmed my view of his 2m campaign - that stamina could be his forte.

I too was mystified by the hold-up ride Mark Walsh gave him at Cheltenham - and was slightly disappointed at the outcome. But he still ran a decent race. And look what the last horse to finish fifth in the AB achieved the following season....Lisnagar Oscar (I hope you're on Spectre).

Getting back to Janidil, I've backed him at 75-1 each way for the Stayers, 50-1 for the NH Chase and 22-1 TWAR.

He's on a hurdle mark of 149 now and I'd be surprised to see him turn up in the County or Coral Cup. The Stayers is more likely IMO but he'll be seven next year so unless they really fancy him for the Stayers I reckon chasing is more likely.

Here's what I wrote about Janidil in my ante-post diary in May:


I just want to highlight Janidil as a speculative punt for the National Hunt Chase.

He's 50-1 with Unibet but could well be favourite IF he lines up on the day. And yes I accept that's a big IF but at 50-1......

I've been trying to work out what target Willie and JP will choose for him at next year's Festival and I don't think the NH Chase is quite so fanciful.

He's six now and picked up 2 big handicap hurdle pots over 2miles this season before finishing fifth in the AB, just over 11 lengths behind Monkfish. I'm a big fan and backed him that day. It was his first try over 3miles and Mark Walsh held him up right out the back. He came through nicely to track the leaders in the straight but he got left behind the front four when things got serious. To be honest I was slightly disappointed but it was a very hot race and MW was asking a lot to win it from out the back.

Janidil's got a lot of options next season.

He could stay hurdling (rated 149) and go for the County Hurdle, Coral Cup or the Stayers Hurdle (best price 66-1).

He could go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle (bp 40-1), the Marsh (not quoted), the RSA (bp 40-1), the NH Chase or even one of the handicaps.

Think it's true Willie prefers the championship races to the handicaps so let's assume that's the way he'll want to go with Janidil who he talked up for the AB in the run up to the Festival even though all his starts for the stable had been over 2 miles (2 1 1 2).

Let's also assume he goes chasing which as he'll be seven next year seems likely.

I think the Arkle is the least likely option for Janidil as his strength is stamina rather than electric pace. Willie could also possibly have Klassical Dream, Elixir D'ainay and maybe even Sagalway and Aramon for the Arkle.

The Marsh is certainly a possibility but that's also probably going to be flying a bit high for Janidil. Willie has The Big Getaway and maybe Elixir D'ainay as likely contenders here - the last named in the same JP ownership as Janidil.

The RSA is also entirely a possibility but Willie has the likely favourite in Monkfish.

So that leaves the NH Chase where I know a lot of people are on Aione at fancy prices. Aione is a great bet and Patrick has already made encouraging remarks that this is his likely target. But if Janidil lines up against Aione I can't see any reason why he won't confirm his 11-length superiority over Aione in the AB.

What about JP's likely novice chase contenders?

Band of Outlaws and Aramax could go chasing and be in the mix over 2m with Elix D'ainay, Andy Dufresne and possibly Early Doors in the Marsh or RSA.

Granted, JP has a weaker hand than Willie in the novice chase division but he usually has a fancied runner in the NH Chase.

At a Festival preview Patrick Mullins said Mark Walsh absolutely loves Janidil and Patrick himself said it was exceptional for a novice hurdler to win two big open handicaps in his debut season.

And the fact that Willie was already thinking in terms of the AB despite Janidil's success over 2m makes me think a small interest in 50-1 for the NH Chase is not completely daft.

If Janidil does go chasing we are unlikely to find out his absolute target until March so there might be a bit of wriggle room to lay off some of the 50-1 if the NH Chase is still a possibility.

I like the thinking and it's very much the way I like to look at horses that may not have been quite at their best (for whatever reason), but have genuine merit to watch closely next season. Lots of horses that ran in the top five or six, particularly novices, come back and run big races the following season. Generally in either novice chases or plotted for a handicap hurdle.

I still feel there's a whiff about the way Janidil was campaigned, and not necessarily obviously for novice chasing. It wouldn't be the first time that JP got a horse handicapped in graded company in England. Nor with a plan that started a year or more previously. Gordon Elliott is a master of it too. And the icing on the cake was the ride he was given, which if being kind was dubious at best. And as i said, why the step up from two to three if they really thought he was a live one for the Bartlett. Surely he would already have been tried over further if they were serious. Also strange.

Both Willie and JP have previous for horses they believe are graded class running big races in handicaps. If you've got several graded horses for big races only one can win, so the strategy to manage a handicap mark and aim to win one of the most prestigious handicaps at the Festival is surely a good one if you want Festival winners, and you don't want your main rival to steal a march on you. But to do so you have to have a plan. You don't win by accident, you win by plotting your way there. And handicaps at the Festival are all won by graded horses now. Having said all that, you're probably right and I'm most likely wrong and there's no plot. But we can agree that it remains to be seen where he slots in amongst Willie and JP's options next season, and given our combined thoughts he's a prime 'any race' horse.

What I will say is, if I'm right he'll go to a good handicap hurdle first up and finish a never nearer 8th or something similar. Perhaps one more quietish outing before the Festival, and then move on to a Grade 1 at Punchestown. Essentially we'll know first time he's entered up though. So the strategy for me right now is 20/1 any race, and then dive in quickly for a more specific target as soon as he pops up in my tracker.

The encouraging thing is we agree on the horse if not the target, and for very similar reasons. And essentially I'm not too bothered which one of us is right about the target, as long as we get the right result in whichever race he ends up in. Because we'll both be happy and it's vindication of our methods and belief in the horse.

Of course you know all that means he'll bypass the Festival and go to Aintree now!

[nortonscoin200]

Entirely reasonable theory Spectre and you may well be proved right - but as you say, who cares as long as he rocks up and wins at the Festival next year.

But reading your post reminded me that Janidil was entered in about 5 different races at the Festival - including the County and the Coral.

Many people thought he was heading down the handicap route in spite of Willie's comment (made about 3 weeks before the Festival) that the AB could suit him.

So if they were going to plot him for a Festival handicap why didn't they do it this time? He was aged six and a first season novice hurdler - albeit one who'd already landed two big pots in Ireland.

Surely they can't expect his mark to drop by more than a couple of pounds this term however far out the back he finishes in prep races.

It doesn't quite add up for me.

I reckon the handicap hurdle option will only come into play if he flops as a chaser or doesn't look as though he's going to be competitive in the Stayers'.

It's going to be fascinating to see how Janidil's career plays out.

[Captain Chris]

Entirely reasonable theory Spectre and you may well be proved right - but as you say, who cares as long as he rocks up and wins at the Festival next year.

But reading your post reminded me that Janidil was entered in about 5 different races at the Festival - including the County and the Coral.

Many people thought he was heading down the handicap route in spite of Willie's comment (made about 3 weeks before the Festival) that the AB could suit him.

So if they were going to plot him for a Festival handicap why didn't they do it this time? He was aged six and a first season novice hurdler - albeit one who'd already landed two big pots in Ireland.

Surely they can't expect his mark to drop by more than a couple of pounds this term however far out the back he finishes in prep races.

It doesn't quite add up for me.

I reckon the handicap hurdle option will only come into play if he flops as a chaser or doesn't look as though he's going to be competitive in the Stayers'.

It's going to be fascinating to see how Janidil's career plays out.

I don't particularly have an opinion on the horse or his target for next year. However, with regards to your point that they surely would have targeted him at the handicaps this year, JP might have (correctly) assumed that he had them all covered and sent him to the AB to get experience of Cheltenham.
That said, winning two big pots in Ireland isn't usually the approach of a festival handicap plot.

[JackieMoon33]

I don't particularly have an opinion on the horse or his target for next year. However, with regards to your point that they surely would have targeted him at the handicaps this year, JP might have (correctly) assumed that he had them all covered and sent him to the AB to get experience of Cheltenham.
That said, winning two big pots in Ireland isn't usually the approach of a festival handicap plot.

It is when you're only rated 125

I, like many only had him as a betting proposition in the handicaps despite what Willie said. But as you rightly mentioned, JP had Saint Roi and the Dame lined up for the County and Coral respectively so didn't struggle for ammunition in those races.

[Spectre]

Many people thought he was heading down the handicap route in spite of Willie's comment (made about 3 weeks before the Festival) that the AB could suit him.

So if they were going to plot him for a Festival handicap why didn't they do it this time? He was aged six and a first season novice hurdler - albeit one who'd already landed two big pots in Ireland.

The assumption I made about that was that he had Dame De Compagnie for the Coral Cup and Saint Roi for the County. Given how well handicapped those two were, better to be patient and play a longer game with Janidil.

[Quevega]

Much as I like a good plot theory.
There is no way they knew that the other two were good things. There is a danger that the hindsight factor is playing too big a part in this kind of thought process.

Although they won like they had tons in hand, they (connections) would not have been certain they'd run so well, and the races would pan out so favourably on the day.

To win a race at cheltenham you'd much prefer more than one dart. And both trainer and owner are fully aware of this.

The most likely explanation is that
Janidil, was a horse they were unsure of where best for him to run, and they probably didn;t think he was that well handicapped in comparison to others in the stable. And Willie thought he might stay quite well. Simple as that. IMO.

[Ballyfitz]

Any thoughts on Quick Grabim? Fancied as a potential Champion Hurdle horse previously (possibly only by me); entered over fences on Friday / Saturday over 2 miles. A small nibble at the 100/1 on offer for the Arkle is tempting me!

[nortonscoin200]

Much as I like a good plot theory.
There is no way they knew that the other two were good things. There is a danger that the hindsight factor is playing too big a part in this kind of thought process.

Although they won like they had tons in hand, they (connections) would not have been certain they'd run so well, and the races would pan out so favourably on the day.

To win a race at cheltenham you'd much prefer more than one dart. And both trainer and owner are fully aware of this.

The most likely explanation is that
Janidil, was a horse they were unsure of where best for him to run, and they probably didn;t think he was that well handicapped in comparison to others in the stable. And Willie thought he might stay quite well. Simple as that. IMO.

Reckon you may have hit the nail on the head there Q.

So what do you reckon they'll do with him this season?