Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Vautour]

His Betfair stable tour was published on 26 September last year so should get something from him directly in a couple of weeks you’d think.

[Saxon Warrior]

Out to 8/1 for RSA and into 5/2 for the Marsh with Betfair and PP. You’d have to think Gordon has said something to them given he’s sponsored by Betfair.

To me, that’s a statement that says we don’t want to take anymore on the Marsh at present, but you can fill up on him for the RSA with us, if you wish.

It could be a book-balancer, where they are happy to take money for EA on both races, knowing they clean up on one when he doesn’t run in it, and maybe both if he fails to win.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

To me, that’s a statement that says we don’t want to take anymore on the Marsh at present, but you can fill up on him for the RSA with us, if you wish.

It could be a book-balancer, where they are happy to take money for EA on both races, knowing they clean up on one when he doesn’t run in it, and maybe both if he fails to win.

But why push him out for the RSA when you are already industry top price? PP/BFSB are renowned on making these moves correctly, where they are right far more often than not. I’m not suggesting that’d you would want to go steaming in at 3/1 for the Marsh but if that is the race you have already backed him for it can only be considered a good thing in my book and i’ve backed him for both races

[Faugheen_Machine]

But why push him out for the RSA when you are already industry top price? PP/BFSB are renowned on making these moves correctly, where they are right far more often than not. I’m not suggesting that’d you would want to go steaming in at 3/1 for the Marsh but if that is the race you have already backed him for it can only be considered a good thing in my book and i’ve backed him for both races

They were top price for the Marsh for 3 months after the festival so it could be a case of leveling things.

I prefer to think that indicted to someone in Paddy Power/Betfair that his preference is for the Marsh at this stage.

[Kevloaf]

Funny thread.



The nail has been hit on the head at least thrice and some people are still swinging a hammer.

[Quevega]

100% someone at PP is trolling forums like this.
Fucking no money whatsoever on these markets at this stage and they know they can get some play just by arseing about with the prices of Key horses.

[Saxon Warrior]

But why push him out for the RSA when you are already industry top price? PP/BFSB are renowned on making these moves correctly, where they are right far more often than not. I’m not suggesting that’d you would want to go steaming in at 3/1 for the Marsh but if that is the race you have already backed him for it can only be considered a good thing in my book and i’ve backed him for both races

8/1 fills the book to balance it with the Marsh quicker, then they cut it.
7/1 takes longer, and isn’t a standout.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

100% someone at PP is trolling forums like this.
Fucking no money whatsoever on these markets at this stage and they know they can get some play just by arseing about with the prices of Key horses.

You may well by right but we’re in September now and this has been round about the time when we have seen PP/BFSB make these sort of moves on the likes of Samcro and Envoi (last season) regards potential target races. They might just be messing around and getting lucky but they’ve also called them correctly

[Kevloaf]

Do people anticipate Envoi Allen running in the Flogas at the DRF?


I don't expect to see him run over 2m5f before that point.... and I don't know what I'd need to see happen for me to think the RSA was the best race for him after that race.

If he got beat and was staying on, that'd be a bubble burst. If he wins over 2m5f, the Marsh over 2m3f but on the stiffer track up the hill, would still look most likely?




Not really a point worth debating but I don't see where he tries 3 miles pre-Cheltenham.

I'm still very much Marsh, then step up after that

[Hurdles or chasing]

Darver Star schooling over fences https://twitter.com/gavincromwell1/s...682320385?s=09

Really like his chances upped in trip. Only thing stopping me having more on is I think Envoi Allen will end up in the Marsh. Also think Klassical Dream should run here. Dont think they ever got him right last year

[Saxon Warrior]

Do people anticipate Envoi Allen running in the Flogas at the DRF?


I don't expect to see him run over 2m5f before that point.... and I don't know what I'd need to see happen for me to think the RSA was the best race for him after that race.

If he got beat and was staying on, that'd be a bubble burst. If he wins over 2m5f, the Marsh over 2m3f but on the stiffer track up the hill, would still look most likely?




Not really a point worth debating but I don't see where he tries 3 miles pre-Cheltenham.

I'm still very much Marsh, then step up after that

It would probably be the Grade 1 3M Neville Hotels Novice Chase that Gordon targets for his first-time (at the trip) 3M Grade 1 horses, and wins most years, at Leopardstown over Christmas

None of his 4 winners of it in the last 5 years went over 3M until the Neville Hotels race.

Dec 2019 - Battleoverdoyen beat Champagne Classic in a Gordon 1-2
Dec 2018 - Delta Work won for Gordon after debut over 2M3F at Down Royal then the 2M4F Grade 1 Drinmore at the end of Nov/early Dec.
Dec 2017 - Shattered Love won for Gordon,
Dec 2015 - No More Heroes won for Gordon after winning the 2M4F Drinmore, 4 weeks earlier (same as Delta Work)

I would think that if he is ready to run he could go the same route as Delta Work, Down Royal (2M3F), Drinmore Grade 1 (2M4F), and then if he won both of those, then the big reveal of whether he goes 3M at Leopardstown at Christmas.

[Kevloaf]

Darver Star schooling over fences https://twitter.com/gavincromwell1/s...682320385?s=09

Really like his chances upped in trip. Only thing stopping me having more on is I think Envoi Allen will end up in the Marsh. Also think Klassical Dream should run here. Dont think they ever got him right last year

Me too - I think he's a very solid each way bet for the Marsh at the moment.

With cashout, might as well do the Arkle too though....

I am with you though, the step UP in trip I think may bring out some improvement and given he's already BANG THERE on hurdle form with anything else, he's certainly being over looked because of his profile.

[The King Pimm]

I scrambled to get some money on Getaway Trump in the Hills TWAR market after clocking his entry in the 2.15 at Fontwell today with a few minutes to spare. A 3 horse beginners Chase which he finished last in!! I was too busy try to coerce my kids to stop filling my trolley with junk in B&M bargains when the race was on. After seeing the result I’m still trying convince myself this maybe the start of a handicap plot by Paul Nicholls but I can’t buy it. I know he’s a consortium horse so maybe a handicap plot is not out of the question but I think the reality is that he’s not very good at jumping fences. Did anyone watch the race? Is all hope lost? I’m disappointed I threw money at him before he had even run this season since he poor efforts last season.

[BigChaang]

Purely my opinion but I think they’ll all go chasing:
Fiddlerontheroof - Arkle/JLT
Eldorado Allen - Arkle/JLT
Harry Senior - RSA
The Big Breakaway - RSA
Lieutenant Rocco - RSA/NH Chase

Chantry House I’d be fairly confident will go to the Marsh and he was one of my first bets after the festival ended. Funnily enough, he was also one of my first bets for the Ballymore last season along with Shishkin and they did not pan out well

I suppose the the Stable tour's will be out soon J.M.
But i was thinking maybe Harry Senior might go stayers hurdle.
Like Kilbricken storm , although i suppose that was after a chasing start.

[Ballybeen]

I scrambled to get some money on Getaway Trump in the Hills TWAR market after clocking his entry in the 2.15 at Fontwell today with a few minutes to spare. A 3 horse beginners Chase which he finished last in!! I was too busy try to coerce my kids to stop filling my trolley with junk in B&M bargains when the race was on. After seeing the result I’m still trying convince myself this maybe the start of a handicap plot by Paul Nicholls but I can’t buy it. I know he’s a consortium horse so maybe a handicap plot is not out of the question but I think the reality is that he’s not very good at jumping fences. Did anyone watch the race? Is all hope lost? I’m disappointed I threw money at him before he had even run this season since he poor efforts last season.

Was a very poor performance, I just don’t think the horse is very good over fences. The winner put in a great round of jumping though on only his third ever course start. Love watching a front runner just attacking every fence.