Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Craigy14]

I'm not going to panic just yet and I still don't see him running in the RSA. If Gordon says different then I'll have to re-evaluate.

That’s how I feel at the minute.

Although I’ve got him backed in the Marsh in a couple of doubles/multis, he’s covered any race in more than the Marsh, so certainly no panic station yet.

The stable tour may not reveal too much in terms of Cheltenham, we all know he’ll say the usual, he’s been bought as a staying chaser, will get 3m etc etc. I doubt he’ll nail his target to the post. The only possible concern would be if he name drops a starting race at 3m.

[Vautour]

That’s how I feel at the minute.

Although I’ve got him backed in the Marsh in a couple of doubles/multis, he’s covered any race in more than the Marsh, so certainly no panic station yet.

The stable tour may not reveal too much in terms of Cheltenham, we all know he’ll say the usual, he’s been bought as a staying chaser, will get 3m etc etc. I doubt he’ll nail his target to the post. The only possible concern would be if he name drops a starting race at 3m.

I have just checked last year‘s tour and he specified the Ballymore as the likely target so may do the same again

[Saxon Warrior]

Has Gordon Elliott ever been quoted as saying that the Marsh would be the best option, or has it been punters calculated opinion of the target that has forced the price down for the Marsh (over the RSA).

[Craigy14]

I have just checked last year‘s tour and he specified the Ballymore as the likely target so may do the same again

Oh well, maybe he will

[Lobos]

Has Gordon Elliott ever been quoted as saying that the Marsh would be the best option, or is it more punters calculated opinion that has chosen this and forced the price down for the Marsh (over the RSA).

Just punters opinion I think.

[OverTheLast]

That’s how I feel at the minute.

Although I’ve got him backed in the Marsh in a couple of doubles/multis, he’s covered any race in more than the Marsh, so certainly no panic station yet.

The stable tour may not reveal too much in terms of Cheltenham, we all know he’ll say the usual, he’s been bought as a staying chaser, will get 3m etc etc. I doubt he’ll nail his target to the post. The only possible concern would be if he name drops a starting race at 3m.

I'm pretty sure I seen Gordon say somewhere after Cheltenham that Envoi is likely to start in the 2m4f beginners chase at Down Royal - same race as Delta Work and Samcro have won last two years.

[Saxon Warrior]

I'm pretty sure I seen Gordon say somewhere after Cheltenham that Envoi is likely to start in the 2m4f beginners chase at Down Royal - same race as Delta Work and Samcro have won last two years.

That makes sense. Its got to be 1/10 that he starts below 3M, most likely the mid-trip novice chase at Down Royal, then short odds he goes to the Drinmore over 2M4F.

Thats the trainers favourite route for his best staying novices.

No More Heroes, Don Cossack and Delta Work went to one or both of the mid-trip chases at Down Royal then the Drinmore and then ended up in the RSA.

Samcro did both and went to the Marsh.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I was one who felt that Cheveley had some sort of influence on Alloha going down the RSA route last season when the likes of Patrick Mullins were saying he should go for the Marsh. I know Archie in particular thought that Chevley would have no influence over Willie, I’m still not so sure. These quotes definitely concern me as a Marsh backer and have decided to cover for the RSA with cash out. Thanks for sharing Jackie, will still be buying the book. If Cheveley have no influence then I think these comments on EA do not need to hold much weight until we hear the same from Gordy, but would rather cover myself in the meantime.

[Lobos]

I was one who felt that Cheveley had some sort of influence on Alloha going down the RSA route last season when the likes of Patrick Mullins were saying he should go for the Marsh. I know Archie in particular thought that Chevley would have no influence over Willie, I’m still not so sure. These quotes definitely concern me as a Marsh backer and have decided to cover for the RSA with cash out. Thanks for sharing Jackie, will still be buying the book. If Cheveley have no influence then I think these comments on EA do not need to hold much weight until we hear the same from Gordy, but would rather cover myself in the meantime.

Chevely did say last season that no need for Envoi to go up in distance whilst he was winning over 2 miles but he still ended up in the Ballymore. Nothing is set in stone.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Chevely did say last season that no need for Envoi to go up in distance whilst he was winning over 2 miles but he still ended up in the Ballymore. Nothing is set in stone.

Exactly Lobos, which is why those comments don't bother me.

[jonthehammer]

Cedarwood Road form just franked at Down Royal albeit it over hurdles

[Lobos]

Cedarwood Road form just franked at Down Royal albeit it over hurdles

I'm really looking forward to seeing CR run. Just got a good feeling about that one. Wouldn't he surprised to see JP bid for him.

[EnvoyAllen]

So that everyone has more context, I'll provide this to you from the book as it effects a lot of you. I will not post anymore excerpts though as you should buy the book as it's a very good read.

RICHARD THOMPSON
Envoi Allen (Gordon Elliott)
WHAT more can I say about Envoi Allen? I’m sure
we are going to head over fences with him and I
would have thought that the RSA will be his end
of season target. Going up in trip shouldn’t be a
problem, as he was running on well at the end of
the Ballymore, and we will, hopefully, be looking
at the Gold Cup with him at some stage, so I think
the RSA makes sense. He has everything, however,
so has all options open to him, and he enjoyed a
good summer over in Gordon’s.

JAMIE CODD
I COULDN’T leave out envoi allen (who I have
included in each of the past two years) after what
he achieved again last season, despite obviously
not riding him on the track. He was exceptional
throughout the whole of last season, rounding it
off with a great performance in Cheltenham in the
Ballymore, where he certainly wasn’t stopping,
suggesting that he will have no problem in stepping
up in trip. A graduate from Colin Bowe’s yard,
he has always schooled very well at home, and we
are all looking forward to him getting going over
fences. The hope is that he continues to progress
and ends up a Gold Cup horse of the future.

I’d just like to cover something that hasn’t been mentioned yet, with regards to these quotes.

Bearing in mind that a certain percentage of people’s opinions on these forums tend to ‘come from the pocket, rather than the brain’, it’s both instinctive and instructive to look at these quotes (written a few weeks ago for publication, released today on this forum.....) and then immediately look to see how the markets have changed because of them.

They haven’t.

At all.

Not a single tiny % of a point.

I’d like to think that bookmakers hire hundreds of people to ‘dig out’ this kind of information a long time before we get to see it, so that their industry flourishes against the punter- which it does.

Envoi in the Marsh is pretty much 3/1 right across the board.

Envoi in the RSA is widely available at 7/1 with 4 major bookmakers.

Now of course, those prices reflect their liabilities come March, as well as the perceived chance of the horse winning the event.

But one thing bookmakers never do is panic. They work on facts, figures, statistics and truth.

We’ve all read the above linked post and probably all panicked, cashed out bets, covered our bets, and all kinds of weird and wonderful things to get Envoi ‘onside’ for the RSA.

But why?

If every bookmaker had read the quotes from Richard Thompson & Jamie Codd today, (and they would have done), they’d all be all slashing their RSA prices from 7/1 to 4/1 and shorter.

Have they??

They’ve done nothing.

They could react, they’ve got the same information as us punters.

The bookies don’t panic.

Neither should we.

[Quevega]

Sounds like someone's panicking to me

It's all bollocks really.
Not much money at stake yet for sure.
Bookies will happily lay the 7's for a while as they would just be balancing the books in any case.

Gordon will be hoping he has a choice to make next Spring and quite possibly he has a favoured race for the horse in mind. Like seemed obvious with the market last year.

It turned out well for the long term punters last year (even though he shook the market a bit near the end last season).

A good trainer would have an open mind, and would see how the season pans out, look at the ground, weigh up the opposition, think about the horse and then declare it for the race he thinks is best - for winning and for the future good.

[Lobos]

Clear for all to see that pretty much all the money so far has been placed on EA to win the Marsh. Bookies will be very pleased to balance their books somewhat and take money for him on the RSA before the real action starts. I'm sure his RSA price will retract and we are likely to then get another update which throws us all again. It's all a very clever game.