Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kautostar]

Or RSA.

Don't think JP has many RSA contenders, so suspect one will be routed to that race.

Possibly, he could have dickie diver or janidil there depending how their seasons play out

[archie]

I buy it when it comes to the Arkle, less so for races over further. At some point age will slow down a horse, that's a given, as it does with all walks of life. 9 years of age for G1 novice chase, I couldn't entertain it.

I know the point will be made of the Champion Hurdle run, but seriously, look at that field. Sharjah had 1 win under his belt last season, and ultimately ran his best race at the festival, or just come across a weak renewal, the latter is what I believe. Cilaos Emery was reverted from fences, hardly an ideal prep, yet ended up 4th in a Champion Hurdle. Petit Mouchoir, for all that he comes across consistent he hasn't won in now 16 races (including plenty weaker than what a Champion Hurdle should be), yet managed 5th in the race. I think the general opinion on the forum was that it was a pretty weak renewal anyway. So I wouldn't be looking too much into form lines from the race, not for me personally, anyway.

No Espoir D'Allen
No Klassical Dream
No Buveur D'air

The Champion Hurdle was run in just over a second quicker than the Supreme, but I think you can mark up the Supreme a bit more than that given the carnage that occured thanks to Asterion Forlonges inability to jump straight.


I think Kev got it right (and you also noted archie) about Darver Star in the Marsh, it makes the most sense, and is the one race I'd look to back him in for sure. 33/1 is a right decent price for sure, given his proximity to Envoi Allen (who heads the Marsh market) in the Royal Bond.

The Royal Bond was 2 miles and is even more substance to the theory that they will avoid Envoi Allen.

If you're going to bring up Petit Mouchoir, I'd have to remind everyone that he also finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle. The next season? 3rd in the Arkle behind a horse that was seen as very much a stayer over hurdles.

Regardless of which race you think he'll end up in, as long as you can get out of the bet at some stage, it makes no sense at the current prices to back him in one race and not the other. That's with real money, of course. Anything goes with free bets.

[billymag]

Or RSA.

Don't think JP has many RSA contenders, so suspect one will be routed to that race.

Anyone heard how Dicky Diver is? He was very highly thought of before his lay off

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone heard how Dicky Diver is? He was very highly thought of before his lay off

Nope, but I have him down for the NH Chase, then realised Nicky trains him (from memory he has a really poor record in the race).

I've still backed him for it though

[Spectre]

Re splitting Andy dufresne and elixir D’ainay.....jp also has chantry house and sporting John to consider so any 2 could go for the Arkle/marsh

I would imagine Sporting John will go up in trip. And does so now with plenty to prove, particularly around Cheltenham. He also needs to prove he can go left handed.

Chantry House is likely to go to the Marsh you'd think, but I don't think a step up to the RSA is out of the question either.

In either case they're not contending with other horses in the yard for places like Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen, but you still make a good point.

[ComplyOrDie]

I would imagine Sporting John will go up in trip. And does so now with plenty to prove, particularly around Cheltenham. He also needs to prove he can go left handed.

Chantry House is likely to go to the Marsh you'd think, but I don't think a step up to the RSA is out of the question either.

In either case they're not contending with other horses in the yard for places like Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen, but you still make a good point.

I think Chantry House has a high possibility of going down the RSA route myself

[Lobos]

From Gavin Cromwell's lips Lobos:

https://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...on&prid=208196

Doesn't change things at all for me. He'll switch between 2 and 2 1/2 and take on Shiskin and co in Arkle as opposed to Envoi in Marsh. 2 miles at Cheltenham over fences on Good/Soft ground will be perfect for him. I don't envisage him going Marsh at all.

[Kevloaf]

Doesn't change things at all for me. He'll switch between 2 and 2 1/2 and take on Shiskin and co in Arkle as opposed to Envoi in Marsh. 2 miles at Cheltenham over fences on Good/Soft ground will be perfect for him. I don't envisage him going Marsh at all.

The Danestown trainer added, “He’s going to go chasing next year. He jumps really well and hopefully he can make a nice novice chaser. He even jumps a hurdle like a fence.

“It opens up more options for him as he can step up in trip as well. I think he really wants further than two miles and more like two and a half.





Stubborn? No other way to describe your comment there, you've made your decision and despite that very clear statement from the trainer, you say you cannot envisage it? That means you can't even contemplate the fact he might run in the Marsh rather than the Arkle?

You are a dangerous human.

[archie]

Stubborn to put all your eggs in one basket (either basket) this early in the piece.

[Lobos]

The Danestown trainer added, “He’s going to go chasing next year. He jumps really well and hopefully he can make a nice novice chaser. He even jumps a hurdle like a fence.

“It opens up more options for him as he can step up in trip as well. I think he really wants further than two miles and more like two and a half.





Stubborn? No other way to describe your comment there, you've made your decision and despite that very clear statement from the trainer, you say you cannot envisage it? That means you can't even contemplate the fact he might run in the Marsh rather than the Arkle?

You are a dangerous human.

Not 2 1/2 around Cheltenham though. That's all I'm saying. To me he looks an Arkle horse through and through.

[Lobos]

Stubborn to put all your eggs in one basket (either basket) this early in the piece.

Have backed him TWAR with Hills so all angles covered but would have him odds on to turn up over 2 miles. It's just the right fit for a horse placed in 2 champion hurdles and the ground on the Tuesday wouldn't be an issue. It could dry up later.

[Lobos]

Part owner of Darver Star said immediately after his run in the Champion Hurdle regarding the following years Arkle......'I'd say that'll be where we are aiming for'.

Of course things can change but things like that will stick in one's mind.

[billymag]

Just touching on Captain Guinness I just cant have him at the moment till he shows us something more. Im not a fan of Andy Dufresne and the fact he didnt beat him marks him down considerably for me in the context of winning a festival race. I realise in that race he did things wrong and I accept that he was going well in the Supreme but it was a long way from home and Ill look to oppose him. In comparison the other Supreme faller Elixir d'ainay is much more interesting and the form behind Envoi allen marks him down as one Id certainly be interested in.

I know prior to the festival Ruby was talking up Captain Guinness and thats the sort of thing people sometimes latch on to, but I can see him being too short in his races for me and ill look to take him on.

[gjt7756]

So Paul Nicholls has put up Pic D’orhy as his horse to follow for the season, novice chaser this season after winning the Betfair hurdle last, have to admit I saw him in a schooling video yesterday and he looked great, I know it was only one fence but you could see the stride and technique was there, especially compared to the other three in the video, what do we feel will be his best trip?

[Istabraq]

So Paul Nicholls has put up Pic D’orhy as his horse to follow for the season, novice chaser this season after winning the Betfair hurdle last, have to admit I saw him in a schooling video yesterday and he looked great, I know it was only one fence but you could see the stride and technique was there, especially compared to the other three in the video, what do we feel will be his best trip?

Having started out over 2m in France you’d expect him to be needing a trip as he ages but he sprinted away at Newbury so could easily have the speed for an Arkle, I think that’ll be his initial trip but time will tell if he wants further (and a crack at Envoi Allen)