Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

Very interesting to read people’s comments on Elixir D’ainay & Shishkin’s RPR’s and that Elixir has almost a stone to find if the Arkle was run tomorrow. Whilst Shishkin would be very profitable for me next March, I’d like to temper my enthusiasm and quell anyone’s debates about the RPR’s.
Shishkin only earned his current RPR the moment he crossed the line in his Supreme win, with Elixir earning his ‘need to find a stone on the winner’ RPR at the moment he was unceremoniously brought down despite travelling like a dream. Again, I’ve watched the race quite a few times to make sure in my own mind how ‘special’ Shishkin could be, his specific run, and the jockey/trainer quotes afterwards.

I guess the point being, with the Supreme being both of those horses last runs, which concluded markedly different for both, it would be nigh on impossible to suggest currently Elixir has a stone to find on ratings. We need to see how the run up the hill would have concluded.

As mentioned, I do think Shishkin is a very, very good horse - Nicky Henderson said going into Cheltenham it was his one horse he was expecting great things from, backed up by de Boinville suggesting Shishkin has several gears. I don’t think either of those two really do hyperbole or get too excited, even post race after winning.

So in essence, the 33/1 on Elixir could currently be an exceptionally good price. It could, it’s just that we don’t really know for sure.

Envoy,

You're right, we don't know what Elixir Dainay or Captain Guinness could have done up the Cheltenham Hill, thanks to AF, so we have what they did pre-Festival to guide us, whilst knowing they looked good over the 1M5F, until they exited.

Neither horse can be marked up yet beyond their 151 and 150 RPRs based on falling 3F out.

Real Steel looked like he was going to win the Gold Cup 3F out, and got beat 12 lengths.

[Spectre]

Yes. I can only add agreement here. Shishkin is rightly favourite. I'm not sure even after Aintree or Punchestown another novice two miler that's likely to be aimed here, would have achieved a rating in the same parish anyway.

Klassical Dream is the clear obvious alternative to me. I have him backed for both this and the Marsh with cash out. Although I see this as the likelier race before being stepped up in trip the following season. Willie will surely want the falsely watered first day ground and won't wait for Thursday unless a wet week is forecast. Then it could be all change on the bingo train. I'm confident he'll go chasing though. He was bought as a chaser, and they always thought they'd see the best of him over fences.

I have Captain Guinness, Elixir D'ainay, and Felix D'esjy backed for my book, but I don't see them as the best alternatives given both Shishkin and Klassical Dream are already proven better horses. Of the three I'd probably side with Felix D'esjy though.

I actually prefer the wildcards of Andy Dufresne and Embittered at much bigger prices as players who feasibly make the frame if the Shiskin and Klassical Dream don't make it or something goes wrong. Both could (and might) go to the Marsh so I'll probably cover for that race at some point, but I at this stage I think both will be suited by a fast two miles around Cheltenham. Andy Dufresne looks to be bred perfectly for two mile chasing and you can't imagine Gordon wanting to set him against Envoi Allen anyway. And in the case of Embittered JOB's MO would be to send him over two miles in his novice season, as he usually does with his best novice chasers that have been running over the minimum over hurdles.

The JP link with Andy Dufresne brings me back to Attaglance's case for Elixir D'ainay which is well made, and similar reasoning why I got him in my book. I know JP doesn't mind pitching his own horses against each other, and they may both go to the Arkle, but I don't think they will, and I think Elixir D'ainay may be the one to go up in trip. Both have run over two and a half, and Elixir D'ainay has run over 2m6f. But the compelling thing for me is the alternative horses in each stable in Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen. It doesn't take a leap of faith that JP wouldn't need too much persuasion for his two to be split up. So if Willie prefers Klassical Dream for the Arkle, and Gordon wants to avoid Envoi Allen with Andy Dufresne, I see Elixir D'ainay in the Marsh and Andy Dufresne in the Arkle after the trainers have had their say, and it all comes out in the mix.

Having said all of that, and adding it to all the previous analysis and good work, sometimes it doesn't pay to look beyond the obvious. And the obvious in this case is still Shishkin.

[Spectre]

I can buy the case you make for Captain Guinness by the way SW. Of all of them he's the easiest to make a case for a significant improvement over fences. That said, he will need every yard and fence of experience this season too.

[Saxon Warrior]

I can buy the case you make for Captain Guinness by the way SW. Of all of them he's the easiest to make a case for a significant improvement over fences. That said, he will need every yard and fence of experience this season too.

Agreed Spectre, he doesn't want the Minella Indo muddle of 2 non-Graded Novice chases that HdB served up last winter.
It's not difficult to think that the prep he had left Minella Indo one Graded race short of a decent run in to the Festival.

(By the way Minella Indo has only had 7 runs under rules and 1 PTP, so he is an inexperienced horse heading towards a Gold Cup, with a lot of potential upside to his rating/performance ceiling).

I'm hoping Captain Guinness is given 4 chases pre-Festival, to make up for his current lack of racecourse experience.

[archie]

By and large, the Champion Hurdle would be the best hurdle form moving on to novice chases. Darver Star is rated 1lb higher than Shishkin on ORs and they are equal on best RPR. There has to be a doubt about whether he'd go for the Arkle or Marsh but top prices of 25/1 and 33/1 (or 20/1 and 25/1 for bet365 cashout) seem big when compared to the favourites.

I don't buy the line that he's too old because he clearly improved/matured out of all recognition last season.

[Saxon Warrior]

By and large, the Champion Hurdle would be the best hurdle form moving on to novice chases. Darver Star is rated 1lb higher than Shishkin on ORs and they are equal on best RPR. There has to be a doubt about whether he'd go for the Arkle or Marsh but top prices of 25/1 and 33/1 (or 20/1 and 25/1 for bet365 cashout) seem big when compared to the favourites.

I don't buy the line that he's too old because he clearly improved/matured out of all recognition last season.

I'd look at experience/number of races as a guide above age.
Some horses start early/peak early and some start later/peak later.

[Spectre]

I think they've said they're planning on a step up in trip over fences for Darver Star Archie. Clearly plans change, but when they make statements like that I couldn't back him for the Arkle. I do have him ew for the Marsh based on that they said though.

[Lobos]

I think they've said they're planning on a step up in trip over fences for Darver Star Archie. Clearly plans change, but when they make statements like that I couldn't back him for the Arkle. I do have him ew for the Marsh based on that they said though.

He has already been over 2 1/2 miles so not really a step up? Think he'll move between 2 miles and 2 1/2 through the season and end up in the Arkle. English Champion Hurdle 3rd and Irish Churdle 2nd in Arkle sounds perfect to me .

[Spectre]

From Gavin Cromwell's lips Lobos:

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Darver-Star-to-go-chasing-next-season&prid=208196

[archie]

I think they've said they're planning on a step up in trip over fences for Darver Star Archie. Clearly plans change, but when they make statements like that I couldn't back him for the Arkle. I do have him ew for the Marsh based on that they said though.

They weren't quite as definitive as that from what I remember. Just that they felt he could handle the step up in trip and would likely test that theory.

I'd have thought that they will be flexible and keep an eye on the opposition. However, the fact that he has already shown top form over the Old Course 2 miles might prove the deciding factor. Certainly, if cashout (or trade out) is available, I'd want to be covered for either option. I think that they'd rather take on Shishkin than Envoi Allen but if either fell by the wayside it would be a big push in the relevant direction.

[Spectre]

Staying flexible over it is a good point Archie. I've been guilty in the past of taking a position, sticking by it, and paying for it. I think with Darver Star, I've got him in by book for the Marsh based on Cromwell's comments, so I'll watch to see if his first entry is over two or two and half. If its over two I'll add him, and if its over two and a half and he flops I'll add him.

[ComplyOrDie]

By and large, the Champion Hurdle would be the best hurdle form moving on to novice chases. Darver Star is rated 1lb higher than Shishkin on ORs and they are equal on best RPR. There has to be a doubt about whether he'd go for the Arkle or Marsh but top prices of 25/1 and 33/1 (or 20/1 and 25/1 for bet365 cashout) seem big when compared to the favourites.

I don't buy the line that he's too old because he clearly improved/matured out of all recognition last season.

I buy it when it comes to the Arkle, less so for races over further. At some point age will slow down a horse, that's a given, as it does with all walks of life. 9 years of age for G1 novice chase, I couldn't entertain it.

I know the point will be made of the Champion Hurdle run, but seriously, look at that field. Sharjah had 1 win under his belt last season, and ultimately ran his best race at the festival, or just come across a weak renewal, the latter is what I believe. Cilaos Emery was reverted from fences, hardly an ideal prep, yet ended up 4th in a Champion Hurdle. Petit Mouchoir, for all that he comes across consistent he hasn't won in now 16 races (including plenty weaker than what a Champion Hurdle should be), yet managed 5th in the race. I think the general opinion on the forum was that it was a pretty weak renewal anyway. So I wouldn't be looking too much into form lines from the race, not for me personally, anyway.

No Espoir D'Allen
No Klassical Dream
No Buveur D'air

The Champion Hurdle was run in just over a second quicker than the Supreme, but I think you can mark up the Supreme a bit more than that given the carnage that occured thanks to Asterion Forlonges inability to jump straight.


I think Kev got it right (and you also noted archie) about Darver Star in the Marsh, it makes the most sense, and is the one race I'd look to back him in for sure. 33/1 is a right decent price for sure, given his proximity to Envoi Allen (who heads the Marsh market) in the Royal Bond.

[ComplyOrDie]

He has already been over 2 1/2 miles so not really a step up? Think he'll move between 2 miles and 2 1/2 through the season and end up in the Arkle. English Champion Hurdle 3rd and Irish Churdle 2nd in Arkle sounds perfect to me .

Both crap Champion Hurdles though

[Kautostar]

Yes. I can only add agreement here. Shishkin is rightly favourite. I'm not sure even after Aintree or Punchestown another novice two miler that's likely to be aimed here, would have achieved a rating in the same parish anyway.

Klassical Dream is the clear obvious alternative to me. I have him backed for both this and the Marsh with cash out. Although I see this as the likelier race before being stepped up in trip the following season. Willie will surely want the falsely watered first day ground and won't wait for Thursday unless a wet week is forecast. Then it could be all change on the bingo train. I'm confident he'll go chasing though. He was bought as a chaser, and they always thought they'd see the best of him over fences.

I have Captain Guinness, Elixir D'ainay, and Felix D'esjy backed for my book, but I don't see them as the best alternatives given both Shishkin and Klassical Dream are already proven better horses. Of the three I'd probably side with Felix D'esjy though.

I actually prefer the wildcards of Andy Dufresne and Embittered at much bigger prices as players who feasibly make the frame if the Shiskin and Klassical Dream don't make it or something goes wrong. Both could (and might) go to the Marsh so I'll probably cover for that race at some point, but I at this stage I think both will be suited by a fast two miles around Cheltenham. Andy Dufresne looks to be bred perfectly for two mile chasing and you can't imagine Gordon wanting to set him against Envoi Allen anyway. And in the case of Embittered JOB's MO would be to send him over two miles in his novice season, as he usually does with his best novice chasers that have been running over the minimum over hurdles.

The JP link with Andy Dufresne brings me back to Attaglance's case for Elixir D'ainay which is well made, and similar reasoning why I got him in my book. I know JP doesn't mind pitching his own horses against each other, and they may both go to the Arkle, but I don't think they will, and I think Elixir D'ainay may be the one to go up in trip. Both have run over two and a half, and Elixir D'ainay has run over 2m6f. But the compelling thing for me is the alternative horses in each stable in Klassical Dream and Envoi Allen. It doesn't take a leap of faith that JP wouldn't need too much persuasion for his two to be split up. So if Willie prefers Klassical Dream for the Arkle, and Gordon wants to avoid Envoi Allen with Andy Dufresne, I see Elixir D'ainay in the Marsh and Andy Dufresne in the Arkle after the trainers have had their say, and it all comes out in the mix.

Having said all of that, and adding it to all the previous analysis and good work, sometimes it doesn't pay to look beyond the obvious. And the obvious in this case is still Shishkin.

Re splitting Andy dufresne and elixir D’ainay.....jp also has chantry house and sporting John to consider so any 2 could go for the Arkle/marsh

[ComplyOrDie]

Re splitting Andy dufresne and elixir D’ainay.....jp also has chantry house and sporting John to consider so any 2 could go for the Arkle/marsh

Or RSA.

Don't think JP has many RSA contenders, so suspect one will be routed to that race.