Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

Elixir Dainay is a decent graded novice hurdler, and if he goes chasing this autumn it’s possible he could improve as a novice chaser on his hurdling figures of official rating 149, RPR 151.

The Arkle winners are usually rated RPR 165 or higher, so he has at least a stone to find, which is possible, and at 33/1 it’s a reasonable price.

He doesn’t attract me at this point, as he doesn’t stand out above the others with a similar hurdles rating, maybe I need to do a bit more video and form study to see which horse below Shishkin in the Arkle market can tempt me into a stronger opinion on them, for the race.

That's very fair, he definitely needs to improve on his hurdles form.

I'm on the side of expecting it rather than hoping but as with everything, it's price based.


Klassical Dream would be right up there for me if I knew he was going Novice Chasing

[Saxon Warrior]

That's very fair, he definitely needs to improve on his hurdles form.

I'm on the side of expecting it rather than hoping but as with everything, it's price based.


Klassical Dream would be right up there for me if I knew he was going Novice Chasing

Yes Kev, Klassical Dream is still only a 6yo, he won the Supreme as a 5yo, and he put up an official rating of 160 as a novice hurdler and an RPR of 160. It doesnt take much to get to 165 from there, and he is on a par with Shishkin on Novice Hurdle ratings.

The issue with ratings for last season, is no Aintree, no Fairyhouse, no Punchestown etc, so those big graded races that can sort out the order of Novice hurdlers and chasers didn’t take place, which does leave us more in the dark than usual.

Anything upbeat about Klassical Dream, and going novice chasing would put a new dynamic on the Arkle market. Even more than Sharjah switching.

[Lobos]

I'd say KD would be more of a Marsh type rather than an Arkle horse. He needed slower ground to show his best and was entered in the Stayers so he clearly needs more of a stamina test imo. Whether we will see him again remains to be seen.

[Arkle]

Personally avoiding KD think he’s a nut job and ruby somehow was able to control him don’t know if we will see him to best affect again imo

[Lobos]

Topped up on Elixr TWAR rather than going specifically Arkle. Think 16/1 is a fair price for him.

[Lobos]

Just watched the Supreme back about 5 times. Still can't believe the carnage. Both Elixr and C Guinness were totally wiped out. Shiskin was under pressure to make ground before that happened and then had to be reigned right back to swerve the fallen horses. He did brilliant to go on and win. The horse who definitely had the easiest passage was Abacadabras but he was still run out of it. Chantry House wants 2 1/2+, he won't be going Arkle. Shiskin does look special. Both Elixr and Captain Guinness looked to be loving the course.

[Attaglance]

Yes Kev, Klassical Dream is still only a 6yo, he won the Supreme as a 5yo, and he put up an official rating of 160 as a novice hurdler and an RPR of 160. It doesnt take much to get to 165 from there, and he is on a par with Shishkin on Novice Hurdle ratings.

The issue with ratings for last season, is no Aintree, no Fairyhouse, no Punchestown etc, so those big graded races that can sort out the order of Novice hurdlers and chasers didn’t take place, which does leave us more in the dark than usual.

Anything upbeat about Klassical Dream, and going novice chasing would put a new dynamic on the Arkle market. Even more than Sharjah switching.

SW I agree Elixir certainly has to improve by a stone or more, but as you have correctly highlighted above the spring festivals didn’t take place and we will never know what rating he would of finished on for the season, he very well could of finished on 158OR or more. We will never know what improvement all Novice Hurdlers would of had and what mark they would of achieved, this will be a very intriguing season ahead.

As you highlight we are more in the dark than pervious years and this year more than ever we are going to have to think outside the box more, especially in the Novice Hurdle division & Novice Chase division.

Klassical Dream certainly has the correct profile and would be interesting as you say if going Novice Chasing, but IMO is ground dependent and a challenge to ride. Ruby on board was able to harness the madness but Townsend has not a clue IMO on board Klassical Dream, he can’t get the best out of the horse.

Also given we haven’t seen Klassical Dream since he bombed at Leopardstown on 29/12/2019 and only best price 25/1 with WH and no cash out available, PP are next best on 20/1 with cash out.

Klassical Dream is of no interest to me at this stage given his price and the doubts IMO & especially when Elixir is available @ 33/1 with cash out.

Out of interest SW if Shiskin was not in the Arkle and you had to pick the winner, who would you go for?

I have enjoyed reading your views and analysis on Cheltenham over the months SW, keep up the brilliant work.

[Attaglance]

Just watched the Supreme back about 5 times. Still can't believe the carnage. Both Elixr and C Guinness were totally wiped out. Shiskin was under pressure to make ground before that happened and then had to be reigned right back to swerve the fallen horses. He did brilliant to go on and win. The horse who definitely had the easiest passage was Abacadabras but he was still run out of it. Chantry House wants 2 1/2+, he won't be going Arkle. Shiskin does look special. Both Elixr and Captain Guinness looked to be loving the course.

Lobos I agree with this and yes I do believe Shiskin could be the real deal, given he had to pull the brakes on and swerve to avoid the carnage around him, but he could of been the horse wiped out and Elixir or Captain Guinness could be the horse we are talking about as the Supreme winner now, though I do feel Abacadabras would of hung on against these 2 horses, which highlights the great run from Shiskin given the in-running problems and I am looking forward to the potential to come from him.

Need a few more roll ups with Shiskin I feel. As soon as an entry is made the price is shorting and when he wins, we are probably looking at EVS.

[Kevloaf]

Personally avoiding KD think he’s a nut job and ruby somehow was able to control him don’t know if we will see him to best affect again imo

That is probably fair... it's a price thing though.

Looking at the "facts" if Klassical Dream was declared as going over fences, he's a Supreme winner at 25/1 versus Shishkin at 4/1 and although Shishkin is more recent etc, that's a helluva difference?

For around 6x the price, you get a Willie Mullins horse who won further in his Supreme than Shishkin did? You do need to forgive two runs on the bounce, but beating Felix Desky 5.5L and Aramon on your 'unsuitable' ground still reads pretty well!

Also, it's impossible we'd ever get a Cheltenham Tuesday without "soft" in the going so the ground wouldn't even beon my mind as a worry for him.




I think he's a big player, if he was 25/1 with cashout I'd be tipping him up every other post.....

Definitely one for free bets or attempted roll ups if that's how people are playing, in my ever so humble opinion.

[Faugheen_Machine]

That is probably fair... it's a price thing though.

Looking at the "facts" if Klassical Dream was declared as going over fences, he's a Supreme winner at 25/1 versus Shishkin at 4/1 and although Shishkin is more recent etc, that's a helluva difference?

For around 6x the price, you get a Willie Mullins horse who won further in his Supreme than Shishkin did? You do need to forgive two runs on the bounce, but beating Felix Desky 5.5L and Aramon on your 'unsuitable' ground still reads pretty well!

Also, it's impossible we'd ever get a Cheltenham Tuesday without "soft" in the going so the ground wouldn't even beon my mind as a worry for him.




I think he's a big player, if he was 25/1 with cashout I'd be tipping him up every other post.....

Definitely one for free bets or attempted roll ups if that's how people are playing, in my ever so humble opinion.

He'll be one of the first horses I look at when the Mullins stable your comes out. Any mention of starting over fences and I think the 20/1+ will be gone.

[Saxon Warrior]

SW I agree Elixir certainly has to improve by a stone or more, but as you have correctly highlighted above the spring festivals didn’t take place and we will never know what rating he would of finished on for the season, he very well could of finished on 158OR or more. We will never know what improvement all Novice Hurdlers would of had and what mark they would of achieved, this will be a very intriguing season ahead.

As you highlight we are more in the dark than pervious years and this year more than ever we are going to have to think outside the box more, especially in the Novice Hurdle division & Novice Chase division.

Klassical Dream certainly has the correct profile and would be interesting as you say if going Novice Chasing, but IMO is ground dependent and a challenge to ride. Ruby on board was able to harness the madness but Townsend has not a clue IMO on board Klassical Dream, he can’t get the best out of the horse.

Also given we haven’t seen Klassical Dream since he bombed at Leopardstown on 29/12/2019 and only best price 25/1 with WH and no cash out available, PP are next best on 20/1 with cash out.

Klassical Dream is of no interest to me at this stage given his price and the doubts IMO & especially when Elixir is available @ 33/1 with cash out.

Out of interest SW if Shiskin was not in the Arkle and you had to pick the winner, who would you go for?

I have enjoyed reading your views and analysis on Cheltenham over the months SW, keep up the brilliant work.

Attaglance,

I am very keen on Captain Guinness for the Arkle at this early stage.

I wrote up why I had taken a big-price on him for the Supreme, after his debut, and he sure looked to be in with a shout in the race until Asterion Forlonge went wild.

AF should have been thrown out IMO, what do you need to do in a hurdle race to be disqualified?

He is still the least exposed horse in the betting market.

It was something I wrote about before the Festival that no horse had won a Supreme or Ballymore with less racecourse/P2P experience than Captain Guinness (only 2 recorded races in his life) which would have been an amazing feat, for him to win.

No flat racing
No point-to-point racing
No bumper racing
Just three hurdles races:-
one debut win,
one photo-finish 2nd in a Grade 2,
one knocked off his feet when travelling well at the 2nd last in a Festival Grade 1.

At the moment there is no ceiling on his potential, until he reveals more in his first race or two.

He is trained by HdB, the master of the art of chasing (2M chasing in particular).

Thats where I'm starting at the moment in the Arkle market.

The only other one I have in mind is Felix Desjy at a big price.
It was a great prep for Galway to see him fit & well, and posting a rating in the 90's when bolting up on his flat race debut.

Davy Russell's injury denied FD having the great jockey on board at Galway, and Keith Donoghue has immediately fessed up to the rubbish job he did on Felix in the Galway Hurdle, missing the break, rushing him up to try and get closer to the leaders then burying him in the dirt at an early hurdle.

I'm hoping the horse is okay, Keith never rides him again, and he starts off a 2M Novice Chase campaign in the autumn, leading from the front.
That could be a sight to behold.

[Attaglance]

Attaglance,

I am very keen on Captain Guinness for the Arkle at this early stage.

I wrote up why I had taken a big-price on him for the Supreme, after his debut, and he sure looked to be in with a shout in the race until Asterion Forlonge went wild.

AF should have been thrown out IMO, what do you need to do in a hurdle race to be disqualified?

He is still the least exposed horse in the betting market.

It was something I wrote about before the Festival that no horse had won a Supreme or Ballymore with less racecourse/P2P experience than Captain Guinness (only 2 recorded races in his life) which would have been an amazing feat, for him to win.

No flat racing
No point-to-point racing
No bumper racing
Just three hurdles races:-
one debut win,
one photo-finish 2nd in a Grade 2,
one knocked off his feet when travelling well at the 2nd last in a Festival Grade 1.

At the moment there is no ceiling on his potential, until he reveals more in his first race or two.

He is trained by HdB, the master of the art of chasing (2M chasing in particular).

Thats where I'm starting at the moment in the Arkle market.

The only other one I have in mind is Felix Desjy at a big price.
It was a great prep for Galway to see him fit & well, and posting a rating in the 90's when bolting up on his flat race debut.

Davy Russell's injury denied FD having the great jockey on board at Galway, and Keith Donoghue has immediately fessed up to the rubbish job he did on Felix in the Galway Hurdle, missing the break, rushing him up to try and get closer to the leaders then burying him in the dirt at an early hurdle.

I'm hoping the horse is okay, Keith never rides him again, and he starts off a 2M Novice Chase campaign in the autumn, leading from the front.
That could be a sight to behold.

Saxon Warrior,

Very interesting to hear you like Felix Desjy. After working through the market late last night I added him in a treble with Easywork (RSA) & Envoi Allen (Marsh).

With you on Captain Guinness, he looks a very exciting chasing prospect and HdB is a legend in my eyes, great man and a trainer I follow closely at the festival.

[EnvoyAllen]

Very interesting to read people’s comments on Elixir D’ainay & Shishkin’s RPR’s and that Elixir has almost a stone to find if the Arkle was run tomorrow. Whilst Shishkin would be very profitable for me next March, I’d like to temper my enthusiasm and quell anyone’s debates about the RPR’s.
Shishkin only earned his current RPR the moment he crossed the line in his Supreme win, with Elixir earning his ‘need to find a stone on the winner’ RPR at the moment he was unceremoniously brought down despite travelling like a dream. Again, I’ve watched the race quite a few times to make sure in my own mind how ‘special’ Shishkin could be, his specific run, and the jockey/trainer quotes afterwards.

I guess the point being, with the Supreme being both of those horses last runs, which concluded markedly different for both, it would be nigh on impossible to suggest currently Elixir has a stone to find on ratings. We need to see how the run up the hill would have concluded.

As mentioned, I do think Shishkin is a very, very good horse - Nicky Henderson said going into Cheltenham it was his one horse he was expecting great things from, backed up by de Boinville suggesting Shishkin has several gears. I don’t think either of those two really do hyperbole or get too excited, even post race after winning.

So in essence, the 33/1 on Elixir could currently be an exceptionally good price. It could, it’s just that we don’t really know for sure.

[billymag]

Ive mentioned this before but worth saying again Klassical Dream had problems with ulcers last year so it might help forgive him his poor runs, Ive not idea if theyve got these sorted though yet.

[Attaglance]

Yep that was my point on the ratings as well, but I didn’t make the point very clear, you have explained a lot better.

Hence why I said in my post this year is going to be very different from other years in the Novice Hurdle division and Novice Chasing division so we have to think outside the “box”.

At the prices I think Elixir D’Ainary is an exceptional price at 33/1 with cash out as I keep banging on about. I have took a very strong view on this horse and if he did go on to win he would be my biggest ever single winner in horse racing, as highlighted before I am mainly doubles / trebles at Cheltenham.