Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[BigChaang]

A lot of if's and Maybe's at the moment Lobos , I've got a few of those.
backed already , whether it's in the right race , only time will tell .

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone have any thoughts on Bright Forecast for the RSA?

Took some 54.0 on the exchange average odds a while back. Think there’s still bits and pieces in the high 40s on their and 33s with the bookies.

Very very well thought of last season for chasing but got injured. Was doing some unbelievable pieces of work over fences early season in the yard according to various people but we never had the opportunity to see it. Year before that stayed on in the Ballymore behind City Island and Champ which hasn’t worked out too badly since.

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone have any thoughts on Bright Forecast for the RSA?

Took some 54.0 on the exchange average odds a while back. Think there’s still bits and pieces in the high 40s on their and 33s with the bookies.

Very very well thought of last season for chasing but got injured. Was doing some unbelievable pieces of work over fences early season in the yard according to various people but we never had the opportunity to see it. Year before that stayed on in the Ballymore behind City Island and Champ which hasn’t worked out too badly since.

Backed him early on for the RSA, and think a couple of other members may have done also.

My main worry with him, despite the yard giving it the talk about his work at home is the one time he went over fences (in his PTP) he produced a very poor performance. That said, it was his first ever run, so I have to forgive this, until seen over fences again, which is why I backed him. I have also backed him for the Stayers' @ 70's on the exchanges for pennies, should he not take to fences, as per the above small concern.

[Ray]

Yeah well worth a go on the ballymore run, ive backed him EW @ 40/1

[Middle_Of_March]

Backed him early on for the RSA, and think a couple of other members may have done also.

My main worry with him, despite the yard giving it the talk about his work at home is the one time he went over fences (in his PTP) he produced a very poor performance. That said, it was his first ever run, so I have to forgive this, until seen over fences again, which is why I backed him. I have also backed him for the Stayers' @ 70's on the exchanges for pennies, should he not take to fences, as per the above small concern.

Hadn’t seen that about his P2P tbh COD. I’d like to think it was the new experience rather than fences that caused the poor run but it’s definitely something to look out for. Cheers.

I may hover over his price on the exchange for the Stayers when he makes his chasing debut with your theory in mind. Do think he has the makings of a very decent 3m chaser though so I’m quietly hopeful with him. Certainly a big price for his profile anyway.

[RufusFlynn]

Afternoon all - long time lurker - first time poster.

Wasn't sure exactly where to post this but given how many people fancy the likes of Shiskin, Monkfish, Envoi Allen thought this might be the best place.

I have recently been looking back over the past 5 or so years of the fest results and in particular the frequency in which winners follow up the next year. Festival form is obviously a bonus and generally most peoples starting point but it is surprising how few of the winners of the novice type races actually follow up the next year.

I believe only the following:
Douvan (Supreme 2015 - Arkle 2016)
Altior - (Supreme 2016 - Arkle 2017 -QMCC 2018)
Yorkhill (Neptune 2017 - JLT 2018)
Tiger Roll (NatHunt 2017 - XC 2018)
Penhill (A.Bartlett 2017 - Stayers 2018)

have gone on to win the next year after triumphing in a novice hurdle/chase.

Some others e.g Samcro have skipped a year then returned and won. Others have gone close e.g Might Bite (RSA - GC) & Minella Indo (A.Bartlett - RSA).

Many routes seem to follow patterns - RSA on to Gold Cup/Arkle on to QMCC but how many have actually done the double as such?
The last horse to win the RSA then the GC was Lord Windermere.

Just worth considering that maybe should be looking at either placed horses progressing the following year or those from further down the fields as it seems a horse needs to really be top level to follow up. Therefore seems unlikely that Shiskin, Envoi, Monkfish, PTKO, Champ will all follow up in 2021 although obviously there is a good chance a couple (Shishkin/Envoi) may fit the profile given how highly connections rate them.

[Lobos]

Re the Arkle I think the stats are 16 out of the last 19 Arkle winners have gone on to finish in the top 3 in the following years Champion Chase, 8 of them won. That is an incredible bunch of stats and makes PTKO, with her 7lb Allowance, an incredibly good Ew bet at 20/1. She clearly should not be that price.

[Kevloaf]

Afternoon all - long time lurker - first time poster.

Wasn't sure exactly where to post this but given how many people fancy the likes of Shiskin, Monkfish, Envoi Allen thought this might be the best place.

I have recently been looking back over the past 5 or so years of the fest results and in particular the frequency in which winners follow up the next year. Festival form is obviously a bonus and generally most peoples starting point but it is surprising how few of the winners of the novice type races actually follow up the next year.

I believe only the following:
Douvan (Supreme 2015 - Arkle 2016)
Altior - (Supreme 2016 - Arkle 2017 -QMCC 2018)
Yorkhill (Neptune 2017 - JLT 2018)
Tiger Roll (NatHunt 2017 - XC 2018)
Penhill (A.Bartlett 2017 - Stayers 2018)

have gone on to win the next year after triumphing in a novice hurdle/chase.

Some others e.g Samcro have skipped a year then returned and won. Others have gone close e.g Might Bite (RSA - GC) & Minella Indo (A.Bartlett - RSA).

Many routes seem to follow patterns - RSA on to Gold Cup/Arkle on to QMCC but how many have actually done the double as such?
The last horse to win the RSA then the GC was Lord Windermere.

Just worth considering that maybe should be looking at either placed horses progressing the following year or those from further down the fields as it seems a horse needs to really be top level to follow up. Therefore seems unlikely that Shiskin, Envoi, Monkfish, PTKO, Champ will all follow up in 2021 although obviously there is a good chance a couple (Shishkin/Envoi) may fit the profile given how highly connections rate them.

Welcome to the forum, thanks for signing up.


Personally I know they won't all follow up, however I'm also aware that there may be value because some of them will - and it's all about finding the value.

As a punter that doesn't mind backing more than one, it makes previous winners almost impossible to ignore if the price is right.

If I was only picking one horse for all 28 races, it'd be different...but considering the majority of peoples approaches it's pretty hard to discount a previous winner...

To be fair, even at SP you'd probably still be in profit wouldn't you from your sample size? How many losers would there have been? I actually think it looks a pretty good return?

I know for a fact that if you backed every winner blindly at SP you'd be "up", and considering ante post you are likely to beat SP significantly, it's not something I'd be looking to avoid....

[Spectre]

Afternoon all - long time lurker - first time poster.

Wasn't sure exactly where to post this but given how many people fancy the likes of Shiskin, Monkfish, Envoi Allen thought this might be the best place.

I have recently been looking back over the past 5 or so years of the fest results and in particular the frequency in which winners follow up the next year. Festival form is obviously a bonus and generally most peoples starting point but it is surprising how few of the winners of the novice type races actually follow up the next year.

I believe only the following:
Douvan (Supreme 2015 - Arkle 2016)
Altior - (Supreme 2016 - Arkle 2017 -QMCC 2018)
Yorkhill (Neptune 2017 - JLT 2018)
Tiger Roll (NatHunt 2017 - XC 2018)
Penhill (A.Bartlett 2017 - Stayers 2018)

have gone on to win the next year after triumphing in a novice hurdle/chase.

Some others e.g Samcro have skipped a year then returned and won. Others have gone close e.g Might Bite (RSA - GC) & Minella Indo (A.Bartlett - RSA).

Many routes seem to follow patterns - RSA on to Gold Cup/Arkle on to QMCC but how many have actually done the double as such?
The last horse to win the RSA then the GC was Lord Windermere.

Just worth considering that maybe should be looking at either placed horses progressing the following year or those from further down the fields as it seems a horse needs to really be top level to follow up. Therefore seems unlikely that Shiskin, Envoi, Monkfish, PTKO, Champ will all follow up in 2021 although obviously there is a good chance a couple (Shishkin/Envoi) may fit the profile given how highly connections rate them.

Welcome Rufus. And thanks for such a well thought out first contribution.

[SeanRock]

Jp holds the aces here for me, Elixir D’Ainey & Chantry House still my two strongest fancies going forward in this sphere!

[Hardy Eustace]

Jp holds the aces here for me, Elixir D’Ainey & Chantry House still my two strongest fancies going forward in this sphere!

both exciting prospects - don't forget sporting john either, he has to be better than the ballymore running.

[Attaglance]

First time post on the Cheltenham thread, so go easy...

What are the thoughts on Elixir D,Ainay’s target race? Having read through the thread there is not much mention of this horse bar the last couple of posts. Having studied the Arkle race last night for a few hours and rewatched the Supreme race last year I think Elixir D’Ainay is the forgotten horse a bit here and great E/W value with cash out available @ 33/1.

Reasons:

Willie / Nicky have won 7 of the last 10 renewals. We all know Shishkin is the front runner here for Nicky.

Was running well when taken out in the Supreme by AF.

We have established that running over further distance is no bad thing when contesting the Arkle, think Lobos pointed this out in an earlier post. (take on board this is not the case when a Superstar is in the field, I.e Altior, Douvan, SS and yes we may have Shishkin this year)

Has graded form behind Envoi Allen, 3 lengths back in Lawlor’s Novice Hurdle.

Best price 33/1 with cash out available, price will only shorten as the season gets going.

Can lock in a profit and cash out if the Marsh / RSA looks the more likely route.

To me the Arkle looks light compared to the potential packed into the RSA for example and I feel Elixir has brilliant place claims at worse in this, IF turning up here. ( A Spectre E/W trixie coming on I feel with Put the Kettle On (CC) & Thyme Hill (S))

If Shishkin bombs during the season Arkle is wide open in my view.

Granted I agree Shishkin is the potential superstar here, but feel Elixir D’Ainary is the forgotten horse in the market in my view.

I like the Embittered angle someone mentioned on here, JOB has a decent record in past few years in this race and always has one or two runners in this. 50/1 with cash out on bet365 had to get some of that.

The 4 horses in my book / shortlist for the Arkle are Shishkin, Captain Guinness, Elixir D’Ainary & Embittered.

I have Shishkin covered in roll ups with 4pts at 50/1 and Captain Guinness at 20/1 in doubles / trebles E/W (3pts outlay) (Spectre style as this has been my approach for the past 10 festivals and has been the most profitable angle for me, all be it this is my first time playing antepost properly this year so will be interesting to see how I fair) Have 0.5pts ew on Embittered and that is my Arkle book to date which I am happy with. (8pts total outlay)

Hoping to add Elixir D’Ainary in a few doubles / trebles E/W but would like the views / thoughts from the forum on the Arkle as the most likely target before I commit. Not a fan of the TWAR market (16/1 to short in my view) prefer cash out option with doubles / trebles. (sorry Lobos)

Longtime lurker and the knowledge / expertise on here is from another planet, well done to all who contribute faithfully with all the different angles, it has been a joy to read and hopefully I can add the odd nugget of insight along the way.

Happy to be shot down in any of the above comments.(Go easy tho! )

[Faugheen_Machine]

"A better race with a stronger gallop would suit better. He will have no trouble stepping up in trip when the time comes and might get a Kerry National entry." @gelliott_racing on 2/9 favourite Galvin @KillarneyRaces

[nortonscoin200]

"A better race with a stronger gallop would suit better. He will have no trouble stepping up in trip when the time comes and might get a Kerry National entry." @gelliott_racing on 2/9 favourite Galvin @KillarneyRaces

Reckon the NH Chase could be perfect for Galvin, not sure he's that well handicapped or has the pace for the Ultima.

Quite a few previous NH Chase winners made an early start to the season - Tiger Roll made his seasonal debut on May 31.

With Codd on board he'd surely have a cracking chance of making it 5 out of the last 11 in the race for Gordon.

Still 25-1 with Unibet and 20-1 with Hills and Bet365.

Really like his chance.

[Dessie the great]

Reckon the NH Chase could be perfect for Galvin, not sure he's that well handicapped or has the pace for the Ultima.

Quite a few previous NH Chase winners made an early start to the season - Tiger Roll made his seasonal debut on May 31.

With Codd on board he'd surely have a cracking chance of making it 5 out of the last 11 in the race for Gordon.

Still 25-1 with Unibet and 20-1 with Hills and Bet365.

Really like his chance.

Fair shout