Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

I couldn’t back Diol Ker as he’s with the wrong trainer and it’s a hot looking RSA this season.

He hasn't been missed at all for that Monkfish piece of form.

I'm in the same camp as you here, at the current 20/1 price.

[Lobos]

He hasn't been missed at all for that Monkfish piece of form.

I'm in the same camp as you here, at the current 20/1 price.

Yet Monkfish is half his price in RSA. I know he went onto Grade 1 glory at the Fez but who's to say DK wouldn't have done the same given how highly his trainer rates him. Looking at his races I reckon DK will improve again for a step up in trip as well. Given the way he beat Monkfish I think 20/1 is very fair. What do we know about his lay off ? Was he injured?

[Lobos]

I'd be wary taking the Diol Ker/Monkfish form too literally as I think Monkfish progressed heaps throughout the season and wasn't it over 2m4? Interesting horse though going forward.
I reckon fences would suit Cedarwood Road and a step up in trip. Marsh as an early guess, though it's early days.
Both are interesting Lobos and probably under the radar

Is Cedarwood quoted anywhere for the Marsh ? Not so sure I'd want to take on Envoi but someone has to !

[taylorch1990]

Is Cedarwood quoted anywhere for the Marsh ? Not so sure I'd want to take on Envoi but someone has to !

Can't see him priced up for the Marsh but he's best price 40s for the Arkle with betfair/PP

[Kevloaf]

Yet Monkfish is half his price in RSA. I know he went onto Grade 1 glory at the Fez but who's to say DK wouldn't have done the same given how highly his trainer rates him. Looking at his races I reckon DK will improve again for a step up in trip as well. Given the way he beat Monkfish I think 20/1 is very fair. What do we know about his lay off ? Was he injured?

For fear of going over old ground I'll only reply this once.


The fact is that Monkfish did go on to group 1 glory at the festival. What you have to weigh up is you can take that at 10/1, or you can take a horse that beat him first time out at double the odds, 20/1 - that has not been seen since.


I am in no way saying he cannot win the RSA, or wouldn't have won the Albert Bartlett, or anything of the sort.

What I am saying, is i'd prefer the 10/1 about the horse that has been there and done it at Cheltenham, than the 20/1 about a horse who missed a lot of intended targets, and is not with a trainer I think is top class anymore, who factually, has not done it at the festival.

Again, I stress, it doesn't mean I don't like Diol Ker, or that he can't win (in fact, after Istabraq highlighted him last year at tasty odds I did get him onboard).

I just feel that one piece of collateral forms isn't enough at this stage, as it's perfectly feasible that Monkfish improved a helluva lot from that first clash and would beat him off levels.


If Diol Ker was 50/1, I'd perhaps chance it. 40/1 probably look at getting him in the book IF I had a positive update on him... 20/1 is just too short for me given only 1 positive. Right now.

[Lobos]

For fear of going over old ground I'll only reply this once.


The fact is that Monkfish did go on to group 1 glory at the festival. What you have to weigh up is you can take that at 10/1, or you can take a horse that beat him first time out at double the odds, 20/1 - that has not been seen since.


I am in no way saying he cannot win the RSA, or wouldn't have won the Albert Bartlett, or anything of the sort.

What I am saying, is i'd prefer the 10/1 about the horse that has been there and done it at Cheltenham, than the 20/1 about a horse who missed a lot of intended targets, and is not with a trainer I think is top class anymore, who factually, has not done it at the festival.

Again, I stress, it doesn't mean I don't like Diol Ker, or that he can't win (in fact, after Istabraq highlighted him last year at tasty odds I did get him onboard).

I just feel that one piece of collateral forms isn't enough at this stage, as it's perfectly feasible that Monkfish improved a helluva lot from that first clash and would beat him off levels.


If Diol Ker was 50/1, I'd perhaps chance it. 40/1 probably look at getting him in the book IF I had a positive update on him... 20/1 is just too short for me given only 1 positive. Right now.

Agree. I'd need a positive to back him which is why I put it on here. If I had a positive and confirmation he is going chasing then I wouldn't hesitate to stick him in my portfolio at 20/1. I still think Monkfish might stay hurdling yet so that would make DK even more attractive.

[JackieMoon33]

Diol Ker was having his third start of the season versus Monkfish making his debut. Whilst I think Diol Ker could be a decent chaser, he’ll likely only do that early season before the Big guns are unleashed.

I’ll eat a place pot slip if that form is held up over any discipline!

[Lobos]

Diol Ker was having his third start of the season versus Monkfish making his debut. Whilst I think Diol Ker could be a decent chaser, he’ll likely only do that early season before the Big guns are unleashed.

I’ll eat a place pot slip if that form is held up over any discipline!

I'm saving that quote. Those slips are bloody hard to swallow!

[JackieMoon33]

I'm saving that quote. Those slips are bloody hard to swallow!

It will be a rarity that I visit a betting shop

I should have said of that form is held up at Cheltenham but I’ll stand by it

[Eggs]

....amazed how the Diol Ker price has capsized for RSA.

He went into my notebook ahead of the festival simply because his trainer said it’d be one for next season. I had a small interest in it for the RSA in April @ 44-1, crazy how it’s price has collapsed.

[Lobos]

It will be a rarity that I visit a betting shop

I should have said of that form is held up at Cheltenham but I’ll stand by it

If Diol Kerr doesn't hold up that form, with the same place pot slip I'll give kev paper cuts on his bell end for calling me a stubborn old goat.

[ComplyOrDie]

If we're talking about early career form, as has been the case with Monkfish and Diol Ker, it might be worth dropping in that Diol Ker lost to Sams Profile (50/1 for the RSA) in a PTP, then was going to get beat by The Big Getaway (25/1 for the RSA) the following race before falling.

Does it mean he can't improve beyond them, absolutely not, but it's something I've taken into account for sure.

[Lobos]

If we're talking about early career form, as has been the case with Monkfish and Diol Ker, it might be worth dropping in that Diol Ker lost to Sams Profile (50/1 for the RSA) in a PTP, then was going to get beat by The Big Getaway (25/1 for the RSA) the following race before falling.

Does it mean he can't improve beyond them, absolutely not, but it's something I've taken into account for sure.

I'll settle for The BIg Getaway holding up that form. He's the RSA winner for me.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll settle for The BIg Getaway holding up that form. He's the RSA winner for me.

Been all over him for a while also! My idea of the winner too, currently. Unit of a horse.

[Istabraq]

Take Envoi Allen out of the equation and I think it’s entirely feasible that the top 10 in the betting for RSA and NH Chase could end up in either race.
For me they’re small stakes races until I know much more about targets...