Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[archie]

On Oddschecker, 3 companies in to 3/1, 8 companies left at 4/1 as have Ladbrokes and Coral. Someone's probably had a tenner each way with PP.

[EnvoyAllen]

Correct Archie. But each of those companies that have now shortened to 3’s from 4 and 10/3 from 4 have literally shortened ‘overnight’. Skybet were the only company previously as short as 7/2. Prices shortening from 3’s from 4’s would need some ‘consumer investment’ one would suggest.......

[archie]

You would suggest. I wouldn't.

Non-event. Move on.

[Kevloaf]

Correct Archie. But each of those companies that have now shortened to 3’s from 4 and 10/3 from 4 have literally shortened ‘overnight’. Skybet were the only company previously as short as 7/2. Prices shortening from 3’s from 4’s would need some ‘consumer investment’ one would suggest.......

I think this is called confirmation bias.






Whilst I agree with you in the end result, that I think he'll be in the Marsh, I think PP/BFSB "clipping him" from 3/1 from 4/1 is no where near confirmation of that being the case.

They could have decided they no longer want to be the top price for the horse for a number of reasons. I hope it is because they know the target.




I'm agreeing with the result but not the process

Way too much being made of it. An industry-wide clipping would lend itself to some information being released about target, and we're not going to get that I wouldn't have thought!

[EnvoyAllen]

Just out of interest gents (Mr Archie, Mr KevLoaf) (and not using this specific example to illustrate) - why, if for instance not a single penny has come for a particular horse over 3 days would 3 different companies shorten a horse, or a football match, or indeed any specific event??

Would these companies just come into work one morning and look at their market leaders (again, in any specific event) and just agree between themselves “Nah, our price don’t look right. We’re too generous. We’ll shorten instead.....”

Are those the kinds of decisions that are genuinely made, even if not a single penny has come for that event?

I’m intrigued as to your opinions as to why an event ‘happening’ would be a ‘non event’ if it’s shortened 25% inside a very short time, if indeed not a penny has come for it??

If an on course bookmaker had a favourite at say 6/4 30 mins before a race and not a single punter bet a single penny on that horse, nor any other in that race’s market, would that on course bookmaker just then knock his horse down to even’s money at a click of his fingers?

Do prices shorten because money comes for the event or do prices shorten for that event because the bookmaker just ‘feels like it’. ??

[EnvoyAllen]

I’m unsure how ‘confirmation bias’ could be linked to a 25% shortening of odds on any particular event? Surely an objective view based on facts here, rather than subjective?

[Kevloaf]

You'd really need to understand the difference and liquidity in a market 30 mins before a race compared to July 2020 for March 2021.




You seem to be thinking along the lines of "the money is coming, someone must know something"..... which is absoltuely miles off the case in an ante post market.

The people "in the know" wouldn't be putting significant money on a horse at 4/1 in July....




Nobody is saying "literally not a penny", they could have set out a specific amount they wanted to take on him at 4/1.....the odds are still hugely in their favour, he's not even declared as going chasing yet!






.....if you can't see how you're being influenced by confirmation bias I don't know how I can explain it any better sorry.

Again, your end point is the same as mine, I think he'll run in the Marsh, however yours seems to be confirmed by 3 firms (2 are the same company) going 3/1 from 4/1..... which I would say is not relevant at this stage.

[archie]

Do prices shorten because money comes for the event or do prices shorten for that event because the bookmaker just ‘feels like it’. ??

Yes and yes - in different circumstances.

In this instance, the horse is either still in his field or very recently back in. There is no way in this world that this is 'in the know' money. While we're at it, as PP and Betfair are essentially the same company we're only talking about 2 players shortening. PP/Betfair have probably taken enough in their view and BetVictor are 'gone at the game'.

[Quevega]

Just out of interest gents (Mr Archie, Mr KevLoaf) (and not using this specific example to illustrate) - why, if for instance not a single penny has come for a particular horse over 3 days would 3 different companies shorten a horse, or a football match, or indeed any specific event??

Would these companies just come into work one morning and look at their market leaders (again, in any specific event) and just agree between themselves “Nah, our price don’t look right. We’re too generous. We’ll shorten instead.....”

Are those the kinds of decisions that are genuinely made, even if not a single penny has come for that event?

I’m intrigued as to your opinions as to why an event ‘happening’ would be a ‘non event’ if it’s shortened 25% inside a very short time, if indeed not a penny has come for it??

If an on course bookmaker had a favourite at say 6/4 30 mins before a race and not a single punter bet a single penny on that horse, nor any other in that race’s market, would that on course bookmaker just then knock his horse down to even’s money at a click of his fingers?

Do prices shorten because money comes for the event or do prices shorten for that event because the bookmaker just ‘feels like it’. ??

Why do fruit machines have nice bright flashing lights and catchy tunes playing from them ?

Oddschecker is definitely utilised accordingly.
By Bookmakers from time to time.

[germanshepherd]

Just out of interest gents (Mr Archie, Mr KevLoaf) (and not using this specific example to illustrate) - why, if for instance not a single penny has come for a particular horse over 3 days would 3 different companies shorten a horse, or a football match, or indeed any specific event??

Would these companies just come into work one morning and look at their market leaders (again, in any specific event) and just agree between themselves “Nah, our price don’t look right. We’re too generous. We’ll shorten instead.....”

Are those the kinds of decisions that are genuinely made, even if not a single penny has come for that event?

I’m intrigued as to your opinions as to why an event ‘happening’ would be a ‘non event’ if it’s shortened 25% inside a very short time, if indeed not a penny has come for it??

If an on course bookmaker had a favourite at say 6/4 30 mins before a race and not a single punter bet a single penny on that horse, nor any other in that race’s market, would that on course bookmaker just then knock his horse down to even’s money at a click of his fingers?

Do prices shorten because money comes for the event or do prices shorten for that event because the bookmaker just ‘feels like it’. ??

Nope. They will cut the price without taking a penny they just follow the rest.

[ComplyOrDie]

Envoi Allen (for the Marsh Novices Chase) now clipped in last few days to 3/1 from 4’s with three companies and into 10/3 with several others?

Interesting development without wishing to assume anything? Those companies have cut straight to 3’s without even touching the 7/2 marker.

No smoke without fire......?

Despite what some have said, I believe this to be a sign of some sorts. I always note PP/Betfair markets for Elliott/Nicholls/Mullins (when Ruby was riding) horses. Even this early on.

I suspect there will have been conversations had, which have caused the decrease in his price. Who between? I couldn't say, but would not be surprised one bit if it was representatives of connections of Envoi. It's also worth keeping an eye on his RSA price, where he is stand out 7/1 with PP/Betfair, oh and surprise surprise, likely newcomers (merger pending) to the clique, SkyBet.

[Istabraq]

Bookmakers adjust prices all the time (for whatever reason), I wouldn’t be surprised if these adjustments were a marketing ploy during what is obviously a very quiet period for the Cheltenham ante post markets.
Turn a horse blue and it gets attention, creates discussion and will lead to people making assumptions and potentially having a bet they may not have had without the ‘blue’...

[Big Bucks]

Bookmakers adjust prices all the time (for whatever reason), I wouldn’t be surprised if these adjustments were a marketing ploy during what is obviously a very quiet period for the Cheltenham ante post markets.
Turn a horse blue and it gets attention, creates discussion and will lead to people making assumptions and potentially having a bet they may not have had without the ‘blue’...

Yep I agree Ista, and wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. Most of the time all it takes is a shrewd tipster to put one up to make a horse blue, but i think bookies purposely slash a horse for the reasons you have stated, to reel us in like a big fish!

That being said still in the Marsh camp!

[Istabraq]

Yep I agree Ista, and wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. Most of the time all it takes is a shrewd tipster to put one up to make a horse blue, but i think bookies purposely slash a horse for the reasons you have stated, to reel us in like a big fish!

That being said still in the Marsh camp!

And I wouldn’t put it past bookmaker and reputable tipster collaboration to drum up business...

[The King Pimm]

You’ve also got to factor in that Envoi has been a banker in the Marsh along with Shiskin in the Arkle for most of us in various multiples which given the quiet period for Festival betting has probably alerted the bookies IT software, it is probably an automatic reaction to EV being involved in so many bets.