Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes with that Champ question, I did open it up to a lot of differing responses. Its all related to Hendo's wonderful record at delivering all 4 of his Grade 1 Novice Chase winners back the following year, and almost winning again with all 4 of them.

Its coincidence that he has a 5th one now for us to watch to see if he can do it again.

As a Champ backer, I bloody hope so

[Spectre]

Firstly I want to say thanks to Saxon Warrior for this great bit of work, and all of the others like it. It's very much appreciated that you share it with all of us.

Some conclusions are worth drawing though. And specifically that backing them blind would make the target price 11/2 to make a profit.

Currently these are the prices for last seasons horses:

Arkle - Put The Kettle On 20/1
Marsh - Samcro 12/1
RSA - Champ 12/1

It may or may not work out this year, but backing those three blind and their equivalents at antepost prices each year is clearly profitable. The average odds of those three are 14.7/1, so against a target price of 11/2 stats say backing them all to max stakes is a no-brainer. In addition, and without additional stats to hand, backing each way feels like it may be more of a 2/1 shot and possibly better to be profitable.

I would also add to this, the concern that some have about backing horses antepost because of the impact of injuries and non-runners is blown apart using these three races. It may change using other races, but overall I suspect the Grade 1's hold up all round. It may be worth producing stats to establish if there are particular races should be avoided for antepost purposes. That said I think logic dictates overall anyway. I.e. the novice hurdles will be incredibly difficult as will the Bumper and the Triumph given the amount of unknown horses and pinning down targets. The Open Grade 1's will be the easiest overall. The novice chases will sit in the middle.

Following on from that point, doing the same exercise SW has done for the 3 Grade 1 novice hurdles into the following season would be interesting. Particularly given Shishkin, Envoi Allen, and Monkfish are much shorter in their respective markets. I suspect it will paint an entirely different picture given the respective antepost prices for those races. I don't have the time at the moment, but it would be interesting to establish an equivalent target price for those three races to be profitable in the long run.

[Joleg]

I thought about how well the Novice Chasers and Novice Hurdlers that won Grade 1 races at the Festival may have fared the next season, and my assumption was that Novice Hurdlers would fare better because many of them would stay against Novices in Novice chases - whereas Novice Chase winners would generally then compete in Open Grade 1 chases.

SW you're putting in some top work on here, keep it up

[Lobos]

SW you're putting in some top work on here, keep it up

Get some sleep boy !

[ComplyOrDie]

Just seen Paul Nicholls said "Follow Pic D'Orhy" in reply to someone on Twitter who asked which one to follow after he put up Topofthegame two seasons back.

Big question will be where he ends up, but Arkle surely favourite currently. The danger being that Betfair/PP are standout odds, for a yard they have a close association with

[billymag]

If Paul thinks hes that good there has to be a chance that he wont go to the festival at all and he minds him for open company?

[Kevloaf]

If Paul thinks hes that good there has to be a chance that he wont go to the festival at all and he minds him for open company?

Has Paul done that with any other horses from memory?

Genuine question, just can't think of any examples... I know his top class horses didn't peak as novices, but I think the majority all still ran.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Has Paul done that with any other horses from memory?

Genuine question, just can't think of any examples... I know his top class horses didn't peak as novices, but I think the majority all still ran.

Clan Des Obeaux is the one that springs to my mind but he doesn't appear to act at the place anyway

[Kevloaf]

Clan Des Obeaux is the one that springs to my mind but he doesn't appear to act at the place anyway

He ran in a triumph didn't he?

If so, definitely sent to Cheltenham at first opportunity...

[Faugheen_Machine]

He ran in a triumph didn't he?

If so, definitely sent to Cheltenham at first opportunity...

Oh, thought you were talking novice chasers. Ignore me

[Kevloaf]

Oh, thought you were talking novice chasers. Ignore me

I suppose that'd be more relevant...

I don't know the answer, there might be loads of examples, but my first instinct was that Nicholls wouldn't bypass Cheltenham for the "future" with a horse. He'd bypass Cheltenham for other reasons, like pot hunting, but I always thought IF he has one good enough, they'll go.

Cyrname might be one actually...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Sanctuaire is another that I think skipped Cheltenham as a novice chaser.

[billymag]

Theres a few over the years, Cyrname missed chelt and went to Aintree, in fact hes still skipping cheltenham with him!!! lol. At that point in his career it would of been unusual for him to miss festival especially to still go to Aintree another left handed course

[EnvoyAllen]

Envoi Allen (for the Marsh Novices Chase) now clipped in last few days to 3/1 from 4’s with three companies and into 10/3 with several others?

Interesting development without wishing to assume anything? Those companies have cut straight to 3’s without even touching the 7/2 marker.

No smoke without fire......?

[Lobos]

Envoi Allen (for the Marsh Novices Chase) now clipped in last few days to 3/1 from 4’s with three companies and into 10/3 with several others?

Interesting development without wishing to assume anything? Those companies have cut straight to 3’s without even touching the 7/2 marker.

No smoke without fire......?

The money that has come for him can't all be from this forum can it ? Market told last year despite a late scare when the rains come. Hopefully lighting strikes twice.