Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes, my mistake. Just think that if they see him as a chaser then surely they'll not be waiting until he's 8 to send him novice chasing ?

Champ was/is 8

[Lobos]

Champ was/is 8

True. Doesn't give them much wiggle room though starting that late. A couple of seasons max In their prime years over fences.

[ComplyOrDie]

True. Doesn't give them much wiggle room though starting that late. A couple of seasons max In their prime years over fences.

Yeah, they missed the 18/19 season, for whatever reason? Unfortunately that's the risk attached, but rushing them through their development, i.e. skipping hurdles, is not usually the norm, although I know WPM has previous for it, as you noted with Florida Pearl.

[Lobos]

Yeah, they missed the 18/19 season, for whatever reason? Unfortunately that's the risk attached, but rushing them through their development, i.e. skipping hurdles, is not usually the norm, although I know WPM has previous for it, as you noted with Florida Pearl.

Apart from the freak Faugheen, I wonder how many Mullins have waited until 8 to go chasing? Very few I'd imagine. 9 out of last 12 RSA winners aged 7.

[ComplyOrDie]

Apart from the freak Faugheen, I wonder how many Mullins have waited until 8 to go chasing? Very few I'd imagine. 9 out of last 12 RSA winners aged 7.

Melon & Cash Back too for this years festival. CB probably didn't help the cause, but Melon ran an absolute blinder. In fact, the first 3 home in the Marsh were aged 8, 8 & 12 It was only the Arkle that stuck to the age bias, and even that had a 5 year old in 2nd (usually given no chance).

I tend to use the age bias for hurdling, i.e. 7 year olds in the Supreme & Ballymore, less so for chasing.

[Lobos]

Melon & Cash Back too for this years festival. CB probably didn't help the cause, but Melon ran an absolute blinder. In fact, the first 3 home in the Marsh were aged 8, 8 & 12 It was only the Arkle that stuck to the age bias, and even that had a 5 year old in 2nd (usually given no chance).

I tend to use the age bias for hurdling, i.e. 7 year olds in the Supreme & Ballymore, less so for chasing.

So a negative for Appreciate It then as a 7 year old going hurdling

Just looked it up....no 7 year old winner in Supreme or Ballymore in last 12 years. He'll need to go Albert (3)

[ComplyOrDie]

So a negative for Appreciate It then as a 7 year old going hurdling

Just looked it up....no 7 year old winner in Supreme or Ballymore in last 12 years. He'll need to go Albert (3)

Yeah, Bartlett I never use the age stat for, as don't believe any age is more or less likely to win that race. Noo idea why, but my suspicions would be something to do with older horses being outpaced in a Supreme or Ballymore and having less time to recover from that, but nothing to support this, just my own view.

[Lobos]

Yeah, Bartlett I never use the age stat for, as don't believe any age is more or less likely to win that race. Noo idea why, but my suspicions would be something to do with older horses being outpaced in a Supreme or Ballymore and having less time to recover from that, but nothing to support this, just my own view.

Or maybe only a few 7yo's have actually run in the Supreme/Ballymore in the last 12

[ComplyOrDie]

Or maybe only a few 7yo's have actually run in the Supreme/Ballymore in the last 12

I think the figures have been done before in previous years, will try and find them if I get time. Trainers must have good reason for not aiming 7yo's at the races though?

I'm backing Appreciate It 'any race' only. Would prefer him in the Bartlett, for my own reasoning, but, despite the age stat, I wouldn't be dead against him in the Ballymore. He wouldn't/won't be my main bet in that race at this stage though.

[Lobos]

I think the figures have been done before in previous years, will try and find them if I get time. Trainers must have good reason for not aiming 7yo's at the races though?

I'm backing Appreciate It 'any race' only. Would prefer him in the Bartlett, for my own reasoning, but, despite the age stat, I wouldn't be dead against him in the Ballymore. He wouldn't/won't be my main bet in that race at this stage though.

I'm just clutching my 50/1 voucher for the RSA. Not sure why.....lol !

[Saxon Warrior]

I thought about how well the Novice Chasers and Novice Hurdlers that won Grade 1 races at the Festival may have fared the next season, and my assumption was that Novice Hurdlers would fare better because many of them would stay against Novices in Novice chases - whereas Novice Chase winners would generally then compete in Open Grade 1 chases.

Taking the last 9 years of data where these Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice winners have had the chance to go back the following year, the following are the results.

Marsh Chase
1 repeat winner in 9 years.
Vautour (Mullins) followed up in the Ryanair in 2016

Those who didnt comeback to victory the following year, included Defi Du Seuil, Yorkhill, Black Hercules, and Sir Des Champs

RSA Chase
2 repeat winners in 9 years
Lord Windermere (unbelievably) won the Gold Cup in 2014
Bobs Worth won the Gold Cup in 2013

Those who didnt come back to victory the following year included Topofthegame, Presenting Percy, Might Bite, Don Poli & Blaklion.

Arkle Chase
2 repeat winners the following year
Sprinter Sacre (as expected in the Champion Chase at 1/4F)
Altior (as expected in the Champion Chase at EvensF)

Those who didnt come back to victory the following year included Footpad, Un De Sceaux, Douvan, Duc De Genievres & Simonsig. (All 4 of WPM's didnt back up the next year).

5 winners out of 27 novice chase Grade 1 winners over the 9 years, seems a pretty good strike rate.
Though Sprinter and Altior would have been very short from the get-go for the Champion Chase, Vautour got switched from the Gold Cup at the last minute to win the Ryanair, and Lord Windermere would have taken some finding.

Theres a lot of notable horses that couldnt follow-up, a lot of unsuccessful Willie Mullins horses is the standout for me, only 1 out of 9 of his Grade 1 Novice Chase winners returned to win the following year.

On the flip side, Nicky Henderson had 4 Grade 1 novice chasers winners and 3 of them returned to win the following year.
Does this augar well for CHAMP next March?

[ComplyOrDie]

The thing is with that list SW is whether you can find excuses for them too.

Marsh list - Defi Du Seuil, wrong race in follow up season, IMO, Yorkhill, just a nut job anyway, Sir Des Champs 2nd in a Gold Cup behind Bobs Worth, so one of them had to be a loser, but they were the 1-2 ahead of Long Run, so not a negative, Black Hercules never returned to Cheltenham.

RSA list - Topofthegame never run last season, Presenting Percy was lame post race, Might Bite finished 2nd and Don Poli 3rd in a Gold Cup, Blaklion has never returned to the festival.

Arkle list - Footpad was poor the season after, Un De Sceaux was behind Sprinter Sacre, one of the greats, can't be knocking that, Douvan had a fracture so an excuse, Duc Des Genievres won, as suspected by many, a poor Arkle, form looks rubbish at the top level, and Simonsig was never able to prove his ability after his fall in the Shloer.

With regards to your question regarding Champ, I think it is easy to look at the bare figures and think it would not bode well for him, but looking into the actual horses in question there are reasons for this.

The RSA definitely looks the right option for a potential Gold Cup horse, given the notable horses above, from the horses listed above, the 5 that run, 2 of them won and 2 of them placed, with the other having a physical excuse, but was sent off 10/3f on the day (I think).

[Saxon Warrior]

COD,

The data mining was done to find out the facts behind the three races, notwithstanding why the horses didnt follow-up the next year.

I suppose its the difference between antepost betting early, and betting on the day, when you quote 2 of the 4 RSA winners that turned up won, and 2 placed, you could use that stat to back on the day, and not now/antepost.

As we are talking antepost at this time of year, the biggest surprise to me, was to find out that although WPM won 1/3rd of all the novice chases in the period, that only one managed to come back and win the following year, out of nine.

And Nicky had 4 of his 4 turn up, and 3 of them to win the following year, with the other horse, Might Bite only beaten into 2nd in the Gold Cup when trying to make it 4 out of 4 for him, which is all credit to him for minding them back for Championship Grade 1's so well.

[ComplyOrDie]

COD,

The data mining was done to find out the facts behind the three races, notwithstanding why the horses didnt follow-up the next year.

I suppose its the difference between antepost betting early, and betting on the day, when you quote 2 of the 4 RSA winners that turned up won, and 2 placed, you could use that stat to back on the day, and not now/antepost.

As we are talking antepost at this time of year, the biggest surprise to me, was to find out that although WPM won 1/3rd of all the novice chases in the period, that only one managed to come back and win the following year, out of nine.

And Nicky had 4 of his 4 turn up, and 3 of them to win the following year, with the other horse, Might Bite only beaten into 2nd in the Gold Cup when trying to make it 4 out of 4 for him, which is all credit to him for minding them back for Championship Grade 1's so well.

You asked "Does this augar well for CHAMP next March?" which I took literally, and replied accordingly, with regards to how previous winners of novice chases have followed up also, but not necessarily just taking the winners into account.

I thought I'd add on to your research by finding out why these horses didn't, or in some cases, couldn't, follow up.

I was only using the horses you listed as I was being too lazy to go through years of results

[Saxon Warrior]

You asked "Does this augar well for CHAMP next March?" which I took literally, and replied accordingly, with regards to how previous winners of novice chases have followed up also, but not necessarily just taking the winners into account.

I thought I'd add on to your research by finding out why these horses didn't, or in some cases, couldn't, follow up.

I was only using the horses you listed as I was being too lazy to go through years of results

Yes with that Champ question, I did open it up to a lot of differing responses. Its all related to Hendo's wonderful record at delivering all 4 of his Grade 1 Novice Chase winners back the following year, and almost winning again with all 4 of them.

Its coincidence that he has a 5th one now for us to watch to see if he can do it again.