Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[archie]

I've said it before but it concerns me far more that they never found a reason for Sporting John being lame. If they don't know what was causing it they can't take steps to fix it and they can't be sure that it won't happen again.

For that reason, I just can't draw a line through the form until he runs well at Cheltenham in the future.

[Hardy Eustace]

Owner doesn't mind having two in a race tbf, but I also think Chantry House can go for the RSA myself, he's a 40/1 shot for that currently.

Handicap has to come into consideration for Sporting John too, as said above, the 25's, which can be boosted must be massively considered, all being well with the horse of course.

Edit: Just seen you've added him 'any race'

Yes! Handicaps could definitely be an option as well - his hurdle rating is 149 so if he proved to be just short of Grade 1 novice company they may be able to try and get him down to 145 for the novice handicap (or the plate if that gets cancelled) - he would be of interest around that mark.

[Saxon Warrior]

Philip Hobbs quotes on Sporting John on 29th April were.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/coli...r-sound/432707

Sporting John is set for chasing and a reason for his disappointing performance in the Ballymore when seventh has come to light.

"The vet saw him straight after the race and there was definitely something wrong with his hind limbs," Hobbs said. "His hind legs were not working and they should be and he was uncoordinated behind. Nevertheless within a few hours he was perfectly all right again.

"It was extremely odd but there was definitely something amiss and it's extremely likely to have affected his performance. He's been perfectly all right since and we're looking forward to him going novice chasing."

[archie]

Philip Hobbs quotes on Sporting John on 29th April were.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/coli...r-sound/432707

Sporting John is set for chasing and a reason for his disappointing performance in the Ballymore when seventh has come to light.

"The vet saw him straight after the race and there was definitely something wrong with his hind limbs," Hobbs said. "His hind legs were not working and they should be and he was uncoordinated behind. Nevertheless within a few hours he was perfectly all right again.

"It was extremely odd but there was definitely something amiss and it's extremely likely to have affected his performance. He's been perfectly all right since and we're looking forward to him going novice chasing."

And they still don't know what caused it so they can't know that it won't happen again.

[Spectre]

I'm absolutely with Archie on this one. Unless they send him early season to Cheltenham to see how he acts there I just couldn't get involved. We have no idea what the problem was, and neither has the trainer, and we only have evidence of him acting on right handed tracks. He just isn't betting material for me.

[Kautostar]

I'm absolutely with Archie on this one. Unless they send him early season to Cheltenham to see how he acts there I just couldn't get involved. We have no idea what the problem was, and neither has the trainer, and we only have evidence of him acting on right handed tracks. He just isn't betting material for me.

But surely that’s factored into the price. For a horse that went off 5/1 second fav for a ballymore the 25/1 twar gives plenty of bang for your buck on a horse that jumped hurdles beautifully, he could end up anywhere from a marsh chase to a stayers hurdle or handicap. He’s had 1 disastrously bad run which has caused him to be overpriced imo. If he wins a chase first time out even right handed he’ll be half of the current odds.

[archie]

He's rated 149 over hurdles. At least a dozen ahead of him on the ratings so you're making a twin leap of faith in terms of his soundness and potential improvement for a fence.

As with all these hunches, absolutely fine with a free bet or with cast-iron cash out but madness for real unprotected money.

[Kautostar]

I’d have to disagree Archie, he showed enough last season to prove he’s an animal of decent quality. Something went wrong in the ballymore so now he’s unexposed as we didn’t get to see how good he is against the best of his peers. Even if he completely flops over fences the twar part keeps hurdles and hcaps as an option. Plenty of upsides for me at 25/1

[Kevloaf]

Highsight showed us that Altior put away a genuine Grade 1 horse in Min, in his Supreme.

He was 5/1 for the Arkle ante post for a considerable period of time.



At the moment, Shishkin is 4/1 and it's fairly safe to say that he and Abacadabras were too close for either to be a superstar from that generation?



Food for thought perhaps on Shishkin's price?

[DeeBee]

Highsight showed us that Altior put away a genuine Grade 1 horse in Min, in his Supreme.

He was 5/1 for the Arkle ante post for a considerable period of time.



At the moment, Shishkin is 4/1 and it's fairly safe to say that he and Abacadabras were too close for either to be a superstar from that generation?



Food for thought perhaps on Shishkin's price?

A very good point Kev

For me the fact that Aba and Shiskin went 11 lengths clear of the 3rd (when the Supreme was said to be by far the hotter of the novice races) on top of Aba being the horse to get the closest to Envoi Allen (who we all know is being talked up as a superstar)

So whilst it’s early days the Aba and Envoi form remains the strongest novice form. Add in that Shiskin still looked quite novicey in the Supreme and took a bit to get going, he could have made it a bigger winning distance and then we’d be looking at it a bit more positively.. maybe?

Be interested to see others thoughts

[Kevloaf]

You can definitely view it positively, he may well improve - the point being though that there is only really room for one superstar and on all the hurdles form, we can pretty confidently say Envoi Allen is clear of the rest. Through Abacadabras, you'd expect Envoi Allen to have been winning that Supreme, meaning HE is the standout of the crop.


Fences can change so much though, Sprinter Sacre being the best example you could imagine. All I'm saying is Shishkin may NOT put in an Altior-style performance in the Supreme.

Will Abacadabras go on to be a better horse than Min?
Will Shishkin go on to be as good a horse than Altior?


Could do, but at 4/1 we're on the side of it already being factored in aren't we!





My post was mainly to tame my own enthusiasm that he is the new Altior, when at this stage he's shorter, yet achieved slightly less (probably)

[Kautostar]

You could argue shishkin’s winning distance could be upgraded and value for a little further due to the mistake down the back straight which cost him a few lengths and then the horses falling in front of him causing him to almost stop to a standstill losing lengths to a cruising Abacadabras at a vital time.

[Spectre]

I think by comparison to Envoi Allen that's a perfectly reasonable way to view Shishkin. I wouldn't be comparing him to Altior at the same stage, but I do think both he and Abracadabras are very good. Abracadabras is likely to have the tougher assignment in the Champion Hurdle though, and whichever way you look at it Shiskin comes out the better horse.

My view is that 4/1 is probably about right for Shishkin, and the reason that their prices are the same is that there is still money around for Envoi Allen in the RSA. If the Marsh was a confirmed target he'd be 5/2. Also if you compare their respective prices to Goshen in the Champion Hurdle they're an absolute steal.

[Kevloaf]

I think by comparison to Envoi Allen that's a perfectly reasonable way to view Shishkin. I wouldn't be comparing him to Altior at the same stage, but I do think both he and Abracadabras are very good. Abracadabras is likely to have the tougher assignment in the Champion Hurdle though, and whichever way you look at it Shiskin comes out the better horse.

My view is that 4/1 is probably about right for Shishkin, and the reason that their prices are the same is that there is still money around for Envoi Allen in the RSA. If the Marsh was a confirmed target he'd be 5/2. Also if you compare their respective prices to Goshen in the Champion Hurdle they're an absolute steal.

Why wouldn't you use Altior to compare him against at the same stage? Surely it's relative to look back at previous Supreme winners and their Arkle prices.


It doesn't comfirm whether or not the price should be shorter or longer, but has to be at least considered when you're working out the perceived value. Altior was a bigger price for the Arkle than Shishkin is, when on his hurdles form he'd shown he was the best novice hurdler. Shishkin has put in the 2nd (joint with Darver Star) performance, so we know he isn't.


At the time we didn't know if Altior was going chasing (similar to Shishkin though), but we knew Min was, so he had a credible challenger already as the Min bandwagon had plenty of loyal followers. If Abacadabras was going chasing, perhaps they wouldn't have put Shishkin in so short.


I put the Shishkin / Envoi Allen double up first - ignoring the parallel to Altior / Yorkhill isn't something I'll be doing - their prices are similar which is fine.



We're only talking 1 point too, and hindsight showed 5/1 for Altior was a terrific value price. Let's hope it is for Shishkin, but it's far from certain this far out as we all know.

[ComplyOrDie]

Shishkin is not a particularly slick hurdler (not sure if it's a respect thing, whereby a fence may bring out more improvement on that front), then you have a horse like Abacadabras, who is extremely slick and quick over his hurdles. I think Shishkin done well to win at all, given the trouble in running also.

I can, personally, upgrade his performance, especially if some shrewdies on here believe Abacadabras to have genuine Champion Hurdle prospects.

Altior was much slicker over his hurdles, and I know which of the two I'd prefer to have in a hurdles race. Shishkin has PTP form, so naturally he'll be looking to go over fences, which hasn't been missed in the market. I wonder what the historical market looked like for Altior in both the Arkle & the Champion Hurdle. I know Altior had Min as a rival, and therefore held his price up a little bit, whereas the general consensus is Abacadabras is staying over hurdles, so that close form tie with Shishkin to have as a potential rival is not there, like it was with Altior.