I had Darver Star backed for The Arkle but might follow you in for The Marsh. Found this piece which would indicate Marsh may be more suited https://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...on&prid=208196
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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)
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Originally posted by KevloafI think Darver Star is interesting for the Marsh Chase at 33/1.
Most obvious is The Arkle, for which he's been briefly mentioned on the forum so far... but is it obvious?
He performed really well at 2 miles, but is that his optimum trip?
His record at 2m/2m1f is:
6531323
(12.5% win)
His record at 2m3f/2m4f+ is:
9416111
(50% win)
What that doesn't tell you is the last 3 runs were 2miles in Grade 1's and he was placed in all three (323) which is a superb effort.
The question is, did he contest those Grade 1 hurdles under optimum conditions or was it because of the circumstances that there aren't any other options for him? Who is to say that he wouldn't have been more effective over further?
With that in mind, the 33/1 dangled by PP is enticing for the Marsh Novice's Chase. Whilst I have a huge amount of respect for Envoi Allen, ignoring the rest of the market this far out would be foolish and when they met Darver Star was 4L behind. Is it unfeasible that he can get closer up in trip and with fences in the way not hurdles?
Rated (159) on official figures, he's only 1lb behind Envoi Allen(160). Easily one of the top rated horses going chasing and I think he's very interesting.
I've had a "free bet" on him to win, and I'll weigh up whether to add him 'each way', as I think that's just way too big a price. His age has been over compensated for in his price currently.
Thoughts?Originally posted by BallybeenI had Darver Star backed for The Arkle but might follow you in for The Marsh. Found this piece which would indicate Marsh may be more suited https://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...on&prid=208196
Champion Hurdle third Darver Star is to be sent over fences next season with trainer Gavin Cromwell also considering a step up in trip for the highly progressive gelding.
The Danestown trainer added, “He’s going to go chasing next year. He jumps really well and hopefully he can make a nice novice chaser. He even jumps a hurdle like a fence.
“It opens up more options for him as he can step up in trip as well. I think he really wants further than two miles and more like two and a half.
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I can actually cash out the Arkle bets I have for profit at the moment
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I'm not a backer but here are some Darver Star post race quotes from RP.
10Mar20 Cheltenham (16.5Sft, RPR 162)
I was delighted with Darver Star, he ran a cracker. You'd love to win it but he tried his heart out and galloped all the way to the line, he was just lacking a gear in that class of race. The winner was very good but we kept going really well. Aintree over two and a half miles is an option but I'll get him home first. This time last year he was rated 104 so we're delighted! - Gavin Cromwell, trainer.
13Oct19 Limerick (21Hy, RPR 138)
He's been very progressive. I don't know where we'll go after that but it's possible he could head to Cheltenham in November, we'll see how he comes out of today. At some stage he could probably go over three miles but he won over two miles and a furlong at Killarney too, so he could go back in trip as well. We'd stick to the novice route with the way he's going, although I know I said a while back that he could go chasing. He had a bit of leg trouble before I got him but the owners were very patient with him thankfully - Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Darver Star
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Originally posted by JackieMoon33I'm not a backer but here are some Darver Star post race quotes from RP.
10Mar20 Cheltenham (16.5Sft, RPR 162)
I was delighted with Darver Star, he ran a cracker. You'd love to win it but he tried his heart out and galloped all the way to the line, he was just lacking a gear in that class of race. The winner was very good but we kept going really well. Aintree over two and a half miles is an option but I'll get him home first. This time last year he was rated 104 so we're delighted! - Gavin Cromwell, trainer.
13Oct19 Limerick (21Hy, RPR 138)
He's been very progressive. I don't know where we'll go after that but it's possible he could head to Cheltenham in November, we'll see how he comes out of today. At some stage he could probably go over three miles but he won over two miles and a furlong at Killarney too, so he could go back in trip as well. We'd stick to the novice route with the way he's going, although I know I said a while back that he could go chasing. He had a bit of leg trouble before I got him but the owners were very patient with him thankfully - Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Darver Star
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I am surprised Darver Star did so well in those 3 Grade 1 races over 2M.
His best form was around 2M4F before that, with 4 out of 5 wins over the trip, once he started his rise to the top.
He was being outpaced in his first two 2M Grade 1's, but seemed more at home hunting up the leaders in the Champion Hurdle, which is a good sign for future Festival runs. (He still led at the last!)
The 2M4F Grade 1 hurdle races are few and far between, so he looked like he may have been pushed down the 2M route because of the race programme, then denied the chance to go to Aintree over 2M4F in a Grade 1 when the virus broke.
His breeding seems to be 2M4F on the mares side, her sire was Oscar too, which points to distances in excess of 2M.
Darvers Star's sire is Kalanisi, who's top chasing progeny look to be at trips of 2M4F
* Kalashnikov Grade 1 Chase over 2M4F,
* Brain Power Grade 1 Chase over 2MF, and
* Imperial Aura (Listed Hcap Festival winner over 2M4F).
All three of these had damsires no stouter than Darvers Star's.
I havent backed him for the Arkle, but I would back him for the Marsh at 33/1."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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The three I've picked out as alternatives to Envoi Allen are Easywork, Chantry House, and Fiddlerontheroof. In the case of Easywork Gordon has an embarrassment of riches for the staying trips so surely Easywork is a standout from all of his to go here. Nicky has already said Chantry House is most likely to go to two and a half miles, and Fiddlerontheroof surely goes here when he was crying out for further than two over hurdles, and should have been a Ballymore horse last season.
I am convinced sufficiently to add Darver Star now though. I'd considered him a while ago but hadn't seen the quotes that Cromwell said he was likely to go up in trip so didn't feel that I could back him. So thanks for everyone's comments on this thread, I've just added him at 33/1, and I'll pop him in my diary shortly.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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I do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.
The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.
33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
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Originally posted by Hardy EustaceI do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.
The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.
33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
Or, "well how many have even tried"
Each case needs looking at on its own merit IMO.
The but, in this case, is how many horses like Darver Star miss so much time and improve so drastically? I would never ever have considered him at the start of last season, he improved from 104 to 159, which is staggering.
I think his hurdle rating is perfectly believable too, 3 very consistent runs.
His first run was Dec 2018, so March 2021 is only going to mean he has been "in-training"/"on the go" less than 3.5 years, which is not normal for a horse that will be 9.
So he's an anomoly. He is however the 2nd highest rated hurdler going Novice Chasing so to ignore him based on his age alone would be too dismissive of the other factors... for al lthat I think he'll probably find one or two too good by March next year!
One for a book for sure, not a basket to put all your eggs in - that's how I see him.
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Originally posted by SpectreThe three I've picked out as alternatives to Envoi Allen are Easywork, Chantry House, and Fiddlerontheroof. In the case of Easywork Gordon has an embarrassment of riches for the staying trips so surely Easywork is a standout from all of his to go here. Nicky has already said Chantry House is most likely to go to two and a half miles, and Fiddlerontheroof surely goes here when he was crying out for further than two over hurdles, and should have been a Ballymore horse last season.
Something I haven't seen anyone mention (probably missed it), is that Chantry House was ahead of Monkfish & Co. in the PTP that Monkfish won, before unseating 3 out, that was over 3m and whilst no guarantee he would have been in front at the end it must surely come into some sort consideration.
Last horse I found that went from Supreme to RSA was Shaneshill, when finishing 2nd to Blaklion by 1/2 length.
Nicky has Glynn, and JP has Sporting John to fit in, provided both end up good enough over fences of course, and no reason to believe they wouldn't at this stage.
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Originally posted by Hardy Eustace View PostI do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.
The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.
33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
Darver Star only debuted on a racecourse 3 weeks before he turned 7, (December 2018), so he has had little more than a season racing, which for me covers the age angle, as he is "race-young" and had only had 15 months hurdling in total.
Samcro and Melon had a much bigger span of time in their racing careers than DS, and were 1st and 2nd in the Marsh this March, aged 8yo, with Faugheen aged 12 close up in 3rd.
(They were the only runners over 7yo in the race, and they trounced the 5,6 & 7yo's)
Darver Star's RPR on his first run at Cheltenham was 162 which compares well with Samcro and Melon's Cheltenham Grade 1 Hurdles best performances, before they switched to fences last season.
I do follow stats a fair bit, but they don't stop me backing anything that is statistically unusual (ie: Espoir D'Allen a 5yo in a Champion Hurdle)."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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It will be difficult to split the Gigi horses up CoD, but at this stage the more obvious ones for the Marsh trip are Column Of Fire and Easywork. I agree it's not out of the question for Easywork to go to the RSA, but looking at their options you'd think the Marsh is more likley. And Column Of Fire could end up down the handicap route anyway. Then they have half a dozen or more that look like they will have to make decisions to split between the RSA and the NH Chase.
The other thought is given the sheer number of top quality stayers they have, is that something stays over hurdles to be aimed at the Stayers Hurdle. Assuming they're all fit and well, I wonder whether they'll be tempted to do so with either Fury Road or Commander Of Fleet? And if not, which of the Gigi horses would you aim that way?
I'm not sure what to make of either Glynn or Sporting John to be honest.
I think Glynn is likely to be one of those horses that if he ends up being the real deal I'll be too late on to him. He's a twice raced six year old that will go to the Festival as a really inexperienced 7 year old novice chaser. If he wasn't with Henderson I wouldn't even consider him, but Henderson is very good at finding an under-faced Glynn type horse that excels when it sees a fence. I can only assume he's either a big backward horse, and they've been really patient with him because they highly rate him, or he's had a few problems?
Sporting John was off the bridle and hating the race at Cheltenham. He was almost mulelish as he went up the hill and round the bend after the stands. He was absolutely hating it. They found nothing wrong afterwards, and it could be he needs to go right handed given that's all he'd done beforehand. Until he proves it on a stiff right-handed track I couldn't touch him. Hopefully they'll send him back to Cheltenham in October or November to find out.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Sporting John was reported as lame behind, immediately after the Ballymore.
May 2020
I’ve also read about this elsewhere since, words along the lines that he wasn’t travelling or jumping well from early on, and put a line through the form as he was found to be injured post race.
Sporting John is set for chasing and a reason for his disappointing performance in the Ballymore when seventh has come to light.
"The vet saw him straight after the race and there was definitely something wrong with his hind limbs," Hobbs said. "His hind legs were not working and they should be and he was uncoordinated behind. Nevertheless within a few hours he was perfectly all right again.
"It was extremely odd but there was definitely something amiss and it's extremely likely to have affected his performance. He's been perfectly all right since and we're looking forward to him going novice chasing.""Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Saxon WarriorSporting John was reported as lame behind, immediately after the Ballymore.
May 2020
I’ve also read about this elsewhere since, words along the lines that he wasn’t travelling or jumping well from early on, and put a line through the form as he was found to be injured post race.
Sporting John is set for chasing and a reason for his disappointing performance in the Ballymore when seventh has come to light.
"The vet saw him straight after the race and there was definitely something wrong with his hind limbs," Hobbs said. "His hind legs were not working and they should be and he was uncoordinated behind. Nevertheless within a few hours he was perfectly all right again.
"It was extremely odd but there was definitely something amiss and it's extremely likely to have affected his performance. He's been perfectly all right since and we're looking forward to him going novice chasing."
He is rated 149 over hurdles, so only 4lb higher than the requirements to get in the Novice Chase Handicap, with some tactical placing, but they seem to like him so would be surprised if they weren't to at least have a crack at the top intermediate novice chases and see how he fares there before plotting his festival destination.
I had already got involved with him for small stakes for the Marsh at 44/1 which I believe may still be available as well. I think his 'any race' price is lovely though (believing his well being reports), and will be honing in on that soon.
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Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View PostSporting John was reported as lame behind, immediately after the Ballymore.
May 2020
I’ve also read about this elsewhere since, words along the lines that he wasn’t travelling or jumping well from early on, and put a line through the form as he was found to be injured post race.
Sporting John is set for chasing and a reason for his disappointing performance in the Ballymore when seventh has come to light.
"The vet saw him straight after the race and there was definitely something wrong with his hind limbs," Hobbs said. "His hind legs were not working and they should be and he was uncoordinated behind. Nevertheless within a few hours he was perfectly all right again.
"It was extremely odd but there was definitely something amiss and it's extremely likely to have affected his performance. He's been perfectly all right since and we're looking forward to him going novice chasing."
*he is 25/1 TWAR which I have been toying with for a while but will now add.
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Originally posted by Hardy EustaceI would certainly be willing to give him another go at 33/1 for the Arkle and 40/1 for the Marsh - with the owners also having Chantry House who Nicky has openly said he wants to step up in trip - where do you think Sporting John will end up?
Handicap has to come into consideration for Sporting John too, as said above, the 25's, which can be boosted must be massively considered, all being well with the horse of course.
Edit: Just seen you've added him 'any race'
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