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I know he's mentioned elsewhere on the forum but Felix Desjy needs bringing into the conversation here doesn't he?
A big player - based on a flat run.....
I’ve missed the TWAR price on him after his win this evening. Where do you predict he’ll end up?? I think he will stay over hurdles and think he will be aimed at one of the handicap hurdles
I’ve missed the TWAR price on him after his win this evening. Where do you predict he’ll end up?? I think he will stay over hurdles and think he will be aimed at one of the handicap hurdles
He did school over fences last season and chasing was the plan then.....maybe just having a go at an early season hcap hurdle then onto chasing?
I’ve missed the TWAR price on him after his win this evening. Where do you predict he’ll end up?? I think he will stay over hurdles and think he will be aimed at one of the handicap hurdles
Arkle I'd assume....
Galway for a h'cap hurdle then a couple of novice chases.... put him away and bring him back 2021 to place in the Arkle.
Who have Gigginstown got pencilled in for novice chasing next season??
Diol Ker, Fury Road, Easygame, Run Wild Fred, Commander of Fleet, Cracking Smart, Cobblers Way.....any others?? They are all 2.5mile or further horses.
None of the above are 2 milers so yeah Felix Desjsy may be their only option for the Arkle
Who have Gigginstown got pencilled in for novice chasing next season??
Diol Ker, Fury Road, Easygame, Run Wild Fred, Commander of Fleet, Cracking Smart, Cobblers Way.....any others?? They are all 2.5mile or further horses.
None of the above are 2 milers so yeah Felix Desjsy may be their only option for the Arkle
Column Of Fire
I don't think they buy horses to target races like The Arkle, however they do have runners and he is most likely to stay at 2m I'd think.
At his age you'd think it's this season or never for Felix Desjy over fences, so the Arkle is the most likely route. Also I can't see anything else Gordon might have for the job. I'm sure he has plenty of options he can less obviously plot up for the County.
That said I backed Felix Desjy early for the Arkle on news of his well being so I could be making the argument fit, rather than what will actually happen.
Can anyone make a really strong case for him to stay over hurdles?
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
At his age you'd think it's this season or never for Felix Desjy over fences, so the Arkle is the most likely route. Also I can't see anything else Gordon might have for the job. I'm sure he has plenty of options he can less obviously plot up for the County.
That said I backed Felix Desjy early for the Arkle on news of his well being so I could be making the argument fit, rather than what will actually happen.
Can anyone make a really strong case for him to stay over hurdles?
This is the quote from Gordon after Aintree last year....
We thought Felix Desjy would like the track here today, and Jack was good and brave and let him stride along, and if he'd got beaten for doing that, he wouldn't have been getting the blame. Maybe he got a bit of a freebie, but that's the name of the game. Jack used his initiative and that's why we use these lads. I thought we might be in trouble after he made that mistake, but in fairness to the horse, in the last 50, 100 yards you couldn't fault him - he picked up and went on. Chasing is going to be his game, but this was a great run. Jack knows the horse at home - too many instructions would only complicate it - Gordon Elliott, trainer.
With no obvious alternative for GE in the Arkle, he could easily end up the stable Arkle horse. 33/1 with cash out our 44/1 with a boost?
I might chance the latter.
*I couldn't resist. The Aintree form does look better now than it did at the time., With Amaron, Rouge Vif and Itchy Feet in behind.
1pt ew 44/1
I think Darver Star is interesting for the Marsh Chase at 33/1.
Most obvious is The Arkle, for which he's been briefly mentioned on the forum so far... but is it obvious?
He performed really well at 2 miles, but is that his optimum trip?
His record at 2m/2m1f is:
6531323
(12.5% win)
His record at 2m3f/2m4f+ is:
9416111
(50% win)
What that doesn't tell you is the last 3 runs were 2miles in Grade 1's and he was placed in all three (323) which is a superb effort.
The question is, did he contest those Grade 1 hurdles under optimum conditions or was it because of the circumstances that there aren't any other options for him? Who is to say that he wouldn't have been more effective over further?
With that in mind, the 33/1 dangled by PP is enticing for the Marsh Novice's Chase. Whilst I have a huge amount of respect for Envoi Allen, ignoring the rest of the market this far out would be foolish and when they met Darver Star was 4L behind. Is it unfeasible that he can get closer up in trip and with fences in the way not hurdles?
Rated (159) on official figures, he's only 1lb behind Envoi Allen(160). Easily one of the top rated horses going chasing and I think he's very interesting.
I've had a "free bet" on him to win, and I'll weigh up whether to add him 'each way', as I think that's just way too big a price. His age has been over compensated for in his price currently.
I know you're not as big on breeding as some of us on here, but it would suggest no issue for Darver Star to step up in trip either, just something I like to briefly look at
I know you're not as big on breeding as some of us on here, but it would suggest no issue for Darver Star to step up in trip either, just something I like to briefly look at
Just looking at that market, there has to be some excellent each way value.
Envoi Allen is 4/1 favourite...
Shishkin I would say has less than 1% chance of running, and he's 12/1
Then it's 16/1 Honeysuckle and The Big Getaway. The latter more likely to be in the RSA and personally I don't think Honeysuckle will run here however you could pay your money and take your chance with that.
Then it's 20/1 bar....
Envoi Allen won't get a walkover, so should probably focus some efforts into working out the e/w value!
The problem of course being it's very hard to nail down this trip as a target for any horse this far out.
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