Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Spectre]

I've just added a Skybet double any race with Shiskin in the Arkle. I can't believe I hadn't already done this one unless it's fairly new and hadn't seen it.

[Joleg]

Not sure if this would interest you Spectre but there is a National Hunt RAB on Sky for Envoi Allen to remain unbeaten in the 20/21 jumps season (must run at least 3 times or bet void) 8-1

[Spectre]

It's not normally the kind of bet I use Joleg, and 8/1 feels a bit stingy given he'll probably run at least four times. If I were to consider an unbeaten bet I think I'd prefer it with a hurdler rather than a novice chaser anyway.

I think there are only two things that get Envoi Allen beaten this season and that's an injury or a bad mistake/fall. Shishkin similar. They stay fit and stand up they are the best two long range bets of the Festival. Both will halve in odds after their seasonal debuts, and then trade at evens or odds on after winning around Christmas. Aside from Easysland every other bet anyone has in their books area bigger price for a reason.

Compare the Champion Hurdle market for example. Epatante at 4's with shades of 7/2, Goschen 9/2 and as low as 4's and Abracadabras 6's and 7's. Do you really want to be backing any of those ahead of Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Easysland who are an absolute must max stake trixie (sepearate doubles and treble), to have in your book.

It still comes back to adequate cover for Envoi Allen going to the RSA though. Having reflected though I think the answer has been staring me in the face. Any more bets for him must be 'any race' multiples, and I can cover the RSA in a single during the season if there's any inkling he goes that way.

[Vautour]

I’m very bullish that he will go Marsh.

The RSA looks redhot at the moment (though could change once the season gets going) and Gordon like to aim horses at the easiest race.

Don Cossack was deemed a superstar and went the mid distance route before tackling the Gold Cup (though did run in the RSA which Im sure he’s said he regrets).

I think Cheveley will do whatever Gordon says. My impression this year was they wanted Allaho in the RSA more than Willie did and they may be less likely to air their views to the trainer.

[Lobos]

It's not normally the kind of bet I use Joleg, and 8/1 feels a bit stingy given he'll probably run at least four times. If I were to consider an unbeaten bet I think I'd prefer it with a hurdler rather than a novice chaser anyway.

I think there are only two things that get Envoi Allen beaten this season and that's an injury or a bad mistake/fall. Shishkin similar. They stay fit and stand up they are the best two long range bets of the Festival. Both will halve in odds after their seasonal debuts, and then trade at evens or odds on after winning around Christmas. Aside from Easysland every other bet anyone has in their books area bigger price for a reason.

Compare the Champion Hurdle market for example. Epatante at 4's with shades of 7/2, Goschen 9/2 and as low as 4's and Abracadabras 6's and 7's. Do you really want to be backing any of those ahead of Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Easysland who are an absolute must max stake trixie (sepearate doubles and treble), to have in your book.

It still comes back to adequate cover for Envoi Allen going to the RSA though. Having reflected though I think the answer has been staring me in the face. Any more bets for him must be 'any race' multiples, and I can cover the RSA in a single during the season if there's any inkling he goes that way.

Not sure I'd have any chaser over hurdlers in respect of multiples especially Novices. Too risky for me in that they could fail to take to fences and even if they do there is a much bigger chance they could fall when they get to the festival.

[Kevloaf]

I think Cheveley will do whatever Gordon says. My impression this year was they wanted Allaho in the RSA more than Willie did and they may be less likely to air their views to the trainer.

A bit of a leap to think that based on one 'wrong' decision they'd change their philosophy and relinquish their power and do whatever a different trainer says.



Let's hope they consider the Marsh to be the most logical race for him too. The fact his novice hurdle campaign was over shorter than Allaho's was is enough for me to remain confident that we're correct on the target at this stage though

[archie]

As I've said several times, the yard considered Allaho a potential Gold Cup horse most of last season. Some quotes may indicate that they changed their minds after the RSA but there's no chance that Willie would have been pressured in to running in that race. It's just not the way they work.

[The King Pimm]

I still don’t think racing Allaho in the RSA was a bad decision, it was the right decision IMO, he just got out stayed in the last 100 yards. If he had put in a performance like Copperhead or Easy Game then yeah you’d could state it was the wrong race but he only lost by 2 lengths. It was a very similar result to the 2019 RSA and Santini and LiT went on to perform very well in this seasons GC. Personally I don’t think Allaho will have the tactical pace for the Ryanair and a bold front running effort in the Gold Cup may be his best option. I still think he’s a really good horse and is good enough to compete in the GC. Like Delta Work he may just need another season to improve his physical and mental strengths to win a race like the GC so even if he doesn’t win next seasons he’s young enough to try again.

[SamuelP]

Think it was common knowledge anyway but on Twitter today there's a little clip of Emitom and owner states he is almost certain to be going over fences next season.

[Vautour]

Put a 5pt treble yesterday on Le Chiffre (Won yesterday at 5-1), Shiskin (A) and Envoi (M) - looking forward to my return at 1.36pm on the Thursday next March!

[Kevloaf]

Put a 5pt treble yesterday on Le Chiffre (Won yesterday at 5-1), Shiskin (A) and Envoi (M) - looking forward to my return at 1.36pm on the Thursday next March!

I hope your 30 point double lands


Let us know when you next have a 5/1 winner up your sleeve too, I could do with one at the moment

[Faugheen_Machine]

I hope your 30 point double lands


Let us know when you next have a 5/1 winner up your sleeve too, I could do with one at the moment

Kev has a point - I think you've made the current aftertiming list after that post V.

[billymag]

Yes sorry Vautour you cant get away with a shameless aftertime like that!!!!

[Middle_Of_March]

Put a 5pt treble yesterday on Le Chiffre (Won yesterday at 5-1), Shiskin (A) and Envoi (M) - looking forward to my return at 1.36pm on the Thursday next March!

Filthy aftertiming that

[Lobos]

Filthy aftertiming that

Figures.....