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Is it the JP ownership angle folk are liking for the NH route with Janidil? Can't say seems an obvious type for the race imo.
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I think it's also that despite his campaign pre Cheltenham, Willie thought he was a staying type and put him in the Albert Bartlett.Originally posted by Outlaw
Despite finishing 'only 8th', the Albert Bartlett is littered with horses that didn't feature at the business end but went on to have excellent results thereafter, including some in the National Hunt Chase.
I don't know where he'd end up but can see why people may chance 33/1 with 365 when they could likely cash out if the target does look wrong at one stage. In fact, I might just do that
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Pretty sure Norton's put him up at 50/1 a few weeks ago.Originally posted by KevloafI think it's also that despite his campaign pre Cheltenham, Willie thought he was a staying type and put him in the Albert Bartlett.
Despite finishing 'only 8th', the Albert Bartlett is littered with horses that didn't feature at the business end but went on to have excellent results thereafter, including some in the National Hunt Chase.
I don't know where he'd end up but can see why people may chance 33/1 with 365 when they could likely cash out if the target does look wrong at one stage. In fact, I might just do thatComment
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Think he’ll be aimed at the rsa myself, jp likes a runner there too! He has several likely candidates for the nh chase and looks a bit light on genuine rsa contenders at this stage. Mullins also has a few that could be aimed at the nh chase.Originally posted by Outlaw View PostComment
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Yeah I know the AB loves a "flopper" going forward so to speak, just don't see the appeal of him over further. We all know Willie don't arse about with the brown plate/Ultima ,only intermediate trip of the Marsh not many will want to take on Envoi if sticking there potentially so could end up an RSA type not that he's light there next season. If Gordy had him he'd be plotting him to lose a few lbs already and he'd be a steady anyrace poke.Comment
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Well I suppose the people that do like him / have backed him ... are confident Willie is right about the trip.Originally posted by Outlaw
Your eye probably isn't as good for these things as his?
I think I'd have backed him if he was with Gordon though too.Comment
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Which horses you referring too that JP will have for the NH Chase? I think he’s a bit thin on the ground the season ahead. Apart from Dickie Diver I cant think of any other JP horses that will be aimed over that kind distance as a novice??Originally posted by KautostarComment
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Apologies if this seems pedantic but Janidil was 5th in the AB, beaten 11 1/2 lengths. He was 4th last jumping the second last and going very easily. Then made up ground but had his run checked and couldn't go with the front four on the run to the last. Plugged on up the hill to finish 5th. Would be a very classy contender in the 4-miler. You can also back him 22-1 (including bet boost) twar with Hills.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI think it's also that despite his campaign pre Cheltenham, Willie thought he was a staying type and put him in the Albert Bartlett.
Despite finishing 'only 8th', the Albert Bartlett is littered with horses that didn't feature at the business end but went on to have excellent results thereafter, including some in the National Hunt Chase.
I don't know where he'd end up but can see why people may chance 33/1 with 365 when they could likely cash out if the target does look wrong at one stage. In fact, I might just do that
Here's why I think he could end up in the NH Chase (from diary May 11):
I just want to highlight Janidil as a speculative punt for the National Hunt Chase.
He's 50-1 with Unibet but could well be favourite IF he lines up on the day. And yes I accept that's a big IF but at 50-1......
I've been trying to work out what target Willie and JP will choose for him at next year's Festival and I don't think the NH Chase is quite so fanciful.
He's six now and picked up 2 big handicap hurdle pots over 2miles this season before finishing fifth in the AB, just over 11 lengths behind Monkfish. I'm a big fan and backed him that day. It was his first try over 3miles and Mark Walsh held him up right out the back. He came through nicely to track the leaders in the straight but he got left behind the front four when things got serious. To be honest I was slightly disappointed but it was a very hot race and MW was asking a lot to win it from out the back.
Janidil's got a lot of options next season.
He could stay hurdling (rated 149) and go for the County Hurdle, Coral Cup or the Stayers Hurdle (best price 66-1).
He could go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle (bp 40-1), the Marsh (not quoted), the RSA (bp 40-1), the NH Chase or even one of the handicaps.
Think it's true Willie prefers the championship races to the handicaps so let's assume that's the way he'll want to go with Janidil who he talked up for the AB in the run up to the Festival even though all his starts for the stable had been over 2 miles (2 1 1 2).
Let's also assume he goes chasing which as he'll be seven next year seems likely.
I think the Arkle is the least likely option for Janidil as his strength is stamina rather than electric pace. Willie could also possibly have Klassical Dream, Elixir D'ainay and maybe even Sagalway and Aramon for the Arkle.
The Marsh is certainly a possibility but that's also probably going to be flying a bit high for Janidil. Willie has The Big Getaway and maybe Elixir D'ainay as likely contenders here - the last named in the same JP ownership as Janidil.
The RSA is also entirely a possibility but Willie has the likely favourite in Monkfish.
So that leaves the NH Chase where I know a lot of people are on Aione at fancy prices. Aione is a great bet and Patrick has already made encouraging remarks that this is his likely target. But if Janidil lines up against Aione I can't see any reason why he won't confirm his 11-length superiority over Aione in the AB.
What about JP's likely novice chase contenders?
Band of Outlaws and Aramax could go chasing and be in the mix over 2m with Elix D'ainay, Andy Dufresne and possibly Early Doors in the Marsh or RSA.
Granted, JP has a weaker hand than Willie in the novice chase division but he usually has a fancied runner in the NH Chase.
At a Festival preview Patrick Mullins said Mark Walsh absolutely loves Janidil and Patrick himself said it was exceptional for a novice hurdler to win two big open handicaps in his debut season.
And the fact that Willie was already thinking in terms of the AB despite Janidil's success over 2m makes me think a small interest in 50-1 for the NH Chase is not completely daft.
If Janidil does go chasing we are unlikely to find out his absolute target until March so there might be a bit of wriggle room to lay off part of the bet.Comment
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Sorry NC200, that was a genuine typo, sausage fingers must have hit the 8 not the 5
It was a good case made at the time, I haven't backed it yet but just because there isn't a rush IMO.Comment
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No it's not, id take 2nd in that contest every time thouOriginally posted by Kevloaf.
Your eye probably isn't as good for these things as his?
NC200, i'm certainly not knocking a 50-1 33/1 whatever poke he is, just was curious to what people had in mind with him being name checked a few times. You continue to articulate very well for what it's worth.Comment
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....from what I can see, Janidil is now 20-1 with Unibet for the NH Chase. Best price is 33-1 with 365.Comment
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In my opinion Janidil seemed to be ridden to get the trip in the AB as he’d never raced beyond 2m2f before and that was before Willie had him. Did he plug on, one paced and need further or did the tank empty? Personally I’d be inclined to say the latter and he’ll be back over shorter next season.Comment
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Now that everyone seems to be getting stuck into things and more diaries are appearing, I thought I’d get some more of my shortlist posted. This one was in danger of falling through the cracks as he’d gone on to last years list as a novice hurdler but after one run was immediately put on the ‘one for next season’ list. When starting my 20/21 list I somehow overlooked him until I went back to check I’d covered everything.
Ask For Glory - Paul Nicholls - RSA
Rewind two years ago and this fella was lining up in the Champion Bumper after an impressive debut at Chepstow where he’d posted very good figures. Nicholls is not known for having many festival bumper runners but he took his chance and finished 9th behind Envoi Allen in what proved to be one of the better bumpers in recent times. It was probably of non surprise that he was unable to get in the mix as he’d been bought to be a staying chaser for £280,000 after his impressive PtP win.
Fast forward to November 2019 and (after a customary wind op) he was pitched in on hurdles debut in a decent enough field over an inadequate 2m. He was still there pitching at the last where he was impeded by a faller and then was tenderly ridden home in fourth. The result was as expected and in true Nicholls ‘future staying chaser’ fashion, he was kept off the track until February 2020 where he reappeared over a more suitable 2m5f at Wincanton. He demolished a poor field that day leading from pretty much start to finish without getting out of second gear.
There is not a huge amount of form in the book but given the fact he was always a patient, long term prospect, it’s hardly surprising he wasn’t pitched in at the deep end again over hurdles. He looks like he possesses a real engine and has the size to make a chaser, especially with another summer to fill out. He’s also with the right trainer to make the most of this type of horse too. Whilst the AB looked good in 2020 and the RSA could be a hot race next season, it would not surprise me if Ask For Glory was better than his current price of 40/1 and could become a contender. Even as a cash out option his price will contract quickly due to the trainer and colours if he makes a successful start.Comment
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Fair shout Jackie.
I may be missing some, but trying to gauge Paul's potential novice chasers for the coming season, so far come up with Quel Destin, Pic D'Orhy, Enrilo, Thyme White (although flat bred, so wouldn't top of my list), Calva D'Auge, Malaya, Posh Trish & Ecco (although another flat bred), including your one Ask For Glory. Not many 3m chasing types there with the exception of your shout, so could be a good thing, in terms of getting on side.
I've left the four year olds, Solo and Sir Psycho out, as Paul never seems in a rush for them to go over fences and I suspect they will have another season over hurdles.Comment
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Paul Nicholls or Harry Durham (I can't recall which one) hinted that McFabulous might go Novice chasing this coming season* after resuming initially over hurdles. I have backed him already for the Stayers Hurdle but if he can jump a fence then I'm wondering whether the RSA could be his target rather than shorter distances.Originally posted by ComplyOrDieComment
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