Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

My point was more if the marsh is looking hot if say chantry house, Klassical dream etc look decent and the rsa looks very weak it could look the easier option to go down the rsa route for a penalty kick.

Easywork, Andy dufresne, column of fire could go to the marsh and envoi rsa if cof/fury road flops or gets injured.

Just playing devils advocate here as I think envoi will go the marsh

That doesn't stack up though still.

Would it be a 'hot renewal' if Envoi Allen has to face Chantry House? Any of the novices from last season? I would back him to beat any of them over any distance, so he's EA that'll pick his easiest conditions and he's already proven at this (Marsh) trip.

More generally, where and why would they try EA over 3m before the festival? Surely the Flogas over 2m6f is the furthest he'd go? I cannot envisage the first time he goes 3m being the RSA no matter what's happened there either.


Klassical Dream is the only horse (and we don't even know he's going Novice Chasing) that Envoi Allen hasn't proven he's superior too, although I'd fancy Klassical Dream wouldn't have won this years novice hurdle renewals had he been in that crop.




For me, Easywork or Andy Dufresne going for the Marsh would mean something had gone wrong with EA, either injured or they literally usurped him as better novice chasers.... if that's the case the bet'd be donw anyway!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

You are making a good case Kev and I might have to update my prices as can see that 4/7 Marsh getting hammered. All jokes aside is a useful conversation as is helping me decide how many free bets to keep piling into him over the summer months

[ComplyOrDie]

Gigginstown won't be telling Gordon to avoid EA at all costs though so Elliott could send a few to the Marsh, a few to the RSA and on and on. Envoi Allen has little relevance to other stablemates with different owners, IMO. A lot of novice hurdlers that are likely to go chasing to sort out for him.

I actually wouldn't be put off Fury Road going to the Marsh myself. Not priced up though.

[Craigy14]

Definitely in the Marsh EA camp, just think he shows plenty speed and the trip will suit him perfectly as the ballymore did imo.

I’m not saying he doesn’t stay 3m, I have no doubt he will in the future.

Easywork could quite easily be giggs Arkle horse, but it’s all guesswork at this stage.

Fury Road is RSA or NHC surely though? He’s a proper stayer, certainly looks it to me. Don’t think he would have any chance in the Marsh imo.

[billymag]

Mentioned this before and I know it wont be the popular view but did anyone else feel like Envoi Allen might of be coming towards the end of his stamina in the Ballymore? he had to be dragged in front of the crowd. Might be nothing but at such short prices whenever he runs ill be considering taking him on if he tries 3 miles in decent company.

[Faugheen_Machine]

He might have been Billy.

They went at a proper pace in the Ballymore and he still put in a impressive turn of foot 3f out so the petrol gauge might have been emptying slightly. It would have been surprising if he wasn't tiring.

He settles so well that I don't think the step up in trip will cause him any issues. It could be a while before they test him at 3 miles, might even be December 2021.

[Istabraq]

Not for me Billy.
He is a rogue and just gets lazy at times, I’m convinced when he goes past horses he thinks his job is done and half pulls up, you don’t produce that turn of foot and empty 200 yards later, plenty in the tank for me....

[TigerRolllllll]

Great idea to combine this trade early season....and could be an exciting season with lot of horses i like....though many not sure where they will go

Thoughts so far...

Arkle
------

Got to like Shiskin, but not interested at the price and i think their are several other ones at decent prices that are worth getting in the book with potential to be decent

So far have got....Elixir D'ainay at 50s, Pic D'orhy at 28s (biggest bet), Captain Guiness at 22s and Energumene at 45s

I find the Ankle hard A/post.....and have had last couple of years winners later on in NRNB market....but i only bet for fun, so the book building begins (and i like a big book!)

Marsh
------

Only bet is Chantry House at 20s (and with cashout)

I think this tends to be a terrible race A/post....i got lucky last year with some doubles on Samcro, who became one of my biggest ever winners at festival.....but even then better prices were available later

If Envoi goes here, hard to see him beaten and for once, prob won't be building much of a book on this race....least for a while

RSA
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This is becoming one of my fav races to watch and think we are seeing some great talent emerge from the race....don't forget Al Boum came from this race too

The Albert Bartlett form again looks strong and so have several in the book......Monkfish at 12s (not great price, but prob won't lengthen if he is any good), Latest Exhibition at 18s, Fury Road at 18s,

Also added the 2 BIGs....Getaway at 28s and Breakaway at 37s......prefer Getaway, but Tizzard good at chasers and maybe was out of form so worth small interest

Prob too many at this stage.....but top of market has been pretty consistent in this race last couple of years and my approach is always to have a big book (more fun and had paid well enough last 2 years since started A/post)


Probably obvious - but at this stage Shiskin, Envoi, Monkfish looks the trio.....tho think Pic D'orhy could be one to watch too

[Saxon Warrior]

Great idea to combine this trade early season....and could be an exciting season with lot of horses i like....though many not sure where they will go


RSA
-----

The Albert Bartlett form again looks strong and so have several in the book......Monkfish at 12s (not great price, but prob won't lengthen if he is any good), Latest Exhibition at 18s, Fury Road at 18s,

Also added the 2 BIGs....Getaway at 28s and Breakaway at 37s......prefer Getaway, but Tizzard good at chasers and maybe was out of form so worth small interest

Prob too many at this stage.....but top of market has been pretty consistent in this race last couple of years and my approach is always to have a big book (more fun and had paid well enough last 2 years since started A/post)

Tiger,
I would be more keen on EASYWORK for the RSA Chase than anything at the front of the market.

After a hurdles debut win over 2M from Mount Leinster (RPR 143 on hurdles debut) - Gordon Elliotts quote was:-

23Nov19 Gowran Park (16Hy, RPR 143)
He's a grand horse who loves that soft ground. I really fancied him in a winners' bumper last year but there were two fair horses that beat him on the day. He's a nice horse with plenty of improvement in him. He settled well. He's a chaser and anything he does this year will be a bonus for next year - Gordon Elliott, trainer of Easywork

A step up to 2M4F next time out brought that infamous thrashing of odds-on fav Unexcepted by 22 lengths, with an RPR of 153.

Straight into fav for the 2M Grade 1 Hurdle at the DRF after that, which was run over too short a trip, and a runner up finish in a strung-out field (RPR 146) behind easy winner Asterion Forlonge.

Final run in the Ballymore brought a step back up in trip to 2M5F and his best performance to date (RPR 155) when only Envoi Allen could lower his colours, with the Two Bigs well beaten into 3rd and 4th.

He is a 6yo Giggys gelding, so will be off chasing now, and his form over hurdles would rival that of Monkfish (RPR 154), Fury Road (RPR 152) and Latest Exhibition (RPR 152).

His two runs over 2M4F and 2M5F have brought much his best ratings (RPRs of 153 & 155), and for me, if Envoi Allen goes for the Marsh then Gordon will step Easywork up the extra 3F to the RSA this year, rather than having him take on EA at the Festival again. (not sure Giggys would want him taking on EA there again, either)

I think his price of 33/1 for the RSA is a big one, and he is my pick for the race at the prices at this point in time.

[nortonscoin200]

Tiger,
I would be more keen on EASYWORK for the RSA Chase than anything at the front of the market.

After a hurdles debut win over 2M from Mount Leinster (RPR 143 on hurdles debut) - Gordon Elliotts quote was:-

23Nov19 Gowran Park (16Hy, RPR 143)
He's a grand horse who loves that soft ground. I really fancied him in a winners' bumper last year but there were two fair horses that beat him on the day. He's a nice horse with plenty of improvement in him. He settled well. He's a chaser and anything he does this year will be a bonus for next year - Gordon Elliott, trainer of Easywork

A step up to 2M4F next time out brought that infamous thrashing of odds-on fav Unexcepted by 22 lengths, with an RPR of 153.

Straight into fav for the 2M Grade 1 Hurdle at the DRF after that, which was run on lightning fast ground on Day 1, over too short a trip, and a runner up place (RPR 146) behind easy winner Asterion Forlonge.

Final run in the Ballymore brought a step back up in trip to 2M5F and his best performance to date (RPR 155) when only Envoi Allen could lower his colours, with the Two Bigs well beaten into 3rd and 4th.

He is a 6yo Giggys gelding, so will be off chasing now, and his form over hurdles would rival that of Monkfish (RPR 154), Fury Road (RPR 152) and Latest Exhibition (RPR 152).

His two runs over 2M4F and 2M5F have brought much his best ratings (RPRs of 153 & 155), and for me, if Envoi Allen goes for the Marsh then Gordon will step Easywork up the extra 3F to the RSA this year, rather than having him take on EA at the Festival again. (not sure Giggys would want him taking on EA there again, either)

I think his price of 33/1 for the RSA is a big one, and he is my pick for the race at the prices at this point in time.

Compelling case Saxon - I'm on.

[Saxon Warrior]

Compelling case Saxon - I'm on.

NC200,

Im just watching all of Easywork's videos again, and his RPR's in his first 4 hurdle races were only bettered (as a group of ratings) by Envoi Allen all season. Shishkin did better in his three runs too.

Easywork pulled a bit through the first part of the Ballymore, and was still able to pull away from The Big Getaway from the last.

I am thinking that Easywork and the Big Getaway have, at this point, at least as likely a chance in the RSA as the 3 Bartlett horses (and are 33/1 and 25/1 in the odd place c/w 10s to 16s for the Bartlett boys).

If we think that the best novice hurdlers should be among the favs for the three Novice Chases then Easywork should be close to fav for the RSA (W/O Envoi Allen).

Giggy's tend to buy staying chasing types, and I am would like to think that Easywork was a better novice hurdler than Delta Work, is from the same sire (Network), stable and owner as Delta Work and may be able to equal or better what DW did in the RSA.

[archie]

Has to be said that the DRF run was on Day 2 and it was neither lightning fast ground nor a particularly fast race.

That aside, it's sound enough logic and a decent price.

[Saxon Warrior]

Has to be said that the DRF run was on Day 2 and it was neither lightning fast ground nor a particularly fast race.

That aside, it's sound enough logic and a decent price.

Quite right Archie, I was fooled by the FAKE reported "Yielding " ground for Day 2. (amended my post accordingly)

[Saxon Warrior]

Didnt take long for my post on the chance of Easywork in the RSA to lead to a price move from 33/1 to 25/1.

Well done to all that got the price.

I still think that 25/1 represents very good value compared to the others in the market.

[Kevloaf]

Didnt take long for my post on the chance of Easywork in the RSA to lead to a price move from 33/1 to 25/1.

Well done to all that got the price.

I still think that 25/1 represents very good value compared to the others in the market.

The problem with this pattern is that it's going to discourage people from posting there 'tips' if the price disappears within an hour.




Just picking up from your reply in the related doubles thread:

I just watched back all of Easywork's 5 runs last season. he debuted in the Down Royal Bumper that Gordy farms on the first big weekend racing in Ireland (won 6 out of last 7) and won by further than Malone Road did the year before, and with a better rating.

He was prominent or led in all four of his hurdle runs, and travelled well in the jockeys hands in all four races, pulling a bit in the Ballymore, but not too much that he couldnt see out the race well, up the hill.

I was very impressed watching back the Ballymore and think it's interesting he's generally shorter for the Marsh still. It also made me wonder why the horse one of the horses that beat him, Asterion Forlonge wasn't quoted but he is now, at 33/1. Same ownership as The Big Getaway and Shishkin but interesting to see how they all progress/take to fences.