Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Istabraq]

The RSA would be the outsider if I had to price which race he runs in - the Gold Cup would be a shorter price!

Funny you should say that, have you seen his price on the fair ?
Matched at 38 yesterday...

[Nortons who]

With this news today, there are a couple of points that have crossed my mind.


1. Shishkin can become a key ante post horse for the week. Being the second race, it creates an oppourtunity to have a 4/1 winner rolling onto anything else (bar the Supreme)... That makes is easier to plan and manoeuvre through the rest of the week. It could be a case of playing catch up if it goes wrong, but the potential is certainly eye catching.

.

Kev this news re Shishkin is hardly new news, Hendo and Nico both said straight after Cheltenham that they couldn't wait to see Shishkin over fences and that he would most likely stay at 2 miles with Chantry House stepping up in trip.

However, if you think that Envoi Allen has 'loads more chance of winning the Marsh Chase than Shishkin has of winning the Arkle' why would you be risking doubles with Shishkin. Instead, if you don't rate Goshen but reckon that Epatante already has form in the book to win the CH again then her performance would only be 2 races after Shiskin, so would you not have more confidence of kicking of a range of follow on rest of week Doubles with her than Shishkin ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Funny you should say that, have you seen his price on the fair ?
Matched at 38 yesterday...

Seriously?

If he's foot perfect in his first couple of races, you could imagine people asking the question of the Gold Cup.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I honestly can't see any way in which EA runs in the RSA over fences. He is quick, the way he picked up off the bend in the Ballymore was impressive, and the intermediate trip will suit perfectly.

The RSA would be the outsider if I had to price which race he runs in - the Gold Cup would be a shorter price!

I agree the intermediate trip would seem perfect but if they are obsessed with him winning a Gold Cup we all know the RSA tends to be the best trial. Here’s how I would price it up:

Marsh 4/7
RSA 2/1
Arkle 10/1
GC 40/1

[archie]

The Allaho comparison isn't valid even though it's the same owners.

Allaho was campaigned over hurdles at 2m5f or further whereas Envoi Allen was basically campaigned mostly at 2m by a different trainer. I'd say there's basically only a tiny chance that EA goes RSA and that 9/2 for the Marsh is much more solid than 4/1 Shishkin in the Arkle although I'm not remotely tempted by either as a single price.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The Allaho comparison isn't valid even though it's the same owners.

Allaho was campaigned over hurdles at 2m5f or further whereas Envoi Allen was basically campaigned mostly at 2m by a different trainer. I'd say there's basically only a tiny chance that EA goes RSA and that 9/2 for the Marsh is much more solid than 4/1 Shishkin in the Arkle although I'm not remotely tempted by either as a single price.

No denying any of that’s Archie but the owners want a Gold Cup winner and there is no denying the RSA is the best trial. I absolutely want him in the Marsh and glad to see the positivity about that target

[Kevloaf]

I’m with you on everything except the target for EA. I’m heavily involved in Shishkin for the Arkle and pretty involved with EA for the Marsh. The fact is Hendo has name checked the Arkle and we just don’t have that with EA’s target. Also do the Alloha developments from this year not cast some doubt? As somebody who is getting stuck into the 3 AB horses for the RSA Envoi Allen rocking up there would be a kick in the balls I need to avoid somehow

Nah, the Allaho comparison does nothing for me.

He'd had a run in the Albert Bartlett (2nd)
Envoi Allen ran and won the Ballymore.


The way I see it, Elliott holds the cards.


EA is the best hurdler going novice chasing. They've already put him at the trip this season which for me rules out the Arkle. (Not that I don't think he could win it, but they'll be aware the Supreme winner is going there, and why would they want the clash).

The RSA already looks competitive based on the AB and Elliott will have other horses.




I can't really explain why I'm so confident properly, but I am just not worried at all about the target, like I wasn't this season. If I'm wrong I'll take it on the chin and everybody is in charge of their own bets.... but I'm very close to being full steam ahead on the target, I just can't see any logic behind the other options.

[Kevloaf]

Kev this news re Shishkin is hardly new news, Hendo and Nico both said straight after Cheltenham that they couldn't wait to see Shishkin over fences and that he would most likely stay at 2 miles with Chantry House stepping up in trip.

However, if you think that Envoi Allen has 'loads more chance of winning the Marsh Chase than Shishkin has of winning the Arkle' why would you be risking doubles with Shishkin. Instead, if you don't rate Goshen but reckon that Epatante already has form in the book to win the CH again then her performance would only be 2 races after Shiskin, so would you not have more confidence of kicking of a range of follow on rest of week Doubles with her than Shishkin ?

That's why I put it in italics It's not 'news' to me



...and I haven't said I don't rate Goshen once?! I've just said he's not a good value bet relative to Epatante. I also clearly stated neither are a price I'd back now.


Shishkin is potentially going to go off a short priced fav (odds on?) for the Arkle. Epatante won't go off odds on in a Champion Hurdle unless a load of horses get injured.


It's also to do with the unknowns. Shishkin has less opposition to deal with, as novice chasers are a very small group and I can already gauge where they were in the pecking order.

Epatante has juveniles, novices and returning horses to contend with, Shishkin doesn't. He just has to prove he can jump well.





Envoi Allen is superior, there isn't LOADS between Shishkin and Epatante, but I'd say Shishkin is more likely to have an easier race... whether any of value now is debatable for sure, but I am not saying what you are making out I've said.

I do think Envoi Allen has loads more chance of winning the Marsh than any horse has of winning any race bar Easysland in the Cross Country perhaps.



I'm not going to be 1000 pts on that double now though either

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Last season the money came at the start of the season for the Ballymore which with that stable does appear to be very relevant. All the early money has come for him in the Marsh but with the way prices have been cut absurdly early it is difficult to tell if that is informed money

[Kautostar]

We don’t know how strong each race will be as yet the rsa could look extremely weak come next year if the Albert Bartlett brigade turns out to be a poor renewal. Elliott has other horses for both the marsh and rsa so I wouldn’t rule anything out yet. I’d lean 70/30 in favour of the marsh at this stage

[Nortons who]

I agree the intermediate trip would seem perfect but if they are obsessed with him winning a Gold Cup we all know the RSA tends to be the best trial. Here’s how I would price it up:

Marsh 4/7
RSA 2/1
Arkle 10/1
GC 40/1

If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.

[Kevloaf]

We don’t know how strong each race will be as yet the rsa could look extremely weak come next year if the Albert Bartlett brigade turns out to be a poor renewal. Elliott has other horses for both the marsh and rsa so I wouldn’t rule anything out yet. I’d lean 70/30 in favour of the marsh at this stage

The combination required for Elliott to have a better chance of winning 2 races at the festival with EA in the RSA is much bigger than 70/30 based on their novice hurdle careers.



What possible horses will he have as the front 3 in the betting for the Marsh?
versus
What possible horses will he have as the front 3 in the betting for the RSA?


If EA is the best of them, they'll fit in around him, not the other way around.



It's just not logical to switch EA with Fury Road, or CoF? Or Easywork? Or whoever you can come up with?

[Kevloaf]

If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.

Nobody but there is a massive difference between Elliott and Bradstock and Chevely Park and The Max Partnership.


Coneygree going for the Gold Cup was because it was once in a lifetime for connections, and the age and fragility of the horse.


Envoi Allen is a dual festival winner already, I just cannot see them gambling like that with him. They have other horses they could aim at a Gold Cup too (owner and trainer!)...

I am not sure I'd back 50/1 for Envoi Allen to run in the Gold Cup. Maybe 0.1 pt for FOMO

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

If you are interested you can still get EA at 50-1 for the GC with Betfair Sportsbook. I took 2pts at these odds ages ago, just in case he proves to be so special that they decide to go for the big one in his Novice season. Coneygree did it and who's to say that EA isn't as good.

I’m offering 40/1 he turns up there

[Kautostar]

My point was more if the marsh is looking hot if say chantry house, Klassical dream etc look decent and the rsa looks very weak it could look the easier option to go down the rsa route for a penalty kick.

Easywork, Andy dufresne, column of fire could go to the marsh and envoi rsa if cof/fury road flops or gets injured.

Just playing devils advocate here as I think envoi will go the marsh