Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[EnvoyAllen]

How confident are we Envoi is aiming for the marsh? That PTP is 3 miles. Is anyone bullish on the RSA for envoi 2021?

Personally ive made the call on the marsh but dont want to get too carried away and assume that is definitely his target. (and this is what im starting to do)

I’d be pretty confident he’d go Marsh. Commentators suggested that would be the route the day before he even won the Ballymore. I would find it staggering they’d drop him in distance for the Arkle next year, only to ‘re train’ him for a tilt at the Gold Cup in 2022 and potentially 2023 in his peak years of 8 and 9. 5 targets have potentially been mooted, but in reality, I’d be extremely surprised if it’s not the Marsh, and a chance maybe at the RSA if they want to flog him through the winter over 3 mile distances. Champion Hurdle?? Vaguely possible - but they knew the festival just gone with that field was their best chance there.
Two reasonably trusted commentators said Envoi for the Marsh and Shishkin will be the Arkle 2021 winner the day before this years festival even started. The proof of their judgment followed soon after. 4/1 even now has the potential to be a sound investment for both.

[billymag]

Down to some big priced (or unfancied) horses from memory?


I think the "Tizzard Aintree" factor is overbet as well now as it's well highlighted over the last few years...

Small data samples though (and no sample this year!)

Your right about small sample size so always the danger when punting these angles but in 2019:

Out of 9 runners

6 horses unplaced

Lostintranslation winner - 3/1 sp
Reserve Tank winner - 20/1 sp

Major malarky - second 11/2 sp

[Kevloaf]

Your right about small sample size so always the danger when punting these angles but in 2019:

Out of 9 runners

6 horses unplaced

Lostintranslation winner - 3/1 sp
Reserve Tank winner - 20/1 sp

Major malarky - second 11/2 sp

Yeah, that 20/1 in a fairly small field race skews it though doesn't it.

I didn't see a single soul tip Reserve Tank pre race (on here, or the racing publications) ... 9 runners, he was 7th in the betting.

I certainly wouldn't back Tizzard horses blind. 2 from 9 is a decent strike rate but it's hardly a HUGE edge.

2 wins from 9 win bets or 2 wind and 1 place from effectively 18 bets?


It's just a bit if a cliche to say nowadays is how I feel about it.

[billymag]

Fair enough, Im not sure id say its a cliche. Looks a pretty solid angle on recent past results to me, I accept the cat is out the bag but with him not being as fashionable as other trainers it looks worth considering:

2018 he had a few more runners so worth noting the consistent win place strike rate:

16 runners of which 9 were unplaced

Placed horses at 11/2, 14/1, 11/4, 4/1
Winners at 14/1 11/4.

Like a lot of these angles all so worth mentioning that youll likely do better than sp with BOG.
Looks enough in it for me to continue with it, especially if he disappointed slightly at Cheltenham.

[Faugheen_Machine]

There was a year where CT could do no wrong at Aintree (at a guess it was 2017). He must have had 5 winners.

*Just checked and it was 3 winners, all on the Friday.

[Nwfb89]

There was a year where CT could do no wrong at Aintree (at a guess it was 2017). He must have had 5 winners.

*Just checked and it was 3 winners, all on the Friday.

He had a couple on the Saturday that year aswell mate finians oscar and sizing coldeco

[Kevloaf]

Fair enough, Im not sure id say its a cliche. Looks a pretty solid angle on recent past results to me, I accept the cat is out the bag but with him not being as fashionable as other trainers it looks worth considering:

2018 he had a few more runners so worth noting the consistent win place strike rate:

16 runners of which 9 were unplaced

Placed horses at 11/2, 14/1, 11/4, 4/1
Winners at 14/1 11/4.

Like a lot of these angles all so worth mentioning that youll likely do better than sp with BOG.
Looks enough in it for me to continue with it, especially if he disappointed slightly at Cheltenham.

Just backing a trainer blind as a system just makes no appeal for me I suppose.

Like backing Weld at Galway was.

Backing a trainer who under performed to do better is fine if it's compensated in the prices, but that's hard to gauge.

[Ray]

They seem to think The Big Breakaway is going to get alot better i personally dont see it i think they are trying to justify the big price!

[Saxon Warrior]

They seem to think The Big Breakaway is going to get alot better i personally dont see it i think they are trying to justify the big price!

Yes, theres often a lot of hot-air and bullsh!t from that stable.

[billymag]

At 33/1 for the RSA he looks one of the better Antepost bets at this stage, he ran very respectably in Ballymore and Im happy to get him in my RSA book at this stage. I agree about the hot-air from the stable but hes shown enough in his novice hurdling runs to suggest that hes worth backing for me.

[ComplyOrDie]

As per my diary post:

Backed Sporting John for the Marsh at 40/1 (boosted to 44/1), which I think is a bit of an insult to the horse, but welcome in relation to usual prices of ante post horses. We don't know why he came back distressed from the Ballymore yet, but I do know he had less than a month from his previous race (where he was readily ridden) to then take up a G1 novice hurdle. I think good horses can get away with a short amount of time between races in lower grade company, but to do it at the very top level is difficult, so I can and will take that as a valid reason.

One largely positive note is how his PTP win, given a fairly high RPR of 94, has worked out. The 3rd, 4th and 5th all won on their next starts, the 2nd has not run since. That is pretty useful, and also gives us a small insight that Sporting John will indeed take to fences.

He clearly had plenty of ability pre-festival (went off 5/1 for the Ballymore), and one run has to be forgiven, whatever the reasons, couple with his PTP performance, he shouldn't be a 40/1 shot IMO.

Thoughts appreciate.

[Craigy14]

The couple of reasons I can only see why he is so big is A) the performance at Cheltenham and B) the doubt that whatever went wrong with him could happen again.

Saying that, given there was an update from Hobbs to say he was absolutely fine within himself 2 days later and they couldn’t find anything to highlight why he performed so poorly, is very strange.

I wouldn’t argue with the price seems very fair given we know he can jump a fence, we know he is better than he showed at Cheltenham.

[Hardy Eustace]

As per my diary post:

Backed Sporting John for the Marsh at 40/1 (boosted to 44/1), which I think is a bit of an insult to the horse, but welcome in relation to usual prices of ante post horses. We don't know why he came back distressed from the Ballymore yet, but I do know he had less than a month from his previous race (where he was readily ridden) to then take up a G1 novice hurdle. I think good horses can get away with a short amount of time between races in lower grade company, but to do it at the very top level is difficult, so I can and will take that as a valid reason.

One largely positive note is how his PTP win, given a fairly high RPR of 94, has worked out. The 3rd, 4th and 5th all won on their next starts, the 2nd has not run since. That is pretty useful, and also gives us a small insight that Sporting John will indeed take to fences.

He clearly had plenty of ability pre-festival (went off 5/1 for the Ballymore), and one run has to be forgiven, whatever the reasons, couple with his PTP performance, he shouldn't be a 40/1 shot IMO.

Thoughts appreciate.

I have backed Sporting John myself for the Marsh and am thinking of topping up again. Agree he shouldn't be 40/1 and happy to forgive the Cheltenham run at that price. The only thing that is stopping me at the moment on topping up is whether they drop him in trip for the arkle. They left the decision quite late this year supreme/ballymore and Chantry House (who is another i like) makes accurately predicting his target a bit harder as from what I can gather Hendo is keen to step him up in trip. Hills go 25s which can be boosted for any race that may be the way I go.

Great piece on Bob Olinger yesterday btw!

[ComplyOrDie]

I have backed Sporting John myself for the Marsh and am thinking of topping up again. Agree he shouldn't be 40/1 and happy to forgive the Cheltenham run at that price. The only thing that is stopping me at the moment on topping up is whether they drop him in trip for the arkle. They left the decision quite late this year supreme/ballymore and Chantry House (who is another i like) makes accurately predicting his target a bit harder as from what I can gather Hendo is keen to step him up in trip. Hills go 25s which can be boosted for any race that may be the way I go.

Great piece on Bob Olinger yesterday btw!

Thanks HE, it was only a small piece, for my own use as much as everyone elses

I have a little bit about Chantry House I'll stick up in the coming weeks (need to get some money down first), but yeah he is definitely a potential fly in the ointment scenario for Sporting John in the Marsh, although different trainers.

[YoungHustler]

As per my diary post:

Backed Sporting John for the Marsh at 40/1 (boosted to 44/1), which I think is a bit of an insult to the horse, but welcome in relation to usual prices of ante post horses. We don't know why he came back distressed from the Ballymore yet, but I do know he had less than a month from his previous race (where he was readily ridden) to then take up a G1 novice hurdle. I think good horses can get away with a short amount of time between races in lower grade company, but to do it at the very top level is difficult, so I can and will take that as a valid reason.

One largely positive note is how his PTP win, given a fairly high RPR of 94, has worked out. The 3rd, 4th and 5th all won on their next starts, the 2nd has not run since. That is pretty useful, and also gives us a small insight that Sporting John will indeed take to fences.

He clearly had plenty of ability pre-festival (went off 5/1 for the Ballymore), and one run has to be forgiven, whatever the reasons, couple with his PTP performance, he shouldn't be a 40/1 shot IMO.

Thoughts appreciate.

I am a big fan of Sporting John too and was really looking forward to seeing him race against EA in the Ballymore but he just wasn't right and I'm happy to put a line through that race.
Issue for me is which race will he be targeted at as I think Chantry is very likely to be aimed at the Marsh. The RSA is looking really hot so could it be the Arkle? I was planning on waiting until the Autumn before committing as PP were originally at 50s for the Marsh(which I didn't take) but now may just take the any race 25s with Hills.