Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

"A better race with a stronger gallop would suit better. He will have no trouble stepping up in trip when the time comes and might get a Kerry National entry." @gelliott_racing on 2/9 favourite Galvin @KillarneyRaces

That would certainly qualify him for the NHC. Looking good .

[Saxon Warrior]

"A better race with a stronger gallop would suit better. He will have no trouble stepping up in trip when the time comes and might get a Kerry National entry." @gelliott_racing on 2/9 favourite Galvin @KillarneyRaces

The Kerry National is run for a big prize in the middle of a seven day Festival, over 3 miles, usually on the Wednesday which is on the same day as the opening day of the Doncaster St Leger Festival.

[Kevloaf]

First time post on the Cheltenham thread, so go easy...

What are the thoughts on Elixir D,Ainay’s target race? Having read through the thread there is not much mention of this horse bar the last couple of posts. Having studied the Arkle race last night for a few hours and rewatched the Supreme race last year I think Elixir D’Ainay is the forgotten horse a bit here and great E/W value with cash out available @ 33/1.

Reasons:

Willie / Nicky have won 7 of the last 10 renewals. We all know Shishkin is the front runner here for Nicky.

Was running well when taken out in the Supreme by AF.

We have established that running over further distance is no bad thing when contesting the Arkle, think Lobos pointed this out in an earlier post. (take on board this is not the case when a Superstar is in the field, I.e Altior, Douvan, SS and yes we may have Shishkin this year)

Has graded form behind Envoi Allen, 3 lengths back in Lawlor’s Novice Hurdle.

Best price 33/1 with cash out available, price will only shorten as the season gets going.

Can lock in a profit and cash out if the Marsh / RSA looks the more likely route.

To me the Arkle looks light compared to the potential packed into the RSA for example and I feel Elixir has brilliant place claims at worse in this, IF turning up here. ( A Spectre E/W trixie coming on I feel with Put the Kettle On (CC) & Thyme Hill (S))

If Shishkin bombs during the season Arkle is wide open in my view.

Granted I agree Shishkin is the potential superstar here, but feel Elixir D’Ainary is the forgotten horse in the market in my view.

I like the Embittered angle someone mentioned on here, JOB has a decent record in past few years in this race and always has one or two runners in this. 50/1 with cash out on bet365 had to get some of that.

The 4 horses in my book / shortlist for the Arkle are Shishkin, Captain Guinness, Elixir D’Ainary & Embittered.

I have Shishkin covered in roll ups with 4pts at 50/1 and Captain Guinness at 20/1 in doubles / trebles E/W (3pts outlay) (Spectre style as this has been my approach for the past 10 festivals and has been the most profitable angle for me, all be it this is my first time playing antepost properly this year so will be interesting to see how I fair) Have 0.5pts ew on Embittered and that is my Arkle book to date which I am happy with. (8pts total outlay)

Hoping to add Elixir D’Ainary in a few doubles / trebles E/W but would like the views / thoughts from the forum on the Arkle as the most likely target before I commit. Not a fan of the TWAR market (16/1 to short in my view) prefer cash out option with doubles / trebles. (sorry Lobos)

Longtime lurker and the knowledge / expertise on here is from another planet, well done to all who contribute faithfully with all the different angles, it has been a joy to read and hopefully I can add the odd nugget of insight along the way.

Happy to be shot down in any of the above comments.(Go easy tho! )

I feel like I have definitely mentioned Elixir D'ainay but it could be anywhere over the last 4 months - probably in my diary
I've weighted my bets more towards the Arkle, and he's a 96.3 point winner in that race for me at the moment.

Probably worth you starting your diary off if you have specific questions about what you should be doing so we don't 'clog up' the general chatter threads....

Generally though, I agree with a lot of what you've said, and I did select Elixir D'ainay as my "most likely winner" of the Arkle, which may be a bit of hyperbole as Shishkin is the one to beat as he did actually get the job done in the Supreme, I feel it's not that hard to see Elixir D'ainay as Willie Mullins' first string in the race and that makes him a single figure chance at least.


Still, it's early days and pre-season and ultimately how 2 mile novice chasers get from A to B will usurp a lot of these initial thoughts.

Also, Elixir D'ainay could end up in a handicap hurdle, so whilst I also haven't and won't be taking TWAR, I can definitely see the appeal if you have to back him this early.

[Kevloaf]

That would certainly qualify him for the NHC. Looking good .

The Kerry National is run for a big prize in the middle of a seven day Festival, over 3 miles, usually on the Wednesday which is on the same day as the opening day of the Doncaster St Leger Festival.

I wonder in the NH Chase is a long term plan, or whether they're striking while the iron is hot?

He has to be well handicapped (or at least they seem fairly confident he is).


Must be a fairly unique set of circumstances where a horse is good enough to win a National and end up in a novice handicap chase.

Seems too good to be true

[Lobos]

I wonder in the NH Chase is a long term plan, or whether they're striking while the iron is hot?

He has to be well handicapped (or at least they seem fairly confident he is).


Must be a fairly unique set of circumstances where a horse is good enough to win a National and end up in a novice handicap chase.

Seems too good to be true

It does doesn't it but the mere fact that the conditions of the NHC allows a horse like Galvin to make Hay while the sun shines and potentially win a £200,000 National along the way, makes that festival race very appealing indeed rather than taking on the likes of Envoi and Monkfish.

[Lobos]

Attaglance, good post re Elixr. Kev is very sweet on him for the Arkle as well and I can see why. Hendo, Mullins and Broomhead have dominated the Arkle in the last Decade . Shiskin for Henderson, Captain Guinness for Broomhead both look nailed on for the Arkle. Looking down the AP list Elixr does look the obvious one for Mullins (Big question mark re Klassical Dream) and 33/1 would turn out to be a sensational price should he end up going the 2 mile route. I've backed him TWAR but at the price I'm getting on board for the Arkle as well.

[Attaglance]

I feel like I have definitely mentioned Elixir D'ainay but it could be anywhere over the last 4 months - probably in my diary
I've weighted my bets more towards the Arkle, and he's a 96.3 point winner in that race for me at the moment.

Probably worth you starting your diary off if you have specific questions about what you should be doing so we don't 'clog up' the general chatter threads....

Generally though, I agree with a lot of what you've said, and I did select Elixir D'ainay as my "most likely winner" of the Arkle, which may be a bit of hyperbole as Shishkin is the one to beat as he did actually get the job done in the Supreme, I feel it's not that hard to see Elixir D'ainay as Willie Mullins' first string in the race and that makes him a single figure chance at least.


Still, it's early days and pre-season and ultimately how 2 mile novice chasers get from A to B will usurp a lot of these initial thoughts.

Also, Elixir D'ainay could end up in a handicap hurdle, so whilst I also haven't and won't be taking TWAR, I can definitely see the appeal if you have to back him this early.

Sorry Kevloaf, must of missed this, will take a look through your diary.

Yep hope to get a diary going when I get a chance.

Interesting to hear you have Elixir D’Ainay as your “most likely winner”. I agree with Elixir D’Ainay being Mullins first string for this, I can’t see a more obvious horse from his yard at the minute. Obviously as the season gets under way things may well change, but at this moment in time I think 33/1 is a great shout with cash out.

I am with the majority on here, believing Shiskin is a superstar in waiting and the 4/1 could look great value when he goes off 1/4 like Altior did in his Arkle year.

TWAR market not for me, but can understand why people like this market. Cash out and the exchanges for me.

[Saxon Warrior]

Galvin did seem to jump a bit cork-screwy at some of the fences yesterday, with his hind legs swinging over to the right to get over the jumps.

It didn't stop him beating a moderate opponent, and it may not stop him reaching the heady heights of a Graded win at the Festival, but I will be watching the Kerry National with that in mind to see if it irons itself out in a bigger field at a stronger pace.

[Attaglance]

Attaglance, good post re Elixr. Kev is very sweet on him for the Arkle as well and I can see why. Hendo, Mullins and Broomhead have dominated the Arkle in the last Decade . Shiskin for Henderson, Captain Guinness for Broomhead both look nailed on for the Arkle. Looking down the AP list Elixr does look the obvious one for Mullins (Big question mark re Klassical Dream) and 33/1 would turn out to be a sensational price should he end up going the 2 mile route. I've backed him TWAR but at the price I'm getting on board for the Arkle as well.

Yep I agree with the 3 trainers you have mentioned and I would add in JOB to keep an eye on, can’t see the winner not coming from these 4 trainers and the 4 horses I have covered so far are all from these yards.

Glad to hear you are on board the Elixir ship for the Arkle.

I understand the TWAR angle but at 16/1 compared to 33/1, it’s a no brainier for me and especially if you have the cash out option. I feel you would be very unlucky not to get out with a profit if it looked Elixir was heading elsewhere.

[Lobos]

Since 2010 Mullins, Henderson, HD Bromhead and Joseph O'Brien have filled the first 2 places in the Arkle 15 times.

[Attaglance]

Some record, I don’t know why anyone would look anywhere else apart from these 4 trainers for the Arkle.

To add more on Elixir D’Ainary, looking at the last 10 renewals Willie has a 100% strike rate with 6 / 7 year old French bred horses. He has won 4 of the last 6 runnings with all 4 winners being French bred and aged 6 or 7.

3 of the 4 winners all had won in France before coming across. Elixir won @ 11/1 in France before coming to Willie.

As a cover bet for Shiskin in the Arkle I don’t believe you will get a better alternative @ 33/1. The price is staggering IMO given the connections & running a blinder until brought down in the Supreme IMO. Firmly believe the Supreme crop this year could well be a special bunch with more success over the coming years.

Fully appreciate we don’t know if 2 miles is the route at the minute, but with cash out I can’t see a negative at all!

I have just topped up again with 4pts E/W to add to the doubles and trebles I have on the go.

[RufusFlynn]

Having watched Day 1 back over the weekend, I would agree, he seemed to be travelling extremely well when brought down.

He was also Ruby's selection for the race - so definitley seems overpriced.

[nortonscoin200]

Some record, I don’t know why anyone would look anywhere else apart from these 4 trainers for the Arkle.

To add more on Elixir D’Ainary, looking at the last 10 renewals Willie has a 100% strike rate with 6 / 7 year old French bred horses. He has won 4 of the last 6 runnings with all 4 winners being French bred and aged 6 or 7.

3 of the 4 winners all had won in France before coming across. Elixir won @ 11/1 in France before coming to Willie.

As a cover bet for Shiskin in the Arkle I don’t believe you will get a better alternative @ 33/1. The price is staggering IMO given the connections & running a blinder until brought down in the Supreme IMO. Firmly believe the Supreme crop this year could well be a special bunch with more success over the coming years.

Fully appreciate we don’t know if 2 miles is the route at the minute, but with cash out I can’t see a negative at all!

I have just topped up again with 4pts E/W to add to the doubles and trebles I have on the go.

Good shout Attaglance - I'm on board.

[Arkle]

Elixir was going well but I have my doubts he would of seen out the finish imo I think he would of faded

[Saxon Warrior]

Elixir Dainay is a decent graded novice hurdler, and if he goes chasing this autumn it’s possible he could improve as a novice chaser on his hurdling figures of official rating 149, RPR 151.

The Arkle winners are usually rated RPR 165 or higher, so he has at least a stone to find, which is possible, and at 33/1 it’s a reasonable price.

He doesn’t attract me at this point, as he doesn’t stand out above the others with a similar hurdles rating, maybe I need to do a bit more video and form study to see which horse below Shishkin in the Arkle market can tempt me into a stronger opinion on them, for the race.