Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

I like Ontheropes for the NHC for Mullins, surely looks his runner.

Unless he runs something in the same race Carefully Selected qualified in at the end of Jan, at Naas.

Saxon Warrior may be best to tell if this card is still happening this season? 3m grade 3 novice chase it was.

Sunday 31st January 2021
Naas
Grade 3, 3M Chase
Won by Carefully Selected last year

[Saxon Warrior]

Martin Brassil on Longhouse Poet- “He’s a horse that we always thought would need a trip & he handles the ground. He had the experience from his few runs over fences & he was fit. He’s not a Grade 1 horse so we may look at novice handicaps in the spring over an extended trip.”

https://twitter.com/IrishRacing365/s...28367845421056

Not sure how many Novice Handicap Chases there are in Ireland for horses rated mid-140's.
I will check, bet its not many.

Update:
I have checked, there are 4 Grade B Novice Handicap Chases in Ireland without a limited weight band mentioned.

Only one of those is over as far as 3M.
Its on 13th March, 3M and is an EBF Series Final

Not sure he would qualify for this unless he ran in an EBF qualifier of some sort.

[PresentingPercy]

Not sure how many Novice Handicap Chases there are in Ireland for horses rated mid-140's.
I will check, bet its not many.

Kim Muir seems the likely festival race based on his quotes, assuming he can get in below 145. Run Wild Fred the big takeaway from that race just now, ran him wide all the way around and 'didn't find much' coming into the home straight when looking likely the winner. Still 33s with WH for Kim Muir, can be boosted to 36s

[charlie]

Kim Muir seems the likely festival race based on his quotes, assuming he can get in below 145. Run Wild Fred the big takeaway from that race just now, ran him wide all the way around and 'didn't find much' coming into the home straight when looking likely the winner. Still 33s with WH for Kim Muir, can be boosted to 36s

The winner is not the big takeaway from the race?

[PresentingPercy]

The winner is not the big takeaway from the race?

If people are excited about the winner and the prospect of him going to NHC or Kim Muir, they should also be excited about the second placed horse when they watch the race back in full is all I'm pointing out. Given the trainer, owners and current h'cap mark of RWF (ran off levels today with LP), it points to a well placed candidate for the Kim Muir if he were to go there.

[FinalFurlong91]

That win probably takes him out of the Kim Muir, if he was 139 Irish rated before he won.

Yes that was my thinking too

[Craigy14]

Sunday 31st January 2021
Naas
Grade 3, 3M Chase
Won by Carefully Selected last year

That’ll be the one SW cheers

Will keep an eye upon entries.

[Saxon Warrior]

If people are excited about the winner and the prospect of him going to NHC or Kim Muir, they should also be excited about the second placed horse when they watch the race back in full is all I'm pointing out. Given the trainer, owners and current h'cap mark of RWF (ran off levels today with LP), it points to a well placed candidate for the Kim Muir if he were to go there.

Run Wild Fred has a Novice Hurdle Official Rating of 144 for winning a Grade 3 in February, which the BHA handicapper would consider when awarding a Chase rating in their Novice season.

Dallas Des Pictons and Chosen Mate have been rated too highly for their hoped for Chase targets in their novice seasons recently due to their high hurdles ratings.
(Chosen Mate was good enough to win the Grand Annual, instead, after being awarded 147 by the BHA and missing the Novice Handicap Chase rating ceiling.)

Hopefully RWF will earn a rating to get into the Kim Muir if that’s the plan.

If I planned the next move, it would be a quiet run back over hurdles, to maybe clip that hurdles rating down.

Blinkers looked to have improved him today, from previous runs.

[charlie]

Wasn’t unfancied for the Ballymore last season, has been plenty tried at 16-20f are you thinking he’s always been a stayer in the making and keeping the horse to shorter trips is an elaborate plan ?
Perhaps the Kim Muir if that’s the case ?

I've added Longhouse Poet @ 33/1 for the NHC. He has a really interesting profile IMO.

He's by Yeats so will stay all day. I think he'll be seen to even better effect over further than 3m and I love how neat his jumping was today. He made what probably should have been a race ending mistake at the last losing all momentum, but quickly picked up and stayed on strongly. That was the sign of a horse enjoying going further and concur 100% with MB that extended trips will be his bag.

I thought Martin's comments post race were very interesting indeed. Definitively stating 'he's not a grade 1 horse' might sound like a negative, but I think he'd shown them enough for him to take his place in those races and it tells me they still think he is very very good. He's beaten Monkfish, Column Of Fire, Fury Road and Elixir D'ainay on the flat and over hurdles, but I think he looks a very smart chaser.

Martin Brassil only has a handful of horses, but he's a very good trainer. Were LP trained by Mullins or Gordon I'm convinced he'd be half the price and some.

Whats not to like? Qualified, tick. Bred to stay 4 miles, tick. Neat jumper, tick. Cheltenham experience, tick. Nice big price of 33/1, tick.

I have added him Any Race @ 22/1 to cover other options, but 33/1 EW NHC seems like a good bet for me at this stage.

[Bigfish]

I've added Longhouse Poet @ 33/1 for the NHC. He has a really interesting profile IMO.

He's by Yeats so will stay all day. I think he'll be seen to even better effect over further than 3m and I love how neat his jumping was today. He made what probably should have been a race ending mistake at the last losing all momentum, but quickly picked up and stayed on strongly. That was the sign of a horse enjoying going further and concur 100% with MB that extended trips will be his bag.

I thought Martin's comments post race were very interesting indeed. Definitively stating 'he's not a grade 1 horse' might sound like a negative, but I think he'd shown them enough for him to take his place in those races and it tells me they still think he is very very good. He's beaten Monkfish, Column Of Fire, Fury Road and Elixir D'ainay on the flat and over hurdles, but I think he looks a very smart chaser.

Martin Brassil only has a handful of horses, but he's a very good trainer. Were LP trained by Mullins or Gordon I'm convinced he'd be half the price and some.

Whats not to like? Qualified, tick. Bred to stay 4 miles, tick. Neat jumper, tick. Cheltenham experience, tick. Nice big price of 33/1, tick.

I have added him Any Race @ 22/1 to cover other options, but 33/1 EW NHC seems like a good bet for me at this stage.

I cant not agree. I backed him today. This is a candidate for NHC in my book.

[jack1092]

On him too. "Not a grade 1 horse" is perfect for this. Ravenhill, Le Breuil etc. Hopefully JP doesn't have a big runner and he gets Derek!

[The King Pimm]

I’ve been informed by a credible source that Elixir D’Ainey is out for the season. If anyone is able to substantiate this information as I’ve had it passed on to me by a third party.

[Ballybeen]

I’ve been informed by a credible source that Elixir D’Ainey is out for the season. If anyone is able to substantiate this information as I’ve had it passed on to me by a third party.

Funny he’s one I had backed at 50/1 but was cleaning up some of my cash out bets last night and cashed him out. I read he had a setback a while ago but my thinking was they are running out of time now to have him an arkle contender. I will look again at the lesser price if we see any signs of seeing him.

[Can't Catch Me]

Having read Nolan's comments re LE, he seems very loathe to take Monkfish on again to me. Think he would be very tough to beat in the NH Chase. Annoyed as I backed him very early doors then cashed out, but have added again at 12/1

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Having read Nolan's comments re LE, he seems very loathe to take Monkfish on again to me. Think he would be very tough to beat in the NH Chase. Annoyed as I backed him very early doors then cashed out, but have added again at 12/1

I assume you are referring to these comments:

Mullins confirmed the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown in early February as the likely next target for Monkfish – and Nolan is in no rush to decide whether to let Latest Exhibition take him on once more before a return to Prestbury Park in March.

“We’ll have a little chat with the lads (owners) and see what our options are,” the trainer added.

“It would be a fair battle to try and beat Monkfish again, with Cheltenham in mind, but we’ll certainly enter him and see what we think is the best thing to do.

“He’ll be entered in all the novice chases in Cheltenham bar the Arkle. You’ve got the RSA and the Marsh Novices’ Chase – and the National Hunt Chase is an option, too.

“We won’t rule out anything yet.”

I read that as not wanting to take Monkfish on again before the Festival and while he clearly wants to keep options open in March I’ll be surprised if he ends up in any other race than the RSA.