Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[The King Pimm]

I’m glad Latest Exhibition put in a much better performance today, I was really hoping his last run in heavy was a one off blip and after today as long as it’s not too soft at Cheltenham he’ll chase Monkfish home but make him work for a victory

[jono]

Just having another look at the Arkle and notably Mullins potential runners...

In the key Arkle trial at Leopardstown Franco de Port (20/1) won for Mullins. Who post race said

“He could stick at that trip, but you’d obviously look at a longer trip for him, maybe two and a half.

“I’d imagine the Dublin Racing Festival will be the plan, we’ll see how he comes out of this race today.”

He'll deservedly get his chance to follow up in February but he surely took advantage in a fairly weak renewal of the race?
Blackbow (33/1) fell early on so couldn't be judged. Again you'd think he'll have another go.

Following the late withdrawal of Klassical Dream (20/1) yesterday, with Mullins stating:

We had to pull Klassical Dream out of the beginners’ chase. I’m hoping it’s just a muscle problem and nothing too serious

It may well be a race against time to get him up to speed. As per Elixir D'Ainay (25/1)
(i'd still very very interested if they could get him back in time for a handicap hurdle at the festival off 149)

Looking at the fixtures for 2 mile Beginners chases, they'd look to have 2 options for a run in January (unless they went straight into a novice chase) which are

Saturday 16th January
2m1 - Fairyhouse (the race won by Annamix last season)

Thursday 28th January
2m - Gowran Park (the race won by Cilaos Emery in 2019)

Or stepping up in trip

Saturday 30th January
2m5 -Fairyhouse (the race won by Allaho last season)

Not ideal or too many options but still gives them a chance. CE was likely to have had the 1 run and onto the festival before his setback and Allaho, albeit with 1 run beforehand went into the RSA off the back of a beginners chase. It would of course mean the DRF trial is likely off the agenda for any Mullins horse who is yet to run.
I was gutted to see Klassical Dream pulled the other day. I had expected a win and then onto the DRF, but that now is surely not going to happen.

Unexcepted (16/1) so far has been the pick of the Mullins 2 milers. But a "small" setback ruled him out this past week. He should be back in the New Year. When that is i'm not sure, has it been stating?? But if only minor, the race on

Sunday 10th January
2m - Naas (the race won by Cash Back last season)

Could come into play. Energumene (20/1) was the antepost favourite for the Leopardstown race, only to be pulled out. No mention of a setback, it could have been a need for more give in the ground or deciding not to drop back to 2 miles. But it's an option for him too and clearly with that Leopardstown entry, 2 miles is a consideration.

It's also been earmarked for Captain Guinness (20/1) and if they both/all turned up, it would be the most competitive match up of the season so far for the Irish 2 milers. With the race hopefully also having another of a gap after to take in the DRF as a final prep. However I do wonder if HdB would consider sending CG straight to the festival afterwards. He only had 2 runs prior to the Supreme. And he's made note of how hard a race Notebook had there before the Arkle. Just a thought...

All in all i'm still at a bit of a loss with how Mullins will go into the Arkle in March...
I went into the race on the 26th thinking it would look a fair bit different come February and the DRF and it wasn't a true showing of the Irish novices (I expected both Klassical Dream and Captain Guinness to be there and top 2 in the betting)
I wonder if that'll now be the case?

Essentially the Mullins ride(s) are still up in the air, with the shortest price being 16/1.

Franco de Port won first the key trial but looks very much 2nd/3rd string if the 'big hitters' were to line up and if so probably go up in trip
Blackbow fell in said race, unknown where he stands but should get another shot,
Klassical Dream, Elixir D'Ainay (my original 2 hopes) have had setbacks and may struggle to make it,
Unexcepted another with a setback,
Energumene missed Christmas

[Istabraq]

jono
Franco du Port was one of the most talked up horses of last season's festival, he had countless entries and several judges said he’d win whatever race he went to, he disappointed in the Coral Cup but the talk/confidence was noted, of course I missed him at 8/1 the other day but he has to be of interest wherever he lands this season...

[Kevloaf]

Is it going to be a year like Royal Caviar versus Altior then..... not worth worrying about anymore?

[Bigfish]

I noted the utter disappointment with which the jock spoke re the falls of Blackbow and Asterion Forlonge. I think these two are the main contenders for Willie and will be top notch chasers.

[jono]

jono
Franco du Port was one of the most talked up horses of last season's festival, he had countless entries and several judges said he’d win whatever race he went to, he disappointed in the Coral Cup but the talk/confidence was noted, of course I missed him at 8/1 the other day but he has to be of interest wherever he lands this season...

Didn't realise that Ista. I remember looking into him for the Coral Cup but wasn't aware of the confidence behind him. Probably need to give him more credit then and perhaps one to take a little more seriously perhaps.

[Lobos]

The 3 novice hurdle winners from last time to win the 3 novice chases next time looks rock solid right now.

Very good point. Not even thought of that. Would have made a beautiful early season treble. Anyone done it on here ???? Never happened I my time I don't think.

[ryanh97]

Very good point. Not even thought of that. Would have made a beautiful early season treble. Anyone done it on here ????

Unfortunately not, but would be looking at what... 420/1+?

[FinalFurlong91]

Very good point. Not even thought of that. Would have made a beautiful early season treble. Anyone done it on here ???? Never happened I my time I don't think.

Closest i have is monkfish, envoi and paisley in a trixie from last march

[Lobos]

I’m glad Latest Exhibition put in a much better performance today, I was really hoping his last run in heavy was a one off blip and after today as long as it’s not too soft at Cheltenham he’ll chase Monkfish home but make him work for a victory

LE ran a great race today. Really enjoyed that head to head.

[FinalFurlong91]

Having backed him for the NHC I was hoping he'd lose by a bit further

Hes far too good to run in that it seems

[Lobos]

Closest i have is monkfish, envoi and paisley in a trixie from last march

Not to be sniffed at !! Cracking stuff.

[FinalFurlong91]

Not to be sniffed at !! Cracking stuff.

Most of my other bets have taken a battering over the last few days so at least nice to have a few still live

Good job most of my ante post betting is done with whatever free bets I can get

[Lobos]

The 3 novice hurdle winners from last time to win the 3 novice chases next time looks rock solid right now.

I've found someone who's done the early season Trixie...............

5/1 , 6/1 and 12/1


Take a bow Spectre.

[isitmarchyet]

Very good point. Not even thought of that. Would have made a beautiful early season treble. Anyone done it on here ???? Never happened I my time I don't think.

Feels like one of those bets someone could have done on here. Hope they have!

Best I've got is Envoi/Monkfish double and Envoi/Shishkin double from back in the summer. Just about the only multiples I have that look half decent at this point, but not getting too excited at this point, haha.