Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[charlie]

I've noted this on here more than a couple of times. I wouldn't have said he was about to hand Monkfish a beating but he was ahead at the time of unseating, though Monkfish looked to finish the race well.

It was something I picked up on early so managed to get some 65's and 60's on the exchanges for Chantry House in the RSA. Tried getting bigger but couldn't get matched.

Yeh I haven't seen it, just repeating what someone said on twitter which is obviously incredibly reliable for accuracy!

And there was me happy with 40's. Tip my hat to you sir.

[kinloch brae]

The point that Monkfish won was more than two and a half years ago. Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it. Chantry House was two lengths up when making a complete horlicks of the third last. Monkfish looked very raw in winning by less than a length from a horse who has since shown next to nothing. Of course the next three home have turned out to be above average.

I think Chantry House is going up in trip because Henderson knows what he did at the shorter trip wins nothing. For me he is clutching at straws.

[FinalFurlong91]

Given how enormous monkfish is surely he was a shell of a horse at that age

[charlie]

The point that Monkfish won was more than two and a half years ago. Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it. Chantry House was two lengths up when making a complete horlicks of the third last. Monkfish looked very raw in winning by less than a length from a horse who has since shown next to nothing. Of course the next three home have turned out to be above average.

I think Chantry House is going up in trip because Henderson knows what he did at the shorter trip wins nothing. For me he is clutching at straws.

He’s raced once over fences and won easily so ‘clutching at straws’ seems premature. The P2P comment was just a brief observation, nothing more.

[RufusFlynn]

Apologies, haven't had a chance to catch up with the thread so may have already been cover. just caught up with the weekend racing last night:

The Big Breakaway vs The Big Getaway

Both ran at the weekend - both odds on - both beaten. The former cut to 12/1 for the RSA & 16/1 for the NHC. The latter pushed to 33/1 RSA & 20/1 NHC.

To me TBB looked far more novicey & distracted during his race, made mistakes and was beaten by a horse that is unlikely to be involved in any race at the festival.

TBG looks as though he jumped reasonably but obviously faded fast late on and was beaten by two horses with chase experience/race fitness. He was also beaten at odds on on his hurdle debut so no doubt he will improve as the season progresses. he was clear of TBB in the Ballymore and I can't see that this would be reversed next year. The yard has said he is an out and out stayer so presumably the trip was also short of his optimum.

I would far rather back a horse for the festival thinking Willie Mullins can improve him than Colin Tizzard. Undoubtedly they would both need to improve to feature but personally I don't get the price difference. Strongly felt TBG would be a major player in the RSA so will go in again at the current odds and cover for the NHC.

Has anyone any info on the reason for him fading so fast? Presumably just race fitness?

[AnFiieLD.]

Apologies, haven't had a chance to catch up with the thread so may have already been cover. just caught up with the weekend racing last night:

The Big Breakaway vs The Big Getaway

Both ran at the weekend - both odds on - both beaten. The former cut to 12/1 for the RSA & 16/1 for the NHC. The latter pushed to 33/1 RSA & 20/1 NHC.

To me TBB looked far more novicey & distracted during his race, made mistakes and was beaten by a horse that is unlikely to be involved in any race at the festival.

TBG looks as though he jumped reasonably but obviously faded fast late on and was beaten by two horses with chase experience/race fitness. He was also beaten at odds on on his hurdle debut so no doubt he will improve as the season progresses. he was clear of TBB in the Ballymore and I can't see that this would be reversed next year. The yard has said he is an out and out stayer so presumably the trip was also short of his optimum.

I would far rather back a horse for the festival thinking Willie Mullins can improve him than Colin Tizzard. Undoubtedly they would both need to improve to feature but personally I don't get the price difference. Strongly felt TBG would be a major player in the RSA so will go in again at the current odds and cover for the NHC.

Has anyone any info on the reason for him fading so fast? Presumably just race fitness?

Agree with this post - I was a bit worried about the 2 false steps he took after clattering the first and whether he was feeling something late on but nothing has come out from connections as far as I’ve seen. I’d like to see him declared again over Christmas to confirm his well being before backing him again but 33/1 could be big

[RufusFlynn]

Agree with this post - I was a bit worried about the 2 false steps he took after clattering the first and whether he was feeling something late on but nothing has come out from connections as far as I’ve seen. I’d like to see him declared again over Christmas to confirm his well being before backing him again but 33/1 could be big

Agree, a declaration would certainly ease any doubts - but the price seems way too big of an over reaction. Antepost market is so sensitive.

Can't see him going off double figures wherever he runs if he is fit and well come March.

[RufusFlynn]

Changed my mind straight away......

Allmankind 16/1 BetVictor

Can anyone see better?



I might even add that....

I think Allmankind is a decent bet. Looks to jump quickly and accurately. Would be surprised if he didn't turn up in the Arkle. The yard ran Maire Banrigh last season who ran with a similar style - quickly and from the front. Skeltons know how to produce a good jumper and are starting to achieve some good results from their best horses.

Seems to be into single figure odds now but could see him going off shorter still come the day.

[ComplyOrDie]

A couple of issues I have with Allmankind, firstly he's currently getting a weight allowance from some rivals, although he did beat Hitman/GA Law without such allowances. He won't get that allowance at the festival.

Secondly, and more importantly, his running style. It caught him out in the Triumph last season, and it will very likely do exactly the same should he turn up in the Arkle. Especially given the fact he'll not be alone should Felix Desjy & Unexcepted both turn up as well. They could all easily cut each others throats, so to speak.

[charlie]

A couple of issues I have with Allmankind, firstly he's currently getting a weight allowance from some rivals, although he did beat Hitman/GA Law without such allowances. He won't get that allowance at the festival.

Secondly, and more importantly, his running style. It caught him out in the Triumph last season, and it will very likely do exactly the same should he turn up in the Arkle. Especially given the fact he'll not be alone should Felix Desjy & Unexcepted both turn up as well. They could all easily cut each others throats, so to speak.

I have a feeling 'horses for courses' will apply heavily to Allmankind and how they campaign him. The Skelton's are verbal about Cheltenham not being the be all and end all, so I wouldn't bet surprised to see them duck an Arkle clash with Shishkin in favour of somewhere like Aintree. That's probably not what I'd do mind, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they did.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have a feeling 'horses for courses' will apply heavily to Allmankind and how they campaign him. The Skelton's are verbal about Cheltenham not being the be all and end all, so I wouldn't bet surprised to see them duck an Arkle clash with Shishkin in favour of somewhere like Aintree. That's probably not what I'd do mind, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they did.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me Charlie. I see Skelton has said the focus on the festival is not right online at the RP today.

[charlie]

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me Charlie. I see Skelton has said the focus on the festival is not right online at the RP today.

Yeh saw that too - even more reason to think he could set aside Cheltenham and target Aintree.

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin will probably be minded as well, he'll skip Cheltenham for a race course gallop, in prep for a bumpers for jumpers race somewhere. Just doing what's best for the horse, making him jump fences is unfair. Definitely not in the horses best interests going over fences.

Leaves the path clear for Allmankind.

[ComplyOrDie]

Shishkin will probably be minded as well, he'll skip Cheltenham for a race course gallop, in prep for a bumpers for jumpers race somewhere. Just doing what's best for the horse, making him jump fences is unfair. Definitely not in the horses best interests going over fences.

Leaves the path clear for Allmankind.

Valid point, might cash out

[kinloch brae]

He’s raced once over fences and won easily so ‘clutching at straws’ seems premature. The P2P comment was just a brief observation, nothing more.

Just had a look at the entries for that race on Friday. Only 8, just further confirmation that the cupboard is bare. I would far sooner suggest that Monkfish will go off far shorter than 100/30 than The Big Getaway might go off single figures as someone has suggested.