Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

Hi MOM - this is a genuine question and not one to insight an argument and this isn't necessarily aimed at you specifically - your post just reminded me of a question...

If you have already backed the horse "Any Race" and have that security of getting a run for your money (if they make it to the Fez), is there a specific reason why you would then go back in on a specific race?
I've seen a few posters "split stakes" between a specific race and any race and I'm curious as to the reasoning.

Everyone's approach is different and I like to explore new strategies where possible.
In my case, once I have backed a horse "any race" and I am comfortable with my level of potential return, I can then "forget" about them until nearer the time.

I can maybe answer a bit of that from my own viewpoint.

One of the reasons I would look to back the specific targets rather than any race is:

• Backing the bigger prices (specific target) gives potential trading opportunities.

Now personally I won't have 'half stakes' on them both, I'd put the full stake on both (where cash out is available only)! So that I can end up with one 'proper bet'....however.....


In the question though you've referred to Any Race and Specific, and I did that with Appreciate It. He was 16/1 and whilst I thought that was the most likely target (and backed accordingly) I then went in and added the any race 10/1 price just in case I was wrong. It was sort of a safety net bet..... as if I'm right, it still is a fair enough price, but if I'm wrong, I'd still fancy him in one of the other races and therefore I wouldn't be gutted if I was wrong on the target.

That's the only reason I'd use a split stake between any race and a specific target.

[Leman14]

I did that with Appreciate It. He was 16/1 and whilst I thought that was the most likely target (and backed accordingly) I then went in and added the any race 10/1 price just in case I was wrong. It was sort of a safety net bet..... as if I'm right, it still is a fair enough price, but if I'm wrong, I'd still fancy him in one of the other races and therefore I wouldn't be gutted if I was wrong on the target.

That's the only reason I'd use a split stake between any race and a specific target.

That makes sense that way around.
I don't have the luxury of cash out (the wife may need to start up an interest in horse racing...), which is why I tend to take the shorter odds in the Any Race market.

The "cash-out" option is the bit that I was missing when trying to make sense of it.... as it's not in my Arsenal

Thanks

PS. I've decided that this is "I'm all ears" .... (not Butterfly!?!)

PPS. There's now too many emoji's to know what to do with

[JackieMoon33]

That makes sense that way around.
I don't have the luxury of cash out (the wife may need to start up an interest in horse racing...), which is why I tend to take the shorter odds in the Any Race market.

The "cash-out" option is the bit that I was missing when trying to make sense of it.... as it's not in my Arsenal

Thanks

PS. I've decided that this is "I'm all ears" .... (not Butterfly!?!)

PPS. There's now too many emoji's to know what to do with

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while

[YoungHustler]

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while

Hi JM

I thought 365 are one of the best accounts and don't restrict you as easily as many other bookies. I want to keep both my accounts open as long as possible so are you able to advise the number of bets you were cashing out on and the average percentage returns before they restricted you please? Thank you.

[Run4Home]

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while

Same happened to me removed my cash out, antepost bets and all stakes are like 30c max - get onto them and under GDPR ask for a subject access request on the account for all information.

Some of it makes for interesting reading, what they actually record on your account

My reason for closure which you can only find on the SAR was 'overnight tipping lines'

[Lobos]

Think I'll be adding Ontheropes to my 4 Miler book. He looks the ideal type from his good run behind Monkfish and is now qualified which is a major plus point. Also think Diol Ker (already backed TWAR) will go the same route as he too ran a very promising 'trial' for the 4 miler and is also qualified. Neither of them will beat Monkfish so pointless going RSA.

[Pendil]

Think I'll be adding Ontheropes to my 4 Miler book. He looks the ideal type from his good run behind Monkfish and is now qualified which is a major plus point. Also think Diol Ker (already backed TWAR) will go the same route as he too ran a very promising 'trial' for the 4 miler and is also qualified. Neither of them will beat Monkfish so pointless going RSA.

Diol Ker not yet qualified, needs top 4 in 2ml 7 1/2f +

[Lobos]

Diol Ker not yet qualified, needs top 4 in 2ml 7 1/2f +

Oh yeah, my bad. Thanks. Thought Monkfish race was over 3. Every chance he'll go that route though imo.

[JackieMoon33]

Hi JM

I thought 365 are one of the best accounts and don't restrict you as easily as many other bookies. I want to keep both my accounts open as long as possible so are you able to advise the number of bets you were cashing out on and the average percentage returns before they restricted you please? Thank you.

I'll be honest, I don't have a calculation I can share as the two account cash out restrictions were based on completely different bet portfolio's and the number and cash out percentage varied for each. The two times I had the concession removed I'd already made a profit pre-Cheltenham (approx 50% ROI) and had numerous bets still running. I knew it would happen but I have a crazy method in terms of chasing a big win and the concession is paramount to that process.

[JackieMoon33]

Same happened to me removed my cash out, antepost bets and all stakes are like 30c max - get onto them and under GDPR ask for a subject access request on the account for all information.

Some of it makes for interesting reading, what they actually record on your account

My reason for closure which you can only find on the SAR was 'overnight tipping lines'

I might give that a look although I know why they cut me off and they won't reinstate it regardless. As long as Bet365 keep the concession I should have enough family members to keep me going for a good while.

[Run4Home]

I might give that a look although I know why they cut me off and they won't reinstate it regardless. As long as Bet365 keep the concession I should have enough family members to keep me going for a good while.

Yeah, its more just out of interest. You would be amused the comments they write on each account and they have to hand all of them over if you ask for a SAR.

I had nothing to lose by requesting (as moved onto partners 365 account) just found it interesting the comments they make and recorded on me They literally record everything, one which stood out was when you request a price. I don't think they ever expect much people to ask for them...

[JackieMoon33]

Yeah, its more just out of interest. You would be assumed the comments they write on each account and they have to hand all of them over if you ask for a SAR.

I had nothing to lose by requesting (as moved onto partners 365 account) just found it interesting the comments they make and recorded on me They literally record everything, one which stood out what when you request a price. I don't think they ever expect much people to ask for them...

I'm intrigued now so may give it a go although I'm not sure if I want to know what they think of me in the comments as they may use the term 'mug' a fair bit

[Big Bucks]

The Trainer say's that the Irish Grand National is the Target T.O.T.G , so the N.h.chs might be a bit too close . i.m.o.

Just catching up in this thread do you have any quotes? Rewatched the rte coverage and said that connections might have a rethink post race.

Dont think I would rule it out!

[culloty]

On the off chance. Anyone heard news of Cobblers Way? still not entered for anything. Thanks

[Middle_Of_March]

Hi MOM - this is a genuine question and not one to insight an argument and this isn't necessarily aimed at you specifically - your post just reminded me of a question...

If you have already backed the horse "Any Race" and have that security of getting a run for your money (if they make it to the Fez), is there a specific reason why you would then go back in on a specific race?
I've seen a few posters "split stakes" between a specific race and any race and I'm curious as to the reasoning.

Everyone's approach is different and I like to explore new strategies where possible.
In my case, once I have backed a horse "any race" and I am comfortable with my level of potential return, I can then "forget" about them until nearer the time.

Hi mate - that’s a fair question.

To give some context, he was 22/1 for any race and 37/1 for the NH Chase. Both boosted with Hills from 20/1 and 33/1.

In my opinion, the horse will run in the NH Chase. However, my main fear was that if he came out on debut and ran as good as I think he could be, he perhaps would become too good for the NH Chase. Rich Ricci and Joe Chambers have both said the horse has summered best of anyone and really strengthened up. So if he did swerve the race and become and RSA candidate, he’d have been shorter than the 22/1 he currently is any race anyway. Which would leave me in the position of thinking, do I back FOC now for the RSA at around 16s for example as a horse I’ve always thought we be a very good novice chaser or do I leave him alone and potentially miss out on a horse I like because I got the target wrong.

So I literally came to the conclusion that both the 22/1 any race for one point is a fair bet and a straight 1 point on the NH Chase at 37/1 would also be justified. I’m happy with that position and think it depends on a horse by horse case whether it’s sensible. In this case, I’ll still have 2 points on him at an average price of 29.5/1 if he went for the NH Chase as I reckoned but with the caveat that I’d also have a point at 22/1 affectively if he becomes a horse who is too good for the race and ends up with stablemate Monkfish in the RSA.