Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

He potentially has 2, 3, or even 4 horses for some of the novice chases, and I can see horses like Energumene being left at home for example. It’s a long old season and he’ll be needing to mop up at Punchestown. I suspect with Gordon being in the best position he’s had so far to snatch the trainers title for the first time, Willie will attach more importance to defending that than possibly being tied 6-6 at Cheltenham and losing on count back because he didn’t run multiple novice chasers.

I don't see where you're making the leap though that he changes his plans?

He has needed to mop up at Punchestown before, and he has.....by running everything.... that's worked before, so why would he pass up a horses festival chance?


Imagine trying to tell Tony Bloom that, sorry Tony, I don't give a monkeys about about winning at the festival anymore with your horse, I want to pick up a pot in Ireland?



Anything that earns the right to be on the boat, will be on the boat.... no evidence to suggest he'll change his methods are there, unless you know something we don't?



His main worry is that Elliott has open class Championship horses, like Abacadabras.... Gordon still lacks a genuine 2 mile chaser too and WIllie has a couple. Gordon is also relying on Percy and Delta work in the staying chase division? Not good enough compared to Kemboy/Al Boum?.... Elliott has Sire Du Berlais and Fury Road for the hurdling division too so he's stronger there than he has been before?



Gordon makes no secret that he wants to win the trainers title more than Cheltenham winners, perhaps he'll ask JP if he can leave Sire Du Berlais at home so he can pick up the staying hurdle race at Punchestown?

[MTR]

Lieutenant Rocco has been priced up on 365 @ 999/1.

not sure what that’s about but I had 50p on it lol

back to 50/1 no cash out on the bet tho! Wonder if they’ll void the selection!

[Spectre]

I don't see where you're making the leap though that he changes his plans?

He has needed to mop up at Punchestown before, and he has.....by running everything.... that's worked before, so why would he pass up a horses festival chance?


Imagine trying to tell Tony Bloom that, sorry Tony, I don't give a monkeys about about winning at the festival anymore with your horse, I want to pick up a pot in Ireland?



Anything that earns the right to be on the boat, will be on the boat.... no evidence to suggest he'll change his methods are there, unless you know something we don't?



His main worry is that Elliott has open class Championship horses, like Abacadabras.... Gordon still lacks a genuine 2 mile chaser too and WIllie has a couple. Gordon is also relying on Percy and Delta work in the staying chase division? Not good enough compared to Kemboy/Al Boum?.... Elliott has Sire Du Berlais and Fury Road for the hurdling division too so he's stronger there than he has been before?



Gordon makes no secret that he wants to win the trainers title more than Cheltenham winners, perhaps he'll ask JP if he can leave Sire Du Berlais at home so he can pick up the staying hurdle race at Punchestown?

The reverse argument is fair Kev. I’ve considered that too, and in some respects Gordon may be better able to pull it off with multiple Gig horses for example.

If Willie says to Tony Bloom you won’t win the Arkle but you’ll win the Grade 1 Novice at Punchestown if I keep him fresh enough do you think he’d be persuaded. If I added to that I’ll keep him in the entries and you can lay the arse of it, do you think he’d be persuaded then?!

[Kevloaf]

The reverse argument is fair Kev. I’ve considered that too, and in some respects Gordon may be better able to pull it off with multiple Gig horses for example.

If Willie says to Tony Bloom you won’t win the Arkle but you’ll win the Grade 1 Novice at Punchestown if I keep him fresh enough do you think he’d be persuaded. If I added to that I’ll keep him in the entries and you can lay the arse of it, do you think he’d be persuaded then?!

Haha, maybe Bloom is the wrong example for my part

[Topofthegame2021]

back to 50/1 no cash out on the bet tho! Wonder if they’ll void the selection!

Not sure - it’s only 50p so it’ll be fun to see what they do

[dannycraigpirates]

Probably their way of catching out the shrewdies on the antepost markets, and closing their accounts down

[Outlaw]

Yeah Altior another one who deserves to be mentioned..... the fact Min was the fav means he still falls short of what Envoi Allen has done so far in their careers to date?

Not sure i follow what you mean here Kev?
Are you saying Envoi has potentially achieved more at this point of his career as he's won every race whilst being fav doing so? Does that make him better than say Altior at the same point simply because he wasn't fav for his novice hurdle? Until a horse clashes especially when opposites sides of the Irish sea you wouldn't find out until then and a market can clearly rate one over the other especially if a Mullins horse. If Altior had been fav that day i wouldn't rate him any higher because of it.

[jono]

Can't really add anymore to descirbe how good Envoi Allen is.
The best horse in training.

The fact Elliott is happy to (and has been for a while now) call him

"the horse of a lifetime"

Already, at just 6 years old speaks volumes.
He used the same words to describe Don Cossack when he retired.
A horse who had won the Gold Cup , the Melling Chase by 26L, the Punchestown Gold Cup by 7L.
Ever since then he's been reluctant to state in public just how good he thinks a horse is, including Samcro when he looked to be the star of NH racing.

For him to be saying this now, in his novice chase season and after 2 incredibly weak novice chases says everything you need to know.

Just hope he gets a clear run over the next 3 or 4 years to show just how far he can go

[charlie]

Sky still go Shishkin and EA both to win by 1L or more 11/1.

[ToniC]

Sky still go Shishkin and EA both to win by 1L or more 11/1.

Winning margin been less than a length in one of the last 10 renewals in the Arkle & 2 of the last 10 in the JLT. This is a good value bet & a nice way in for people who didn’t get on at bigger prices IMO at double the odds of the standard double

[Middle_Of_March]

So the two RSA market movers today are obviously Monkfish (now as short as 3/1) and Next Destination (now as short at 10/1, but still 20/1 with Hills).

Anyone already on Monkfish must have been absolutely delighted with today. He did everything easily and looked a complete natural over fences. He won so easily the calibre of what he beat doesn't come into it for me, and as someone who is not on I wish I was, but never will be because he's priced up as the real deal, but not proved it yet. He is very, very exciting.

For those not on either, the horse to take out of today from an ante post and value perspective is IMO without question, Next Destination.

Next Destination was 10/1 fav having not jumped a fence in public before being ruled out in January 2019, which tells us he was very well fancied.

He's clearly had his issues, moved to Paul Nicholls and ran what Paul called an 'awesome' seasonal appearance run behind Roksana at Wetherby. To me it was a superb reappearance run after 920 days off, but what he did today was much closer to awesome, IMO of course. If ever there was a horse that should 'bounce' then it was Next Destination today. 27 days ago he ran over 3m after 920 days off, then puts in a near flawless round of jumping on his chase debut on ground less that ideal, and wins a Grade 2 with enough in hand to think there is upwards trajectory.

I thought it was serious performance disguised on a busy day of racing as just a good performance, which is so important in terms of finding value, and the price discrepancy between bookmakers kind of suggest they are not sure either! It was clear for all to see that turning in he was getting tired and his Wetherby exploits were catching up with him, but HC knew exactly how to handle him, and class prevailed.

I think he is a proper RSA contender, and cannot see PN having a better horse to aim at this race than Next Destination.

When his name first came up everyone was naturally very reserved pre-Wetherby and even post Wetherby we still didn't know if he was fit, well and would take to chasing. For me, he's answered those questions today.

He was incredibly well fancied for the RSA on here the year he got injured, and he's 9 next year. We've seen 50+ Grade 1 chase winners nine years or older over 3m or more at Cheltenham over the years, and if Paul can keep ND fit and well, and steadily improve him, I think 22/1 EW is excellent ante post value bet.

Cue the news on Monday that ND has been ruled out of the season

I’m sure I find myself agreeing with you more than I do anyone else on here but I totally agree once again.

As someone who’s backed ND for the RSA for the last two years, I’m shocked that ive not actually got him in there already. But the 20/1 is just too big imo. 14/1 I’d have him. I like the horse.

Other than 2 points in free bets at 17/2, I haven’t got anything on Monfish. Not sure why but I didn’t see him as one that would be shorter than 5/1 by Christmas. Now I think he’s too short for me to touch but perhaps he can be in my third rollup attempt of the season at some point if I change my mind.

As good as it was as a debut from Monfish, I actually think I preferred the horse who I’ve always thought was a hype train... The Big Breakaway of the 3m novice chasers so far.

Looks a good division as always though. The Christmas racing both sides of the Irish Sea always tells a lot about the RSA in my opinion. The Kauto Star on Boxing Day being one of a few decent contests to work out the pecking order of things.

[Istabraq]

The Christmas racing both sides of the Irish Sea always tells a lot about the RSA in my opinion. The Kauto Star on Boxing Day being one of a few decent contests to work out the pecking order of things.

That’s a good point, most decent novice chasers are given soft introductions and it’s usually only at the Christmas festivals they meet horses with similar abilities....

[Kevloaf]

Not sure i follow what you mean here Kev?
Are you saying Envoi has potentially achieved more at this point of his career as he's won every race whilst being fav doing so? Does that make him better than say Altior at the same point simply because he wasn't fav for his novice hurdle? Until a horse clashes especially when opposites sides of the Irish sea you wouldn't find out until then and a market can clearly rate one over the other especially if a Mullins horse. If Altior had been fav that day i wouldn't rate him any higher because of it.

Just a loose and fairly pointless point , that Envoi Allen is more high profile at this stage than Altior was, as Envoi Allen is still unbeaten, including the Champion Bumper. Whereas Altior had been beaten and Min had a bigger reputation.

As Altior wasn't favourite, whilst you personally may not rate him any differently, I'm just saying it adds to the aura that Envoi Allen was a favourite and won.

[BigChaang]

Court maid impressive there... national hunt chase maybe?

The Trainer say's that the Irish Grand National is the Target T.O.T.G , so the N.h.chs might be a bit too close . i.m.o.

[Topofthegame2021]

The Trainer say's that the Irish Grand National is the Target T.O.T.G , so the N.h.chs might be a bit too close . i.m.o.

Thanks for the update - shame really, I’d give her a good chance in the NH chase based on that performance