Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Outlaw]

PN comments post race-
"ran a lot better than we thought at Wetherby and he'd schooled over fences and jumped great. He did that really well and slower ground would suit him a lot more than what it is today. He's got talent and is a very good horse if we can keep him sound. We've just got to mind him and he's a lovely horse, who could come back here next year for the Ladbrokes Trophy. He'd be ideal for that. I wouldn't want to run him that often and we could go to Kempton on Boxing Day if the ground was very soft, but with horses who have had problems I'm nervous going there as they go from the grass to the all-weather, which isn't ideal. Something like the Reynoldstown might suit and he'd have an entry in what was the RSA as he jumps a bit left-handed - Paul Nicholls, trainer

Given his reservations on his continuing well being coupled with PN lack of runners in the last few years i doubt he will go down the 4miler route like i potentially envisaged. If good enough RSA then and if staying fit get your early 2021 Hennessey vouchers ready.

[Istabraq]

the horse to take out of today from an ante post and value perspective is IMO without question, Next Destination.

I may have been harsh earlier with my thoughts on Next Destination, I actually had a decent bet in him
today (and was only denied a proper pick up on a trixie by a 66/1 pig Kev has a questionable love affair with), I was just expecting him to clear away, he jumped great and travelled well, I was just waiting for him to go 3 or 4 clear and stamp his authority.

Hold the Note ran terribly at Wetherby and again today, Kalooki beat up on trees last season and only met one decent horse and was put in his place, the runner up is the unknown, he could end up a good horse.
Who knows we may look back on this race in 4 months and it throws up multiple winners but right now it doesn’t have the look of a deep race for me but I guess if you hold a big price ticket on Next Destination you are no doubt happy, at least until the NH Chase is considered...

[charlie]

I may have been harsh earlier with my thoughts on Next Destination, I actually had a decent bet in him
today (and was only denied a proper pick up on a trixie by a 66/1 pig Kev has a questionable love affair with), I was just expecting him to clear away, he jumped great and travelled well, I was just waiting for him to go 3 or 4 clear and stamp his authority.

Hold the Note ran terribly at Wetherby and again today, Kalooki beat up on trees last season and only met one decent horse and was put in his place, the runner up is the unknown, he could end up a good horse.
Who knows we may look back on this race in 4 months and it throws up multiple winners but right now it doesn’t have the look of a deep race for me but I guess if you hold a big price ticket on Next Destination you are no doubt happy, at least until the NH Chase is considered...

Are you being realistic expecting a novice to stamp their authority over 145+ rated chasers on chase debut when racing for the second time in a month after nearly 3 years off?

[Istabraq]

Are you being realistic expecting a novice to stamp their authority over 145+ rated chasers on chase debut when racing for the second time in a month after nearly 3 years off?

Well I don’t think it’s unrealistic for a potential RSA horse to be putting some daylight between them.
As I’ve said, the runner up is the unknown, those behind him appear short of graded class so unreliable yardsticks.
Just my take...

[Lobos]

Nice to see The Big Getaway entered in the 3 mile Neville's Hotel chase at Xmas. A nice qualifying race for the 4 miler

Talking 4 miler.....I thought Diol Ker looked as though he needed that distance already today. Stayed on well again at the end. Not good enough for the RSA but would have chances in the NH Chase.

[charlie]

Nice to see The Big Getaway entered in the 3 mile Neville's Hotel chase at Xmas. A nice qualifying race for the 4 miler

Talking 4 miler.....I thought Diol Ker looked as though he needed that distance already today. Stayed on well again at the end. Not good enough for the RSA but would have chances in the NH Chase.

Galloping a Ballymore field out their comfort zone off a slow pace + Ruby emphasising he has a higher cruising speed than Monkfish = sure, 4 miler

[charlie]

Well I don't think it's unrealistic for a potential RSA horse to be putting some daylight between them.
As I’ve said, the runner up is the unknown, those behind him appear short of graded class so unreliable yardsticks.
Just my take...

I respect your opinion Ista - we agree to disagree

[Lobos]

Galloping a Ballymore field out their comfort zone off a slow pace + Ruby emphasising he has a higher cruising speed than Monkfish = sure, 4 miler

“I can’t wait to see The Big Getaway over three miles, maybe even four miles on heavy ground over fences. He's even bigger than Douvan, I think he’s the biggest horse we’ve ever had."........= 4miler to me

[charlie]

“I can’t wait to see The Big Getaway over three miles, maybe even four miles on heavy ground over fences. He's even bigger than Douvan, I think he’s the biggest horse we’ve ever had."........= 4miler to me

Time will tell, its not out the question, but the Donnelly's didn't buy him for the fuc*ing 4 miler

[Lobos]

Time will tell, its not out the question, but the Donnelly's didn't buy him for the fuc*ing 4 miler

Wouldn't they and the Mullins prefer a better winning chance in that race though ? The RSA could be very hot and Monkfish did look hugely imposing and impressive today.

[Pendil]

“I can’t wait to see The Big Getaway over three miles, maybe even four miles on heavy ground over fences. He's even bigger than Douvan, I think he’s the biggest horse we’ve ever had."........= 4miler to me

Size matters?

[JackieMoon33]

Wouldn't they and the Mullins prefer a better winning chance in that race though ? The RSA could be very hot and Monkfish did look hugely imposing and impressive today.

I’m pretty sure all involved will want to see him (TBG) perform on the track before shoe horning him into a race. What if he puts up an equally good or better performance than Monkfish? Does that then relegate Monkfish to the NH Chase? I’d say ‘No’ and it will be a good while until that picture becomes clearer.

[charlie]

Wouldn't they and the Mullins prefer a better winning chance in that race though ? The RSA could be very hot and Monkfish did look hugely imposing and impressive today.

Assumptions on top of assumptions.

Based on what I've seen and heard, TBG is more likely to take on EA than go 4-miler.

[Lobos]

Assumptions on top of assumptions.

Based on what I've seen and heard, TBG is more likely to take on EA than go 4-miler.

At this stage of the season before a horse has set foot on a course it's all about assumptions. You are assuming he may go Marsh and I'm assuming he may go 4 miler. Nothing wrong with that from either of us.

[charlie]

At this stage of the season before a horse has set foot on a course it's all about assumptions. You are assuming he may go Marsh and I'm assuming he may go 4 miler. Nothing wrong with that from either of us.

Yep, that's fair.