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Originally posted by Eggs
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I just don't think they'll be really going for it today. They'll just make sure he gets round safely and in the top 4. He could still hunt round and win but I wouldn't bank on it. They have first and foremost sent him over to qualify for the NHC. -
Today will tell a lot as it’s his first run over 3m.
He should qualify easy enough, not sure if he’ll win today though.
Not on board for the NHC but hope it goes well for all as it was a great shout and the target has been confirmed as well.Comment
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I really in two minds about this.Originally posted by Lobos
On one hand he just needs to finish 4th so why give 100%, on the other hand he'll be put away after this race and have a nice long winter break so why not try 100% to win today.
At the prices if I knew he was going to give it all today he would definitely be a bet. But there is too much nagging doubt for me to be getting stuck in.Comment
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Patrick also mentioned that he thinks you need a hardened horse for the NH Chase so a second season novice and/or handicapper has an advantage. If he's talking up TBG (or Aione a few months back) then those horses will not fit that criteria as they'll likely only run 3 or 4 times before the festival.Originally posted by KevloafYou've just said all the things you believe.
I'm asking if we have evidence that the Donnolly's would go out of their way to have a horse run in a specific race?
Just repeating myself, but it's dangerous to assume... if you owned a horse and had Patrick Mullins telling you, you'd win the NH Chase, and that Monkfish is a better horse, do you think they'd put their foot down and demand he ran in the RSA?
That's a leading question of course.... but still.....
He may well end up a better prospect than Monkfish, what do you think Ricci will do? Demand he wins the 'better race' or just wants the winner?Comment
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Good point. I would say that some of the winners of the RSA's could also have won the NH chase whereas it would not work the other way round.Originally posted by QuevegaComment
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Why would they be holding back with Galvin today? It makes no sense. He's race fit, they will want to see him running a decent race over three miles at the course, and there's decent prizemoney on offer. He's then going on a winter break to freshen up for March. I have zero doubt he'll be running on merit today. If he gets turned over it'll be by a better horse.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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I agree/hope so Spectre but history tells us you have to consider the less obvious, especially with Elliott.Originally posted by Spectre
I'd be shocked if this was an elaborate early Kim Muir plot but you can't completely dismiss such antics can you ?Comment
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Someone made the point earlier that's stuck with me. If he's in second or third a couple of lengths down with 2 to jump are they gonna chuck him at the final 2 or be satisfied with getting him qualified? He could well be that far ahead he doesn't need to be really pushed out but it's enough of a doubt to put me off backing him today.Originally posted by Spectre View PostComment
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Well said that man.Originally posted by Spectre View Post
Worth noting too that it's not like he runs in the green and gold - I imagine the Bartlett's (who don't have many I don't think) will quite fancy winning 12 grand.Comment
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Of course, he could be so good that they go RSA.
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Galvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...Originally posted by Big Bucks
On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chances
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I'd say he'll only go bigger if he's beaten well (and doesn't qualify) or doesn't complete, otherwise I don't see a way they'd push him out as he'd likely be qualified for the race then too.Originally posted by jack1092Galvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...
On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chancesComment
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Bumper form wasn't the reason Carefully Selected went off odds on is it?Originally posted by jack1092 View PostGalvin doesn't go into the race with anywhere near the form CS had from bumpers etc so i'd doubt he'd be as short even with Codd on his back...
On another point, wouldn't it be nice if Galvin was beaten today, qualified + the bookies reacted to his loss by making him slightly bigger for the NHC......what are the chances
Carefully Selected went off odds on because Champagne Classic got pulled out and there was no obvious replacement for him for Gordon and therefore it looked very weak on paper.Comment
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Bumper form obviously contributed to it though which is what i mean? It did look a weak renewal, but i doubt Galvin would ever be odds on in a NHC he hasn't the same profile as a CS which led punters to think it looked a virtual penalty kick!?Originally posted by KevloafComment
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Was hoping one or two might be stupid enough to not realise the qualifications necessary still....chances very slim i know.Originally posted by ComplyOrDieComment
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