Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Pendil]

Unexpected RPR 153 - already good enough to place in an average Arkle.

A marker set for other Beginners Chase winners.

I looked back at Cilaos Emery’s electric January 2019 Chase debut, and it had an RPR of 145, and a Racing Post comment of:-

“As impressive a chasing debut we've seen all season from a horse who enters the Arkle reckoning now. Most firms go 8-1 about the Arkle and, in what looks an open renewal at this stage, he'd hold obvious claims.”

I would suggest that rating is as questionable as Darver Stars 154

[ComplyOrDie]

I would suggest that rating is as questionable as Darver Stars 154

Yeah, Annamix was too last season. Both higher than the RPR given to Chacun Pour Soi after debut Which was the same as Unexcepted (153).

I'd say you can interpret them how you want, but probably better off going by the visual performance you see at this stage.

[ToniC]

I agree the 22/1 is fair and have backed myself, given the way the race unfolded its hard to say just how good of a performance it was, add to that the bottomless ground and it Unexcepted could have been flattered by the result but 2 things really struck me the first was just how well he travelled & jumped not only for his first run over fences but for an inexperienced horse in general, and secondly just how much he looked to have left at the end, when probably not 100% race fit either after 262 days off.

I’ve backed both him & Elixir dainay for the arkle, and will watch the cash out on that one accordingly.

[Saxon Warrior]

Its the travelling and jumping that I go on, as well as trainer/jockey, Great Field close relative, and I'm really surprised its hung around at 20/1, with a cashout firm too.

This is regardless of my thoughts on rating.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Galvin is declared in the 3m novice at Cheltenham on Friday

[Spectre]

And it would make sense if he wants to put him away now until the Spring and he needs to get his 3 mile chase in. I suspect they are seriously considering bringing him over with one or two others they want to get marks for.

I buy into the Dallas des Pictons theory of the Pertemps, and wouldn't mind a price on him if he's confirmed to travel.

[The King Pimm]

Its the travelling and jumping that I go on, as well as trainer/jockey, Great Field close relative, and I'm really surprised its hung around at 20/1, with a cashout firm too.

This is regardless of my thoughts on rating.

He jumped the fences at Tipperary with ease yesterday from what I saw from the camera they were filming with from the moon!!! I’ve seen novices with bigger reputations and expectations struggle or be a guessing on debut but I didn’t see that from Unexpected (sorry Kev I couldn’t resist ), Captain Guinness aside nothing pressured him from the start and the ground was soft/heavy. The likelihood is the ground in March will be similar if the past few years are anything to go by so I think he’s a great bet at 16/1 plus

[Can't Catch Me]

Must admit Ive tried to hold off but think 22/1 is more than fair based on that performance, especially when you consider CG was 16/1 pre race! I've had a point merely as a cover bet.

[Can't Catch Me]

Attheraces reported that Rachael Blackmore said CG was 'unsound behind' which was different to the 'clinically abnormal' assessment. It looked more like he might have pulled something stretching and if that is the case, it would be a positive for backers.

[fatherjohn]

mark walsh said he was taking a pull each fence after out jumping captain guiness and watching back again he is nearly standing up to keep unexcepted behind him before taking on. I guess we don't know at what point captain guiness developed the issue but for first spin over fences was more impressive jumping than darver star for me

[Saxon Warrior]

Galvin is declared in the 3m novice at Cheltenham on Friday

I thought that might happen, to get 3M Qualified now, rather than hope to in the weeks before the Festival.
Thus avoiding the Carefully Selected cock-up of having to back-up two races close together.

[Craigy14]

Attheraces reported that Rachael Blackmore said CG was 'unsound behind' which was different to the 'clinically abnormal' assessment. It looked more like he might have pulled something stretching and if that is the case, it would be a positive for backers.

That’s how I see it as it looked a very awkward landing indeed.

I’m no vet but he wasn’t right from then on and rightly pulled up.

[Kevloaf]

Must admit Ive tried to hold off but think 22/1 is more than fair based on that performance, especially when you consider CG was 16/1 pre race! I've had a point merely as a cover bet.

Does that just go to show how bad a price Causation Guinness actually was?

Its notable how fashionable or fancied horses are potentially always under priced and then horses who win when not strongly fancied are over priced even after the results. Unexcepted was 2nd fav so not exactly unfancied, but it's weird nonetheless.

[Kevloaf]

And it would make sense if he wants to put him away now until the Spring and he needs to get his 3 mile chase in. I suspect they are seriously considering bringing him over with one or two others they want to get marks for.

I buy into the Dallas des Pictons theory of the Pertemps, and wouldn't mind a price on him if he's confirmed to travel.

It's exciting isn't it.

[Can't Catch Me]

Yes indeed Kev. I posted that before the race... CG was the worst price Id seen so far this year (Goshen aside maybe!)