General question - Horse Pedigree

[Kevloaf]

This should be in the other part of the forum but more traffic here and seems busy today and I am interested to here any thoughts...

I've noticed plenty of chat regarding horses pedigree's - noticibly more than recent years on here, and indeed on podcasts too they seem to talk about them more than I've ever noticed before.

Question - When looking at races and potential betting angles:

1. Do you put more stock in to Flat racing pedigree than National Hunt?
2. Do you put more stock in to National Hunt racing pedigree than Flat?
3. Both codes equally important and always consider it?
4. Don't care for pedigree's, what they do on the track matters?
5. Any other combination of these words!

What do you all think?

[Quevega]

This should be in the other part of the forum but more traffic here and seems busy today and I am interested to here any thoughts...

I've noticed plenty of chat regarding horses pedigree's - noticibly more than recent years on here, and indeed on podcasts too thery seem to talk about them more than I've ever noticed before.

Question - When looking at races and potential betting angles:

1. Do you put more stock in to Flat racing pedigree than National Hunt?
2. Do you put more stock in to National Hunt racing pedigree than Flat?
3. Both codes equally important and always consider it?
4. Don't care for pedigree's, what they do on the track matters?
5. Any other combination of these words!

What do you all think?

3. both need to be considered, but the importance depends on the horse you're looking at and the race itself.

I often look at breeding if a horse steps up or down in trip,
I'll sometimes use it as a deciding factor if stuck between two horses I think are value bets.
One of my most successful recent following of breeding is Kayf Tara, a producer of various National Hunt successes, verying ground and trips but tend to do better once they step up to 2m 4f plus, and are generally better on softer going.
So hurdlers by kayf tara over 2m on soft or stepping up in trip, especially when going handicapping are ones to watch.
Bumpers on soft heavy on stiff tracks also.

[Istabraq]

Not something I’ve placed a great deal of stock in but there are a few in here with far more knowledge of breeding than me, I expect it plays far more importance in the flat world where introducing new blood lines in an attempt to find the next Frankel is necessary.
I’ll trust my eyes on what I see on the course but I’m always open to new strategies...

[Quevega]

I think to add to the above. I'm not a big believer in the 'doesn't act on the ground theory'.
I think this is fair with flat horses, especially younger ones as they can be more petulant and so on.
I also think a horses action is important with this.
But for older horses and National Hunt types I think the ground simply influences the need for speed and/or stamina. Therefore, a 2 mile hurdle at cheltenham on heavy, I would be looking at the horses previous form over further, or it's breeding. Not whether it acts or not.
I've not seen too many horses with obvious actions over jumps although as an example - a skippy action like Cloudy Dream's seems obvious to me it prefers a sound surface. Which is funny as it's previous trainer ran it on soft every time last year but was more circumspect with another horse of theirs.

[JackieMoon33]

When it comes to ante post betting on Novices I tend to use breeding data as part of my due diligence process. I don't like to bet on hearsay or whispers so I have to justify the bet, especially if I'm tying up money for a period of time. For Novice hurdlers that I want to get a price on based on a bumper performance (without seeing them jump), I always use the breeding to try and plot the correct race. In recent years the 'any race market' has removed some of the risk but you sacrifice the price accordingly. As I like to place multiples I need to try and predict the right race rather than rely on those markets.

A good recent example was an early bet I placed on Yorkhill for the Ballymore. He is sired by Presenting who was one of my favourite sires and one of the most prolific in National Hunt. However, I've never found a horse sired by him win the Supreme Novices so even though he won over 2 miles during the season, I always felt the right race would be the Ballymore. The same can be said for Flemensfirth progeny as they almost always need a trip regardless of whether they showed speed in a bumper. Using a quick search of the sire data can sometimes eliminate a certain trip although some sires do produce progeny where there is a less obvious guide to possible distances. The other stumbling block is the new National Hunt sires where there is a limited pool of data to draw conclusions on distances. I think Getaway will prove a good sire in years to come but I don't have a firm opinion on his progeny distances due to the lack of data.

[jack1092]

I do use pedigrees for both codes, however, i tend to think i give it more stock on the flat.

[ComplyOrDie]

As with some of my more recent posts on the Cheltenham Festival part of the forum I do see breeding as a positive to use when looking at NH horses. I do not use it for flat racing as I do not bet an awful lot on this and would find it a waste of my time.

I agree with a lot of what has been said before, ground and track are not something I consider when looking into a horses pedigree, trip and previous progeny at certain trips is usually my starting point.

I agree about using it for novice hurdlers for sure, but struggle when it comes to the French imports as I rarely know much about their pedigrees myself.

[BigChaang]

I'm probably going to say no 4 , I have no Knowledge of Pedigree's , Flat or jumps.
At the end of the day , got to trust the Trainer , If they like the horse and enter it for
certain races , courses ,going , i have to assume they know their stuff.

[BigChaang]

**, Doesn't mean i can't learn something though .And the Best thing to me about the Forum ,
is the Input from a lot of people , and knowledge , that gets shared .

[archie]

I hardly ever bet on the flat unless there's information from a usually reliable source so I basically have no interest in flat breeding.

Over the jumps, my interest is more from the buying side rather than betting and I try to have as many different sires as possible so that I don't have a group of horses that need the same trip and going. I also concentrate on mares these days because there is potential for resale as a broodmare at the end of their racing career.

Like everyone else, I prefer to see my horses run sooner rather than later so I tend to go for more compact types rather than horses who will be chasers if everything goes well for 2 or 3 years and they fill out their frame. This tends to rule out some sires. Not unnaturally, if I have a good experience with a particular sire that would be a tick.

By and large, when you're buying, the dam's side is more significant than the sire who are all pretty well known for what they produce. Anyone who has seen a sales catalogue will know that the detail listed for each horse is the dam's side for 3 or 4 generations. I've mainly gone on the assumption that the sire gives the stamp or frame of the horse and what goes inside that frame comes from the dam.

Fortunately for the average punter, all this goes on well before he/she has a bet so, at that stage, I only consider form. Flemensfirth is generally thought of as a sire of staying chasers but the likes of Flemenstar show that graded races at the minimum trip can be won.

[Quevega]

I'm probably going to say no 4 , I have no Knowledge of Pedigree's , Flat or jumps.
At the end of the day , got to trust the Trainer , If they like the horse and enter it for
certain races , courses ,going , i have to assume they know their stuff.

There is a problem with this thought process, and that's the theory that every horse entered in a given race is being given the best possible opportunity to win that particular race, by the trainer and jockey etc.

I'm not suggesting anything too untoward, simply that it is a well known practice that many trainers, if not all, will at some point have campaigned horses over inadequate trips/ground or vice versa, (based on the breeding,training methods, in terms of speed and stamina based and general fitness)
They clearly do this in order to gain an attractive handicap mark which they can then exploit. Some will also do this for schooling or learning a horse to race, as well as for race fitness.
You are correct to assume they know their stuff though.
Trust no-one, except yourself, and maybe your mum and dad.