Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Folski]

I backed him in that bumper so I don't dislike him. And You can only beat what's infront of you, But I'd be suprised if he hasn't beat very little there. Column of fire was raw and green. I think the winner just knew his job . And would have got spanked in the punchestown champion bumper

I'd be shocked if he didn't get spanked in it, he'd have been running against battle hardened bumper horses who were a lot more experienced than him. You don't see a lot of horses make their rules debut in a G1.

[ComplyOrDie]

We've not had the same market move for COF as we did Samcro yet, have we? Maybe a sign of weakness, or am I being typically premature?

I'm still amazed Hollowgraphic is a 33/1 shot tbh, he was the top bumper horse for Willie but pulled from the festival due to a 'set back'. Willie's recent winners of this race have been bumper horses that have not run in the champion bumper and the breeding is bang on! Sorry if I sound like a broken record, but am dead keen on his chances, albeit we are still yet to see him over a hurdle, but the way he quickened away in heavy in his final bumper reminded me of a certain Samcro, the way he went about it.

[Scooby91]

We've not had the same market move for COF as we did Samcro yet, have we? Maybe a sign of weakness, or am I being typically premature?

I'm still amazed Hollowgraphic is a 33/1 shot tbh, he was the top bumper horse for Willie but pulled from the festival due to a 'set back'. Willie's recent winners of this race have been bumper horses that have not run in the champion bumper and the breeding is bang on! Sorry if I sound like a broken record, but am dead keen on his chances, albeit we are still yet to see him over a hurdle, but the way he quickened away in heavy in his final bumper reminded me of a certain Samcro, the way he went about it.

I have nothing concrete to back it up.
But I'm pretty sure that tornado flyer beat him in a schooling bumper and that's why he diddnt run. They were saying tornado flyer has suddenly stepped up and not to write him off and that hollowgraphic dissapointed in a piece of work all at the same time.

[JackieMoon33]

I'd be shocked if he didn't get spanked in it, he'd have been running against battle hardened bumper horses who were a lot more experienced than him. You don't see a lot of horses make their rules debut in a G1.

Commander Of Fleet is a year younger too so that would have counted against him along with his inexperience.

[Chris]

I have nothing concrete to back it up.
But I'm pretty sure that tornado flyer beat him in a schooling bumper and that's why he diddnt run. They were saying tornado flyer has suddenly stepped up and not to write him off and that hollowgraphic dissapointed in a piece of work all at the same time.

I like Hollowgraphic myself, I have never known Willie to keep a bumper horse for 2 seasons he was second in the Land Rover and normally would go hurdling the following season however he kept him as a bumper horse, So my conclusion is he was his best bumper horse.

[archie]

Hollowgraphic looks good, but must be fragile....from what i've heard i wouldn't be in a rush to back him until you hear he's definitely returned to training lets just say that...

Nota bene!

[Chris]

Thanks for your update.

[Kevloaf]

Hey lads. I think the key to Pym is Kempton. Kempton is just a track I associate with Henderson, I always like backing his horses there. However, he doesn't tend to run horses for this race at Kempton.

You might find the odd one in the last few years such as Cup Final but I think Nicky thought he was a Supreme horse but after he got stuffed twice by Irving threw him in here hoping that he might improve for a step up.

Simonsig went to Ascot, Sandown and Kelso.
Chatterbox went to Newbury twice.
Vyta Du Roc went to Cheltenham, Sandown & Newbury.
On The Blind Side who I think we can all agree was coming here hadn't been near the place either.
Finian's rainbow who was a champion chaser (all beit a poor renewal) won a bumper at Kempton but didn't go near the place over hurdles before finishing 5th in this taking in Newbury x2 and Ascot.

Who went to Kempton as a novice, River Wilde, Altior, Josses Hill, Vaniteux, Darlan.
Huntingdon seems to be another place where he sends Supreme horses with Buveur D'Air, Tent & Spirit Son also taking in that.

Whether you turn out to be right or wrong, that is an excellent post/angle that hadn't gone anywhere near my mind.

I am perhaps foolish and am taking Hendo on his word that the horse wants further... and have backed at 45/1 as mentioned.... if the Supreme ends up being more likely (perhaps his next ewntry will tell us) I may back Pym "any race"... and I agree with pretty much everyone that has gone any race... I just thought 45/1 was massive considering it is the race Henderson has literally said would have been the plan last year.

[Istabraq]

Huntingdon seems to be another place where he sends Supreme horses with Buveur D'Air, Tent & Spirit Son also taking in that.

No issue running horses at Huntingdon during the season but it’a a big negative for horses to have their Cheltenham prep run there.
Huntingdon, Bangor, Ludlow and Plumpton have a record of something like 0-120 odd, obviously these tracks are the polar opposite of Cheltenham so I guess it’s a bit like a 1500m athlete preparing for the Olympics by having a few 200m races....

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

No issue running horses at Huntingdon during the season but it’a a big negative for horses to have their Cheltenham prep run there.
Huntingdon, Bangor, Ludlow and Plumpton have a record of something like 0-120 odd, obviously these tracks are the polar opposite of Cheltenham so I guess it’s a bit like a 1500m athlete preparing for the Olympics by having a few 200m races....

Incidentally looks like Kalashnikov will open at Plumpton, I wonder if Amy Murphy knows that stat...haha!

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Gordy says Commander of Fleet is a 2 miler in his stable tour today

[Folski]

Whether you turn out to be right or wrong, that is an excellent post/angle that hadn't gone anywhere near my mind.

I am perhaps foolish and am taking Hendo on his word that the horse wants further... and have backed at 45/1 as mentioned.... if the Supreme ends up being more likely (perhaps his next ewntry will tell us) I may back Pym "any race"... and I agree with pretty much everyone that has gone any race... I just thought 45/1 was massive considering it is the race Henderson has literally said would have been the plan last year.

Kev, sorry I just saw this. Thank you for the praise I think it is definitely worth keeping an eye on where he sends Pym next. I'm on for the Ballymore as well so here's hoping.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Bit of money for the well regarded Brewin'upastorm this evening for this race (3 bookies clipped into 25s from 33s). Been on the radar a while so will probably have a point at 25s with Bet365. After my experience backing a similar top prospect (Umndeni) who couldn't jump for toffee that cash out option is a real bonus with these novice hurdlers

[JackieMoon33]

Bit of money for the well regarded Brewin'upastorm this evening for this race (3 bookies clipped into 25s from 33s). Been on the radar a while so will probably have a point at 25s with Bet365. After my experience backing a similar top prospect (Umndeni) who couldn't jump for toffee that cash out option is a real bonus with these novice hurdlers

After the news that CoF may be a Supreme horse, Brewin'Upastorm has replaced him as my number one early pick for this race. His first bumper race really stuck with me and despite being a smaller, up and coming yard, I really like Olly Murphy. Although I agree with looking at the big yards for Festival contenders (stats back that up even more in recent years), I've got faith that Olly can get the best out the talented horses he has and have them spot on for the big day.

[jack1092]

Kev you aren't foolish taking Hendo's word about staying further. He did look like a trip would be no problem to him.

However, it's possible as a novice hurdler he will be fine over 2miles, and go up in trip as he gets older.