Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[thistlecracker]

66% of stakes on Betfair for COF have been for the Ballymore tbf, so you may well be right. If it takes as long as the Samcro decision to be made and he performs on the track it is a traders dream.

Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too

[ComplyOrDie]

Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too

They were worked out by myself, only on the stakes shown as matched on Betfair, Ballymore currently £1324 and Supreme £664. Think it works out at 66.599% to be exact

[Kevloaf]

Backed Pym 45/1 1 pt win tonight for this race.

[Kevloaf]

I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore

[JackieMoon33]

I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore

Based on all the potentially exciting horses coming through this season, I think the Ballymore could be the destination for most of them and could prove to be a very competitive renewal. The Fame And Glory (Commander Of Fleet and Sebastopol) progeny I fully expect to end up here and not in the Supreme. Tornado Flyer looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina and as he's by Flemensfirth, it's highly unlikely he'll be going for the Supreme either. Danny Kirwan could have an easy season with chasing in mind but if he goes to the festival, I'd see him running here. I believe Olly Murphy has stated Brewinupastorm will need further than 2 miles so you can throw him into the mix. Of the other Mullins horses I can't get a handle on what Hollowgraphic or Blackbows trips will be and Carefully Selected looks an Albert Bartlett horse. Another outside dark horse could be Downtown Getaway for Nicky Henderson and he's very interesting wherever he goes this season (no mention in the stable tour though).

All in all this will be a very competitive race in the same way as the RSA will be for the Novice chases (all the talented Novice chasers seem to be stayers bar Samcro)

[Innoko]

Pym needs a trip, got better the further they went.

[Kevloaf]

Pym needs a trip, got better the further they went.

Yeah absolutely. Was impressed with him them to be honest. The fact he made all on hurdles debut strikes me that they knew he'd want further too.

Amy comments from Hendo?

[Innoko]

I've been looking but can't find anything!

[SeanRock]

A lot to like about Pym's run today. Jumped nicely in the main and when he was briefly headed approaching the last he really knuckled down and produced his best leap whilst under pressure staying on gamely to the line for a mostly hands & heels ride from Nico. He'll definitely improve for a step up in trip in time.

[Kevloaf]

A lot to like about Pym's run today. Jumped nicely in the main and when he was briefly headed approaching the last he really knuckled down and produced his best leap whilst under pressure staying on gamely to the line for a mostly hands & heels ride from Nico. He'll definitely improve for a step up in trip in time.

Absolutely...

Is PYM still being aimed at the Supreme?

No, he wouldn’t be a Supreme horse and in my opinion he’ll get further so if it is anything the Ballymore will be more likely, but it’s a big if. He schooled this morning and jumped very well. I hope to have him out in the next few weeks.

Taken from the NH Unibet Blog last season...

33/1 with PP still - I am pleasantly surprised - if I hadn't already backed him I would at 33/1

***oddschecker error, he's 25/1 best price.

[archie]

I think that they'll be quietly satisfied with Pym rather than over the moon. While never exuding confidence, Nico didn't really ask a serious question.
You can't take too much out of the race until the beaten horses (or Pym) reappear and you have to take note that the race was marginally slower than Div 2.

[JackieMoon33]

For anyone considering backing Didtheyleaveuoutto. As he's by Presenting I'd have always had him down for this race too.

DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO (NICK GIFFORD)

Pretty Puttens never made it to the racecourse, but her half-brother Denman, who won the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup, certainly did. Pretty Puttens’ son Didtheyleaveuoutto, on the other hand, is a speedier type judged by his winning Rules debut in an all-weather bumper at Lingfield in November.

He covered the final two furlongs faster than all bar one Flat horse over the same C&D in 2017 – but he also possesses a huge stride, and it would be no surprise to see the family’s stamina manifest itself more when he goes over hurdles this season.

Didtheyleaveuoutto took on nine other previous winners for his second start in a Listed event at Ascot in December and again showed a smart turn of foot off a slow pace, and he was sent straight to the Champion Bumper for his next start nearly three months later, but found the soft going against him.

“The way he gallops at home he’ll definitely want a trip,” said Gifford, and given the horse’s stamina-laden pedigree, his future may lie in races such as the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival rather than the shorter Supreme.

[Hurricane fly]

Shaping up to be the hottest Novice for some time*


*classic preseason overreaction

[JackieMoon33]

Shaping up to be the hottest Novice for some time*


*classic preseason overreaction

I agree the Ballymore looks the likely destination for many of the predicted good things. The same goes for the RSA for the novice chasers.

[Kevloaf]

For anyone considering backing Didtheyleaveuoutto. As he's by Presenting I'd have always had him down for this race too.

DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO (NICK GIFFORD)

Pretty Puttens never made it to the racecourse, but her half-brother Denman, who won the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup, certainly did. Pretty Puttens’ son Didtheyleaveuoutto, on the other hand, is a speedier type judged by his winning Rules debut in an all-weather bumper at Lingfield in November.

He covered the final two furlongs faster than all bar one Flat horse over the same C&D in 2017 – but he also possesses a huge stride, and it would be no surprise to see the family’s stamina manifest itself more when he goes over hurdles this season.

Didtheyleaveuoutto took on nine other previous winners for his second start in a Listed event at Ascot in December and again showed a smart turn of foot off a slow pace, and he was sent straight to the Champion Bumper for his next start nearly three months later, but found the soft going against him.

“The way he gallops at home he’ll definitely want a trip,” said Gifford, and given the horse’s stamina-laden pedigree, his future may lie in races such as the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival rather than the shorter Supreme.

Only quoted for the Ballymore with 365 and is 50/1.

Best price for the Supreme is 25/1 (quoted literally every bookmaker).

...and people complain ante post betting is dead ...