Albert Bartlett 2019

[SeanRock]

Very frustrating to read this about Carefully Selected. He could have declared him & pulled out had the forecast rain not arrived. Anyway have cashed out for 25% profit.

“I’m disappointed that I didn’t declare him to run at Punchestown today. If I’d known the rain that arrived was going to come, he might well have run. At this stage, I don’t think he’ll make it to Cheltenham. His owner loves the Punchestown Festival and I’d say that will be his target.”

[Kevloaf]

Very frustrating to read this about Carefully Selected. He could have declared him & pulled out had the forecast rain not arrived. Anyway have cashed out for 25% profit.

“I’m disappointed that I didn’t declare him to run at Punchestown today. If I’d known the rain that arrived was going to come, he might well have run. At this stage, I don’t think he’ll make it to Cheltenham. His owner loves the Punchestown Festival and I’d say that will be his target.”

The 25% profit does soften the blow.

[taylorch1990]

Latest acceptors are here https://files.constantcontact.com/20...7bb6af119a.pdf

Galvin second highest rated in this race according to timeform. Has had the runs ( top of market not battle hardened enough ?) and owner sponsors race. 25s NRNB taken.

Elliot mentioned the Ballymore for Galvin on one of the stable tour videos.

[Cashew King]

Quote Originally Posted by TCH29 View Post
I still think Dinons has a great chance in this. Course and distance form. Will like the ground. Experience (crucial for the AB). GE has confirmed the target. Price seems way too big. His last run can be wholly excused as he was brought to a standstill by a faller in front just as he was making his move. Big chance IMO.

Couldn't agree more with this.

I agree with you both - price way to big and think he’s been forgotten by the market.

[SeanRock]

Quote Originally Posted by TCH29 View Post
I still think Dinons has a great chance in this. Course and distance form. Will like the ground. Experience (crucial for the AB). GE has confirmed the target. Price seems way too big. His last run can be wholly excused as he was brought to a standstill by a faller in front just as he was making his move. Big chance IMO.



I agree with you both - price way to big and think he’s been forgotten by the market.

Im on board with you on Dinons lads. Went through the race again last night and narrowed it down to Derrinross & Dinons for me. Ground conditions are highly likely to favour Dinons with Derrinross needing soft according to his trainer. So that made up my mind.

Dinons has plenty of experience under his belt with 12 races under rules, he'd be 6 from 7 over hurdles had he not nosedived when clear at the last on his debut over sticks. I also think he was travelling very sweetly and coming with a real challenge in the Monksfield had he not been badly hampered by Sometime Soon. He wouldn't have been stopping up the run in with his stamina and had he not been hampered and got his nose in front he'd be half the price he is now imo. Winning over the Albert Bartlett course & distance so easily in October is another big plus but he'll need to jump a lot better than he did that day (jumping was much improved in the monksfield).

[Kevloaf]

A couple of schools of thoughts with the number of runs trends...

Do we stick rigidly to them, making Dinons a great bet?

Or

Do you ignore them because SO MANY won't qualify this year (number of runs)... by 'design'.


There isn't any way Dinons is a better horse than Commander of Fleet, or Birchdale, or Dickie Diver... no way. Not having it...

but doesn't mean he won't win the race


***Added Dinons last night at 25s NRNB too, not knocking hat bet, just general conversation around the number of runs....

[boopa]

At what point are the average exposed horses overbet and the good unexposed horses underbet

[SeanRock]

Long term I’d say Birchdale & Dickie Diver will be better than Dinons. They look like proper chasers in the making whereas Dinons might be more at home over hurdles & closer to his ceiling than them. I’m not sold on Commander Of Fleet despite his win at the DRF probably being the best form in the race.

[ComplyOrDie]

Long term I’d say Birchdale & Dickie Diver will be better than Dinons. They look like proper chasers in the making whereas Dinons might be more at home over hurdles & closer to his ceiling than them. I’m not sold on Commander Of Fleet despite his win at the DRF probably being the best form in the race.

I think COF is the rock solid bet myself. He'll place at worst IMO.

[My tent or yours]

Long term I’d say Birchdale & Dickie Diver will be better than Dinons. They look like proper chasers in the making whereas Dinons might be more at home over hurdles & closer to his ceiling than them. I’m not sold on Commander Of Fleet despite his win at the DRF probably being the best form in the race.

Is birchdale definitely going for this over the ballymore?

[Quevega]

A couple of schools of thoughts with the number of runs trends...

Do we stick rigidly to them, making Dinons a great bet?

Or

Do you ignore them because SO MANY won't qualify this year (number of runs)... by 'design'.


There isn't any way Dinons is a better horse than Commander of Fleet, or Birchdale, or Dickie Diver... no way. Not having it...

but doesn't mean he won't win the race


***Added Dinons last night at 25s NRNB too, not knocking hat bet, just general conversation around the number of runs....

There's some logic to the number of runs stats, as it's often a big field, rough early, and championship pace.

Added to that it's the longest trip you'll get for a novice hurdler. So they're gonna feel it for sure, and some will down tools which is why a lot get pulled up.

I'd say it's not necessarily the number of runs that matters as much as the fortitude and stamina the individual horse possesses.

So the more battle hardened are more obvious ones to perform well here.

It's hard for us as merely viewers to be able to gauge the qualities required for this race off of 2 or 3 runs that have not necessarily been at championship pace. The trainers will also be a bit in the dark.

I don't think you can rule out horses like dickie diver and allaho, but if they do run well in this then they're probably very strong stayers for the future.

I've backed (or rather, still have bets running on) the following.

Commander of Fleet 4pts 10-1 (the race it won last time was one of the best novice hurdles of the year so must have a good chance here)
Derrinross 2pts 50-1 (Form keeps getting franked and looks a stayer, hope they run it as they might never get one again)
Birchdale 2pts 27-1 (very much doubt if this will win due to it still looking a bit weak minded, but Henderson has a good record and they like it)
Allaho 2pts 20-1 (don't think this stands a chance to be fair, but was impressed with it's win the other day and just covered it blindly)

I'll wait till the day now but Lisnagar Oscar would be of interest and Relegate if it runs here.
Wouldn't rule out a number of others people have mentioned and backed, as it's a wide open race for the reasons mentioned above.

[Istabraq]

A couple of schools of thoughts with the number of runs trends...

Do we stick rigidly to them
....

There’s some middle ground Kev.
Trends are important because it identifies what’s needed to win specific races, they create a profile, but you have to apply some leeway.
For instance, the old ‘must have run in last 40 day’ trend means you need a horse with a recent battle to their name but that doesn’t mean discount horses that ran 41 days ago.
Similarly with weight, not as string now with compressed ‘caps but I wouldn’t dismiss a horse with 11:6 if the trend says horses carrying 11:5 or less win.
They’re a guide but must be used with discretion, that said I’ll still never back a 5yo in a Champion hurdle or any double digit aged horse in championship race....

[archie]

There’s some middle ground Kev.
Trends are important because it identifies what’s needed to win specific races, they create a profile, but you have to apply some leeway.
For instance, the old ‘must have run in last 40 day’ trend means you need a horse with a recent battle to their name but that doesn’t mean discount horses that ran 41 days ago.
Similarly with weight, not as string now with compressed ‘caps but I wouldn’t dismiss a horse with 11:6 if the trend says horses carrying 11:5 or less win.
They’re a guide but must be used with discretion, that said I’ll still never back a 5yo in a Champion hurdle or any double digit aged horse in championship race....

Ditto that. You have to look at the reasons behind a trend eg the not run for 31 days before the Gold Cup. This is nothing to do with a specific number of days but the fact that the Denman Chase is now the last recognised trial race and it tends to be just under 5 weeks before the Gold Cup. This year, as we know, it was run a week later so in my own interpretation of the trends I've allowed the Denman runners an exemption. That said, as it was run at Ascot I don't make the actual form as relevant as usual.

[charlie]

AB trends:

11 of the 14 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class
6 winners of the G2 January 2m 5f course trial have lined up. 3 won, two placed
11 of the last 13 six or seven years of age
Only one French Bred winner in last 13
Willie Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham Stats
Seven of the 14 were course winners. Five others had never been here before.
Eight from the last nine were rated 140+
No horse has won having less than 3 runs over hurdles.
Last 6 winners started hurdling in 2 mile races

[Eggs]

AB trends:

11 of the 14 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class
6 winners of the G2 January 2m 5f course trial have lined up. 3 won, two placed
11 of the last 13 six or seven years of age
Only one French Bred winner in last 13
Willie Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham Stats
Seven of the 14 were course winners. Five others had never been here before.
Eight from the last nine were rated 140+
No horse has won having less than 3 runs over hurdles.
Last 6 winners started hurdling in 2 mile races

http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/racecard/Cheltenham/15-March-2019/1450/stats-guide