Arkle 2019

[Quevega]

Do you think draconien would beat beat getabird and cilaos emery in a 3 horse race over 2m where they ran to there merits?

Getabird 20/1 smashed him up at fairyhouse with an uncontested lead and then got hassled for the pace at punchestown where everything else up front cut there own throats trying to beat getabird. And Noel just had him sat at the back waiting to pick up the pieces and come through.

And cilaos emery 28/1 is a solid unexposed graded horse. Closely matched with Mick jazz. Bringing proper form to the table. And looks all over a 2m chaser.

The problem with the novice hurdle form from last season (and season before) is it's so messy.
They all beat each other. If it were a points based system then Kalashnikov and Samcro were probably the best. Ignoring others who's season was curtailed.

I couldn't really believe it watching Summerville Boy come home at Cheltenham, but when I thought about it afterwards, I could see why. But the horse had been beaten three times earlier in the season and did not look like a champion novice in waiting to me. It clearly improved, and improved for the ground, and for the pace/shape of the races it won. The supreme should be treated with caution when looking at cheltenham winners for next year, if ground is back to normal.
I was at Punchestown when Draconien won and couldn't believe that either, and I agree that all the Punchestown form should be treated with caution cos of the Mullins/Elliott battle. But the race was deep enough, and it was arguably the most impressive looking winner of the week.
As to which of the inconsistent Novices will be best over fences, will depend on the jumping and natural progression, and the ability of the trainer and jockey.

For the record I backed
Laurina & Palome Blue both at 25-1 straight after Cheltenham as Paloma Blue just looked like your typical horse that was preety good over hurdles but should improve for a fence, and it;s with a good trainer for 2 mile chasers.
Laurina cos I backed her for Champion Hurdle also and think she is potentially special. And after my last two wives left me (Quevega and Annie) I needed a new one.
I backed Draconien last month 25-1.

[SAMCRO]

Cant see how anyone could be against Draconien at this stage. IF he can jump well, a fast pace 2 miles on better ground should suit.

[ComplyOrDie]

Mengli Khan cut by both Betfair & PP this morning, 20's into 14's!

Could be on the back of them pushing Melon & Laurina out for this race though.

[jack1092]

They are probably also reacting to the Samcro news. He now is certain to be their no.1 chance in this.

[charlie]

FYI even though Mengli Khan has been cut by both Betfair & PP this morning, you can still boost to 22/1 with Hills which is the best price I can find.

[Scooby91]

Mengli Khan cut by both Betfair & PP this morning, 20's into 14's!

Could be on the back of them pushing Melon & Laurina out for this race though.

Good to see. I wonder what price they introduce cilaos emery after he wins his maiden. They diddnt quote footpad at all until introducing him at 7/1 after he won

[ComplyOrDie]

Good to see. I wonder what price they introduce cilaos emery after he wins his maiden. They diddnt quote footpad at all until introducing him at 7/1 after he won

Still no word on Cilaos Emery yet?

[ComplyOrDie]

FYI even though Mengli Khan has been cut by both Betfair & PP this morning, you can still boost to 22/1 with Hills which is the best price I can find.

Yeah, but Hills seem to be happy to offer almost anything up, Betfair/PP have links to the Elliott yard so makes sense to follow their prices IMO, over someone like Hills. Though, by all means take the 22's boosted of course, just use Betfair/PP as reference tbh.

[charlie]

Yeah, but Hills seem to be happy to offer almost anything up, Betfair/PP have links to the Elliott yard so makes sense to follow their prices IMO, over someone like Hills. Though, by all means take the 22's boosted of course, just use Betfair/PP as reference tbh.

Sure, we are following bookies connected to the stable and taking much higher prices with those not connected to the stable

[Scooby91]

Still no word on Cilaos Emery yet?

He's novice chasing. According to rubys novice chasing section of stable tour.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's novice chasing

Must have missed this, been waiting on an update about his well being.

[Scooby91]

Must have missed this, been waiting on an update about his well being.

Obvious bias as iv backed them . But been looking properly at this market for a few weeks.
I think mengli khan 20/1
Getabird 20/1
And cilaos emery 28/1 (any race) is a huge hand here.

Congrats to anyone who got 14s Kalashnikov

[charlie]

Top 4 in the market see's Kalashnikov as short as @ 9/2 with the 3 others destined for a season over hurdles (Melon, Samcro, Laurina). It's then pretty much 16's bar those.

Looking forward to the beginners chase at Uttoxeter on the 2nd which could include Lalor, Claimantakinforgan, Ravenhill Road, Vision Des Flos. Really looking forward to seeing Lalor over fences and have taken 33's.

[Scooby91]

Whether you've backed getabird draconien cilaos emery or something else all together, the one race you want to see your horse entered in. Is the

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beg. Sīchase of €17,000.00 4-y-o plus 2m. 1f.
Navan

2016 Min 5 11-12 R Walsh 1/3Fav (W P Mullins)
2015 Douvan 5 11-12 R Walsh 2/11Fav (W P Mullins)
2014 Vautour 5 11-12 R Walsh 2/11Fav (W P Mullins)
2013 Ballycasey 6 11-12 R Walsh 4/6Fav (W P Mullins)


I'd be hoping and thinking cilaos emery myself. But could be the likes of draconien and iv got it wrong.

[archie]

Thanks to Scooby for pointing this out.
This is the late November meeting and Al Boum Photo won in 2017. There is also a similar race two weeks earlier which was won by Footpad last year.
Most trainers like Navan for novices as it's a fair test.