Arkle 2019

[Kevloaf]

I could have sworn I'd made a bit of a case for Slate House but can't see it in here. Must be elsewhere.

He is 50/1 with WH and can be boosted to 56.5/1 which just HAS to be too big.

I found a quote saying he'll be a staying chaser in time.... however, he did run in the Supreme and as we all saw quite publically, he wanted to make Finian's Oscar who was clearly not a 2 miler, into an Arkle horse. I think jono made this point and I completely agree, that he has had an entirely different novice hurdle season and therefore I think I am very close to taking a 0.5 pt e/w bet on Slate House for the Arkle. In fact I now have, 56.5/1

I will also be adding Mengli Khan 1 pt e/w tonight. I've backed him with a free bet but I think he's a decent each way option even at this stage. I can't see another target unless he absolutely bombs out as a chaser (which he could as a flat bred horse) ... but the point above about his price compared to Kalashnikov is a good one

and I think the better ground would help him just as much as Kalashnikov too

[Kevloaf]

I'll probably add Paloma Blue 1 pt e/w whilst he is 25/1 (boosted again probably with WH).

Already commiting to the 'book' angle again but it has been a decent race to do so in my ever so humble opinion.

Slate House 56.5/1
Mengli Khan 25/1
Paloma Blue 25/1
Laurina 15.3/1
and a heap of free bets did go on Samcro just in case.

Kalashnikov the monster danger at the moment but no need to do anything for a bit.

[ComplyOrDie]

I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator, Sayo, Saldier, Stormy Ireland etc... Plus a few others, including Apple's Shakira, though feel she may stay hurdling?

My initial thoughts were that the form doesn't exactly stand out as 'strong' and at one point or another the majority of the Irish lot have all beaten each other which means no standout performer, the other thought was that the majority could potentially stay hurdling another year a la Footpad, before taking on chasing.

[jack1092]

I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

Farclas, Mr Adjudicator, Sayo, Saldier, Stormy Ireland etc... Plus a few others, including Apple's Shakira, though feel she may stay hurdling?

My initial thoughts were that the form doesn't exactly stand out as 'strong' and at one point or another the majority of the Irish lot have all beaten each other which means no standout performer, the other thought was that the majority could potentially stay hurdling another year a la Footpad, before taking on chasing.

I really like Saldier, he looked to me anything but the typical Triumph horse.

I would hazard a guess he wont go chasing this year, and instead be given a "free" year hurdling like Footpad etc. I think he's a potential monster.

[ComplyOrDie]

I really like Saldier, he looked to me anything but the typical Triumph horse.

I would hazard a guess he wont go chasing this year, and instead be given a "free" year hurdling like Footpad etc. I think he's a potential monster.

Yeah, massive fan I am of him too. Hope he progresses and takes to chasing eventually. He could be a monster.

[Kevloaf]

I see there has been the main focus on the Supreme/Ballymore runners, but does anyone feel we are missing a trick ignoring the Triumph horses?

In short, no - not missing a trick at all - it jsut isn't a relevant race/division for the following years novice chasers.

2010 - No 5 year olds
2011 - No 5 year olds
2012 - No 5 year olds
2013 - 1x 5 year old - His Excellency (D.Pipe) - was 8th in the Triumph at 100/1 the year before and came 3rd to Simonsig at 80/1
2014 - No 5 year olds
2015 - 1x 5 Year Old - Clarcam - Fell in the Fred Winter the year before 8th in the Arkle
2016 - No 5 year olds
2017 - No 5 year olds
2018 - 1x 5 year old - Saint Calvados - "famously" out of the places this year but didn't race as a juvenile in the UK.

Wouldn't spend any time on it this year CoD... I remember Hobbs saying Defi Du Seuil could be an Arkle horse after he ran although that changed fairly quickly beofre he ultimately didn't make the step up the next year anyway.

[ComplyOrDie]

In short, no - not missing a trick at all - it jsut isn't a relevant race/division for the following years novice chasers.

2010 - No 5 year olds
2011 - No 5 year olds
2012 - No 5 year olds
2013 - 1x 5 year old - His Excellency (D.Pipe) - was 8th in the Triumph at 100/1 the year before and came 3rd to Simonsig at 80/1
2014 - No 5 year olds
2015 - 1x 5 Year Old - Clarcam - Fell in the Fred Winter the year before 8th in the Arkle
2016 - No 5 year olds
2017 - No 5 year olds
2018 - 1x 5 year old - Saint Calvados - "famously" out of the places this year but didn't race as a juvenile in the UK.

Wouldn't spend any time on it this year CoD... I remember Hobbs saying Defi Du Seuil could be an Arkle horse after he ran although that changed fairly quickly beofre he ultimately didn't make the step up the next year anyway.

I did a brief history search and can see that indeed it is not a race to back a 5 year old so can see why the Triumph can be disregarded. That said, some interesting ones for the following season

[Istabraq]

Triumph - stamina sapping 2m 1f race on stiff New Course for 4yo
Arkle - quickets novice chase on calendar over 2m on far easier Old Course

I came to the conclusion many years ago that any horse that runs well in the Triumph will never have the speed to win over the minimum trip, they are far more likely to show well in the Stayers than the Champion, and if they go chasing more chance they go onto become Gold Cup than Champion chase horses...

[Innoko]

Footpad the exception here, but he was a year older I suppose.

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks guys, I think I have seen the light, no more wasted time on the Triumph horses for this race.

[Kevloaf]

I did a brief history search and can see that indeed it is not a race to back a 5 year old so can see why the Triumph can be disregarded. That said, some interesting ones for the following season

Yeah certainly interesting but I am quite negative on all the 4yo's the next season. I've seen too many not make the jump up in required grade even in my short ten-ish years that I've gone lukewarm on them all.

I tend to overrate bumper horses too in general. Not that it matters in the Arkle thread!



ALways good to look for new angles though CoD - even if you test a theory and prove its wrong, its not wasted

[Hurricane fly]

Footpad the exception here, but he was a year older I suppose.

Our Conor to
But I wouldn’t touch triumph horse with a 10 foot pole the year after

[Kevloaf]

Does seem like Defi Du Seuil is going novice chasing this year.

[Hurricane fly]

Big difference between his and Footpads second season over hurdles.

Won’t be a play for me unless I see him beat something with a pulse

[Kevloaf]

Big difference between his and Footpads second season over hurdles.

Won’t be a play for me unless I see him beat something with a pulse

Not that I am backing Defi (was merely pointing out that is the plan for him).... but Footpad didn't exactly have a good season. 5 runs, 0 wins. 43L+ defeats. A VERY flattering 2nd in a 4 horse race (where one horse fell) behind Petit Mouchoir too.

I wouldn't compare Footpad to anything really.... Defi only ran twice, he made his comeback and was rubbish behind Lil Rockerfeller and then flopped again in Feb and they pulled up stumps.

I completely agree DDS needs to actually show something, but Footpad being the bench mark is pretty harsh on any horse