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I've only just watched MK and thought he took to fences well, especially two fences down the back. I'm happy to have backed him a decent prices but was surprised to see just how much he's shortened.
Lalor's performance at Cheltenham is still the best by a novice this season imo.
I've only just watched MK and thought he took to fences well, especially two fences down the back. I'm happy to have backed him a decent prices but was surprised to see just how much he's shortened.
Lalor's performance at Cheltenham is still the best by a novice this season imo.
Why are you surprised? It has been near the top of the market for months and it won easily. That's how the markets react.
Very happy to be on Mengli Khan at 20's after that run. Though I wouldn't be in a rush to back now and they'll be plenty more to come to pass real judgement you couldn't have really asked for me I don't think. I'd put the run above Kalashnikovs debut but unsurprisingly below Lalor.
I love the fact that theirs no hiding place in Ireland for novice 2 milers after their first run with the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown and then the Arkle trial in February the only 2 real races left for all runners. Leopardstown at Christmas also allows us to get a great guage on the strength of these beginners chases. In the past we've had horses start off in easier races and look naturals over fences only to be put in place when upped in class. Both Sizing John and Ttebob were impressibely 2 our of 2 before their run here and before being slammed by albeit a superstar in Douvan. The same could be said of Petit Mouchoir who looked great until not being able to live with Min. The trip was on the short side but Death Duty was 3 out of 3 but couldn't cope with Footpad. For me it pays not to get too carried away with any of these beginners chases in Ireland and wait until then.
Much will now depend on the Mullins string to how this race is going to shape up now. If Voix du Reve*, Cilaos Emery, Getabird or Bapuame don't measure up then it would appear It'll require a left field runner (Tizzard still has Ainchea and Slate House) to come out and stake their claim otherwise it's hard to think we haven't seen the winner yet.
*VdR looks to have booked his place for the Leopardstown race though Mullins wouldn't fill you with loads of confidence on that last point so he could be another who looked great early on but found out upped in grade (though I do like him) Graham Wylie is usually on the FFP at some point during the season so could be interesting to get his view on the horse
"I'm very pleased with him," said Mullins.
"He probably wasn't as sharp as he was in Galway. Paul just thought the bigger fences and bigger track just made a difference. It just takes a bit more jumping around here than Galway.
"I'll try to keep him to that kind of trip."
Looking to future plans, Mullins said: "I'd imagine we'll go for something at Christmas. We'll keep him to the minimum trip and we may look at the Racing Post Novice Chase [at Leopardstown]. I don't know if he's good enough to do that.
Very happy to be on Mengli Khan at 20's after that run. Though I wouldn't be in a rush to back now and they'll be plenty more to come to pass real judgement you couldn't have really asked for me I don't think. I'd put the run above Kalashnikovs debut but unsurprisingly below Lalor.
I love the fact that theirs no hiding place in Ireland for novice 2 milers after their first run with the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown and then the Arkle trial in February the only 2 real races left for all runners. Leopardstown at Christmas also allows us to get a great guage on the strength of these beginners chases. In the past we've had horses start off in easier races and look naturals over fences only to be put in place when upped in class. Both Sizing John and Ttebob were impressibely 2 our of 2 before their run here and before being slammed by albeit a superstar in Douvan. The same could be said of Petit Mouchoir who looked great until not being able to live with Min. The trip was on the short side but Death Duty was 3 out of 3 but couldn't cope with Footpad. For me it pays not to get too carried away with any of these beginners chases in Ireland and wait until then.
Much will now depend on the Mullins string to how this race is going to shape up now. If Voix du Reve*, Cilaos Emery, Getabird or Bapuame don't measure up then it would appear It'll require a left field runner (Tizzard still has Ainchea and Slate House) to come out and stake their claim otherwise it's hard to think we haven't seen the winner yet.
*VdR looks to have booked his place for the Leopardstown race though Mullins wouldn't fill you with loads of confidence on that last point so he could be another who looked great early on but found out upped in grade (though I do like him) Graham Wylie is usually on the FFP at some point during the season so could be interesting to get his view on the horse
Ainchea is deffinately out.
Slate house could well be too
Mengli khan
Cilaos emery
Getabird
The arkle really is as simple as that.
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VDR is one horse I was hugely keen on for the JLT, and typically one of only a few I haven't backed 'any race' though think I may have to very soon. Cashed out my JLT single as I have him in a few multi's already and on the exchanges. Probably quite a pointer that VDR is as soon as 14's with PP though for this race.
Edit: Have gone in on him 'any race' with WH at 17.52/1, 4pts win.
Still a big fancy of mine whichever race he ends up in.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 28 November 2018, 10:24 PM.
Congratulations to those who have good prices on Lalor/Mengli Khan/Kalashnikov. Personally I always like to see horses jump a fence before I back them in novice chases at the Festival...and I well and truly missed the Lalor prices as a result. His run has clearly been the best so far.
What I can't understand are the prices as they are now. Based on the available evidence, how are the prices so similar?
Lalor 5/1
Kalashnikov 5/1
Mengli Khan 7/1
Anyone who was *forced* to back one of those three at those prices tomorrow and didn't back Lalor would want their head testing!
Which took me further down the Oddschecker list, past many of the others listed, who have close to no chance of running in the race at all. The first one you get to which is fairly likely to run (based on current available evidence) is Maria's Benefit. She has run twice over fences to RPRs of 140 & 147, which isn't stellar, but compare that to Kalashnikov (141) and Mengli Khan (144) and it isn't bad. Yet Maria's Benefit is available at 40/1 with Hills, which is 8 (EIGHT!) times the price. I'm almost talking myself into a very small bet on her...but I really don't actually think she can win the Arkle, and as someone who doesn't run a book on races, that probably rules me out.
I still think this market as it stands is all wrong though.
Congratulations to those who have good prices on Lalor/Mengli Khan/Kalashnikov. Personally I always like to see horses jump a fence before I back them in novice chases at the Festival...and I well and truly missed the Lalor prices as a result. His run has clearly been the best so far.
What I can't understand are the prices as they are now. Based on the available evidence, how are the prices so similar?
Lalor 5/1
Kalashnikov 5/1
Mengli Khan 7/1
Anyone who was *forced* to back one of those three at those prices tomorrow and didn't back Lalor would want their head testing!
Which took me further down the Oddschecker list, past many of the others listed, who have close to no chance of running in the race at all. The first one you get to which is fairly likely to run (based on current available evidence) is Maria's Benefit. She has run twice over fences to RPRs of 140 & 147, which isn't stellar, but compare that to Kalashnikov (141) and Mengli Khan (144) and it isn't bad. Yet Maria's Benefit is available at 40/1 with Hills, which is 8 (EIGHT!) times the price. I'm almost talking myself into a very small bet on her...but I really don't actually think she can win the Arkle, and as someone who doesn't run a book on races, that probably rules me out.
I still think this market as it stands is all wrong though.
I think lalor is the worst priced of them 3. I'll happily stand by that. Huge over reaction to his win.
Too big a reaction to mengli khans too.
Do people really think dynamite dollars gets anywhere near the arkle?
Last edited by Scooby91; 28 November 2018, 10:33 PM.
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Since Ruby officially moved back to Willie Mullins, his Arkle rides have been:
2013 - Arvika Ligeonniere (PU) 15/2 - Simonsig won the race as a red hot fav.
2014 - Champagne Fever 11/4 joint fav and *cough*
2015 - Un De Sceaux (1st) 4/6 fav
2016 - Douvan (1st) 1/4 fav
2017 - Royal Caviar (4th) 6/1 behind Altior who won at 1/4 - however was due to ride Min. (Yorkhill didn't switch to Arkle either)
2018 - Footpad (1st) 5/6 fav
Now that is only a very small recent sample however, he's had the fav in 4 of the last 5, and Min was a clear 2nd fav behind an absolute superstar in Altior. I don't think it is particularly bold to say that Mullins/Walsh know how to find one for this race!
With that in mind, looking at the market we have the 3 horses at single figures (Lalor, Kalashnikov, Mengli Khan). None of them have trainers that have ever had a horse run in the race as far as I can see. I'm not doubting them as trainers obviously, but I'd always want the trainer who has got the experience where possible.
In short, what I am saying is that I fully expect Ruby/Mullins to have a horse at single figures (and to be fair, I almost expect them to have the fav) at some point within the next 33 days. So which one?!
The only one we've seen, as jono points out, is Voix Du Reve. CoD is keen on him in the JLT, and that race does make more sense to me, coupled with the trainers quote about him perhaps not being good enough, is reason enough for me not to worry about him. PP are shortest price, but it's a bit too early to really worry about that when the rest haven't had a run.Draconien has unfortunately already gone by the wayside, who had Grade 1 winning hurdles form.
Using the oddschecker market as a guide, 20/1 for Cilaos Emery and Getabird are the next two for Mullins and you can make cases for both. Scooby has already done a good job through the thread highlighting the CE positives, the key one for me is that he's the highest rated hurdler, which is surprising, as for many Getabird was arguably one of the best novices last season.
Getabird on his 'best day' beat Mengli Khan by 9 lengths, which was a great run. I personally remember saying MK would get closer on better ground however you'd struggle to say MK Was a better horse than Getabird no matter how many ways you skin that race. Purely looking at the price between Mengli Khan now (7/1) and Getabird at 20/1, can you argue he's a good value bet? I think you can argue that. The huge glaring problem though... is that Getabird has thrown in a few stinkers. The first in the Supreme. No excuse came to light for the 7/4 fav, and very much seemed like the bubble was burst. However, he bounced back to "slam" future Grade 1 winning hurdler Draconien by 12l at Fairyhouse. Regardless of anything else, you don't win a Grade 2 by 9L against a form Grade 1 winner, and a Grade 2 by 12l against a next time out Grade 1 winner, unless you're a very talented horse. How much trouble is going left-handed? Well we just don't know. I don't tend to give a helluva lot of worry to it, but until it's broken it'll put people off.
I'm very much tempted to add Getabird at 20's with any free bets with slybet while 20s, but potentially the 16s with cashout available 365
and Cilaos Emery I already have backed at 28/1
Between those 3 at the top of the market now, and the two Mullins runners, I expect to have the WINNER and places filled
Since Ruby officially moved back to Willie Mullins, his Arkle rides have been:
2013 - Arvika Ligeonniere (PU) 15/2 - Simonsig won the race as a red hot fav.
2014 - Champagne Fever 11/4 joint fav and *cough*
2015 - Un De Sceaux (1st) 4/6 fav
2016 - Douvan (1st) 1/4 fav
2017 - Royal Caviar (4th) 6/1 behind Altior who won at 1/4 - however was due to ride Min. (Yorkhill didn't switch to Arkle either)
2018 - Footpad (1st) 5/6 fav
Now that is only a very small recent sample however, he's had the fav in 4 of the last 5, and Min was a clear 2nd fav behind an absolute superstar in Altior. I don't think it is particularly bold to say that Mullins/Walsh know how to find one for this race!
With that in mind, looking at the market we have the 3 horses at single figures (Lalor, Kalashnikov, Mengli Khan). None of them have trainers that have ever had a horse run in the race as far as I can see. I'm not doubting them as trainers obviously, but I'd always want the trainer who has got the experience where possible.
In short, what I am saying is that I fully expect Ruby/Mullins to have a horse at single figures (and to be fair, I almost expect them to have the fav) at some point within the next 33 days. So which one?!
The only one we've seen, as jono points out, is Voix Du Reve. CoD is keen on him in the JLT, and that race does make more sense to me, coupled with the trainers quote about him perhaps not being good enough, is reason enough for me not to worry about him. PP are shortest price, but it's a bit too early to really worry about that when the rest haven't had a run.Draconien has unfortunately already gone by the wayside, who had Grade 1 winning hurdles form.
Using the oddschecker market as a guide, 20/1 for Cilaos Emery and Getabird are the next two for Mullins and you can make cases for both. Scooby has already done a good job through the thread highlighting the CE positives, the key one for me is that he's the highest rated hurdler, which is surprising, as for many Getabird was arguably one of the best novices last season.
Getabird on his 'best day' beat Mengli Khan by 9 lengths, which was a great run. I personally remember saying MK would get closer on better ground however you'd struggle to say MK Was a better horse than Getabird no matter how many ways you skin that race. Purely looking at the price between Mengli Khan now (7/1) and Getabird at 20/1, can you argue he's a good value bet? I think you can argue that. The huge glaring problem though... is that Getabird has thrown in a few stinkers. The first in the Supreme. No excuse came to light for the 7/4 fav, and very much seemed like the bubble was burst. However, he bounced back to "slam" future Grade 1 winning hurdler Draconien by 12l at Fairyhouse. Regardless of anything else, you don't win a Grade 2 by 9L against a form Grade 1 winner, and a Grade 2 by 12l against a next time out Grade 1 winner, unless you're a very talented horse. How much trouble is going left-handed? Well we just don't know. I don't tend to give a helluva lot of worry to it, but until it's broken it'll put people off.
I'm very much tempted to add Getabird at 20's with any free bets with slybet while 20s, but potentially the 16s with cashout available 365
and Cilaos Emery I already have backed at 28/1
Between those 3 at the top of the market now, and the two Mullins runners, I expect to have the WINNER and places filled
You don't need to know which 1. It's 1 of 2 CE or getabird. If you have CE any race at 28s and Getabird 20s with cash out for the arkle . You'll have the arkle fav after the racing post novice chase.
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You don't need to know which 1. It's 1 of 2 CE or getabird. If you have CE any race at 28s and Getabird 20s with cash out for the arkle . You'll have the arkle fav after the racing post novice chase.
Yeah, Lalor at 33/1
Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 November 2018, 11:06 PM.
No rush to do anything, certainly feel I'm back ahead anyway More of a book than you this year, posted my previously years where I haven't done that as often as I thought, but hard not to at this stage.
Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 November 2018, 11:10 PM.
My book on this race (odds are average), about 75% of my total points staked are free bets:
12 points @9 Kalashnikov
10 points @6 Lalor
3.5 points @26 Cilaos Emery (Any race)
3 points @20 Mengli Khan
2.5 points @22 Draconian
2 points @25 Paloma Blue
1 point @28 Vision Des Flos
1 point @18 Getabird
Can never back too many 😂 The only one I will top up for another point or 2 this next week is Getabird. It pains me to do it to be honest after the way he ran at the Festival last year, but feels like too big a risk to leave him unbacked and I take Scooby’s point that he may perform better in a smaller field which this may well be
No rush to do anything, certainly feel I'm back ahead anyway
I actually should have rephrased that as I can see a case for Kalashnikov winning. But I wont be backing anything else. And id be supremely confident iv a huge hand. With Kalashnikov the danger IMO
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future Grade 1 winning hurdler Draconien by 12l at Fairyhouse. Regardless of anything else, you don't win a Grade 2 by 9L against a form Grade 1 winner, and a Grade 2 by 12l against a next time out Grade 1 winner, unless you're a very talented horse. How much trouble is going left-handed? Well we just don't know. I don't tend to give a helluva lot of worry to it, but until it's broken it'll put people off.
More of a book than you this year, posted my previously years where I haven't done that as often as I thought, but hard not to at this stage.
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