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Arkle 2019

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  • I’m happy with that run today, (take his current price out of the equation) I think people are too quick to criticize novice chasers making there debuts over the big obstacles. They’re novies so you can expect a novicey error or two. He should come on leap & bounds for the run.

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    • He'll be better over further

      *Desperately hoping he ends up in the JLT*

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
        He'll be better over further

        *Desperately hoping he ends up in the JLT*
        I'd echo that comment however looking at the market what will take him on in England? All his main rivals appear to be in Ireland at the moment.

        I suspect he will go unbeaten till the festival where it would take a very brave decision to skip the arkle for the JLT.

        I can see something just being a little slicker and quicker over his fences in the arkle that him.

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        • He looked a whole lot better and slicker jumping when he went a better tempo IMO. So maybe a strongly run arkle will be perfect for him.

          As I have missed the boat with the prices I'd be happy to leave him though.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
            I’m happy with that run today, (take his current price out of the equation) I think people are too quick to criticize novice chasers making there debuts over the big obstacles. They’re novies so you can expect a novicey error or two. He should come on leap & bounds for the run.
            Agree regarding the criticism of Novices

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            • I know the way the antepost markets work, but the shortening of Kalashnikov to 6/1 best priced has actually shocked me. Well done to people on at decent prices, but I think at 6/1 he is the worst value antepost bet for the Cheltenham festival. I cant get my head round it.

              Terrible price on many levels.

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              • Murphy said: "It was very much like sending your kid to school on the first day of term but Kalashnikov put in a safe round of jumping and it was job done. It's all about learning a lot here and he was only about 85 per cent fit as we haven't been able to use the grass gallops that much.

                "There are no set plans but all roads lead to the Arkle and we may look at Plumpton next month as they are putting on a bonus, but we will do right by the horse."*
                https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by billymag View Post
                  I know the way the antepost markets work, but the shortening of Kalashnikov to 6/1 best priced has actually shocked me. Well done to people on at decent prices, but I think at 6/1 he is the worst value antepost bet for the Cheltenham festival. I cant get my head round it.

                  Terrible price on many levels.
                  Its not outstanding value but it's pretty fair he just won nicely on debut. Theres nothing from last year's champion hurdle. The hype horse samcro stays hurdling. The supreme winner stays hurdling, he was a narrow 2nd, so he's the standout 2 miler in the division and very much the one to go and beat on the form book. If he was trained by mullins had all the same form he'd be 3 or 4/1 now.
                  https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                  Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by billymag View Post
                    I know the way the antepost markets work, but the shortening of Kalashnikov to 6/1 best priced has actually shocked me. Well done to people on at decent prices, but I think at 6/1 he is the worst value antepost bet for the Cheltenham festival. I cant get my head round it.

                    Terrible price on many levels.
                    It's a real shame that ante post betting is getting worse and worse.

                    Comment


                    • Potentially I could see Willie having two or three better, Gordon having two better, Nicky having one better, plus all the other British and Irish trainers, the chance of him getting injured or loss of form, he has the option of the JLT, the worst price of the festival, in my opinion. Im not saying it wasnt a nice introduction and he was fine, its a price thing, Im genuinely stunned they have shortened him and as a result Ive put a £50 lay in at 6/1 on betfair. #moneywherebigmouthis

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by billymag View Post
                        Potentially I could see Willie having two or three better, Gordon having two better, Nicky having one better, plus all the other British and Irish trainers, the chance of him getting injured or loss of form, he has the option of the JLT, the worst price of the festival, in my opinion. Im not saying it wasnt a nice introduction and he was fine, its a price thing, Im genuinely stunned they have shortened him and as a result Ive put a £50 lay in at 6/1 on betfair. #moneywherebigmouthis
                        Fair play. If you've no takers and fancy knocking up to 9/1 I'll happily oblige.
                        https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                        Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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                        • 6-1 is not far off a fair price, based on the novice hurdle form, likely competition, likely low runner field, and declared target.
                          It's probably just a bit skinny as they probably want to duck it a little bit as if elliott and mullins and rest of Irish trainers don't produce a stand out contender then Kalashnikov will only shorten, assuming he keeps performing.

                          I'd have took eights earlier after seeing him run if it were available. I also think Huntsman Son is interesting upped in trip a little, maybe for the Novice handicap chase on the tuesday, if mark can be kept under the max.
                          Last edited by Quevega; 9 November 2018, 03:53 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                            He'll be better over further

                            *Desperately hoping he ends up in the JLT*
                            In the same boat.
                            Last edited by mayo; 9 November 2018, 04:01 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                              Its not outstanding value but it's pretty fair he just won nicely on debut. Theres nothing from last year's champion hurdle. The hype horse samcro stays hurdling. The supreme winner stays hurdling, he was a narrow 2nd, so he's the standout 2 miler in the division and very much the one to go and beat on the form book. If he was trained by mullins had all the same form he'd be 3 or 4/1 now.
                              Agree with that but Mullins has won 3 of the last 4 and they all won pretty easy. While I think Willie is a far better trainer of hurdlers than chasers I think he's surely worth 2 points less than a trainer who has not even won a listed chase. Not knocking Amy or anything she's flying.

                              Comment


                              • Thought he did it nice enough for his debut. Was obviously a bit novicey early on and jumped a few big, as you would expect, but he jumped better as the race went on and the faster they went, which is a good sign.

                                Don't think you could have asked for much more of the horse at this stage of his career, and he's bound to come on a lot for it.

                                That said, he's being priced as if he is going to dominate the 2m novice division, and that takes a pretty big leap of faith at this stage. I'd still want a double figure price. We learnt next to nothing in the context of him being an Arkle winner or to suggest he is going to be a star novice chaser.

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