Arkle 2019

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve no doubt people with big antepost books will be able to turn a profit (in theory only need a couple of double digit winners) but everyone else I think will have a tough time.

If you went through the festival there is maybe 3 bankers? Altior, BDD and Tiger Roll(I don’t like to consider the XC as banker material, see CoC getting kicked last year)

Champion Hurdle is wide open with 3 shorties
Arkle and JLT both look poor, but that lends itself to big priced winners
The Supreme is merky, Ballymore I think Champ will be smashed into but is vulnerable

I get the feeling a lot of favourites will be turned over and the bookies will come out on top, which I’m sure none of us want!

[boopa]

I disagree the markets are uncertain and that creates potential for value. Some cracking races from a betting point of view even if the quality isn't there.

[jonthehammer]

I am not sure switching Defi back to 2m is a good thing tbh, he improved going up in trip it seemed.

Plus Lalor has already smashed him by 21 lengths over C&D in November. I think he is the one to beat at present. Goes well fresh, done it at the venue and will be there or thereabouts.

Its up for grabs tho!

[Kevloaf]

CoC pulled up and retired injured. I hate that people knock him for that run as if he was beaten on merit.

Same with the clowns that bang on about Douvan. He clearly was banker material....Banks go out of business too though

[Kevloaf]

I’ve no doubt people with big antepost books will be able to turn a profit (in theory only need a couple of double digit winners) but everyone else I think will have a tough time.

If you went through the festival there is maybe 3 bankers? Altior, BDD and Tiger Roll(I don’t like to consider the XC as banker material, see CoC getting kicked last year)

Champion Hurdle is wide open with 3 shorties
Arkle and JLT both look poor, but that lends itself to big priced winners
The Supreme is merky, Ballymore I think Champ will be smashed into but is vulnerable

I get the feeling a lot of favourites will be turned over and the bookies will come out on top, which I’m sure none of us want!

It's really tough for me to answer something like that I suppose, as it's 2014 the last time I only had one (poss two) a race with hardly any ante post.

I'd find that tough any year really, compared to snaffling up value left, right and centre over 12 months like a big greedy hoover.

For the record though, 2014 I had 151 pts staked, and 192 pts returned, so it can be done This year would be harder than that year on the face of it, but I'm a lot better now than 5 years ago too.

Have some faith HF You'll be buying a racehorse with your winnings a month from now...

[westcountry1]

Seems like the stars are aligning for my long term investments and fancy for this race Lalor...it's great from my investment point of view but in a strange way would have preferred him to beat a stronger field. Dave P is doing a great job with him...just can't wait for the next fortnight to pass.

[Hurricane fly]

CoC pulled up and retired injured. I hate that people knock him for that run as if he was beaten on merit.

Same with the clowns that bang on about Douvan. He clearly was banker material....Banks go out of business too though

Cause of Cause was kicked by a faller which is what caused him to be pulled up I believe, I wouldn’t have stats to back this up but I would think you are twice as likely to be hampered by a faller than a 3m Chase, hence my resistance to calling anything a banker in it unless it was to front run aka Balthazar King

And I totally agree about Douvan, I argue that very point any time I see it - hence why I feel ok about having Altior as a baker

[Kevloaf]

In jumps racing, a racing banker to me implies 'if they get round, they win'... but perhaps that isn't a common thought.

I don't suppose it matters either way, I get the point you're making

I think the ones deemed to be "The Bankers" are Benie Des Dieux, Paisley Park, Tiger Roll, Sir Erec and Altior.

A bit like when Yanworth was a banker, and UNWIMH - some are dubious... Paisley Park and Sir Erec will cause the most debate...on the preview circuit, I'd assume.

[Kevloaf]

Seems like the stars are aligning for my long term investments and fancy for this race Lalor...it's great from my investment point of view but in a strange way would have preferred him to beat a stronger field. Dave P is doing a great job with him...just can't wait for the next fortnight to pass.

As the only saying goes .... Better to be lucky than good

I thinki Can't Catch Me mentioned him very early on here, certainly was the prompt for me to have a look. Would be dying in a ditch for the Arkle without taking a flyer on him at 33/1 before he ran!

[TigerRolllllll]

It's really tough for me to answer something like that I suppose, as it's 2014 the last time I only had one (poss two) a race with hardly any ante post.

I'd find that tough any year really, compared to snaffling up value left, right and centre over 12 months like a big greedy hoover.

For the record though, 2014 I had 151 pts staked, and 192 pts returned, so it can be done This year would be harder than that year on the face of it, but I'm a lot better now than 5 years ago too.

Have some faith HF You'll be buying a racehorse with your winnings a month from now...

This is my first year doing ante-post.....learning journey ....think have some good positions, but will need less dead next year.....i do think you can make money most years (i have last 5 at least) watching value and following things like previous festival form, obvious trainers, watching out cap plots, etc....cant wait now

[charlie]

As the only saying goes .... Better to be lucky than good

I thinki Can't Catch Me mentioned him very early on here, certainly was the prompt for me to have a look. Would be dying in a ditch for the Arkle without taking a flyer on him at 33/1 before he ran!

Exactly the same.

[charlie]

Added Hardline 12/1 NRNB. If Getabird lined up in this Arkle, even with the left handed issues, what price would he be? I reckon he would be at the top of the market at 10/3 or something like 3/1. Hardline beat him fair and square and is 4 times the price in a weak race. This point was made on the FFP btw so its not really my own, but I thought a good point nonetheless.

[ComplyOrDie]

Added Hardline 12/1 NRNB. If Getabird lined up in this Arkle, even with the left handed issues, what price would he be? I reckon he would be at the top of the market at 10/3 or something like 3/1. Hardline beat him fair and square and is 4 times the price in a weak race. This point was made on the FFP btw so its not really my own, but I thought a good point nonetheless.

He didn't beat him fair and square He would have lost if Getabird hadn't screwed the last fence up and landed flat footed, but he was certainly close enough in proximity to be counted for sure, so I do take your point.

I have added him 'any race' last week too.

[boopa]

FFP been reading FJ forum.

[charlie]

He didn't beat him fair and square He would have lost if Getabird hadn't screwed the last fence up and landed flat footed, but he was certainly close enough in proximity to be counted for sure, so I do take your point.

I have added him 'any race' last week too.

Yeh fair point. I just watched back and I was wrong. Still happy with performance as you say