Arkle 2019

[BigChaang]

Good work Kev.
I'm Against Mengli Khan for win purposes in the arkle, although if he runs in the race he will likely be shorter than 20-1.
I Don't like flat racers/breds for this race - even though I admit probably very few have tried. percentage call is to oppose, 20-1 looks good but he is effectively in the top four in the betting.
I Don't like Gordon's record at the highest level with quicker horses, the stable has often been all about stayers, although again I admit this may be developing. And he is clearly capable.
The third place in the supreme flattered Mengli Khan. And may have flattered the winner also. I believe Kalashnikov to be the best horse from that race. But I think Kalashnikov is more of a stayer, but could win an arkle. Probably a bit short right now.
Dodging Bullets was shite, and won his grade ones against nothing.
It's nice to discuss this so early after none of them have run. And I'm more than happy to be proved wrong over the season.
I'll probably end up backing him at some stage.

A bit Harsh on Dodging bullets there Quevega !, Did win the champion chase , beating a champion chase winner
to be in Special Tiara . and somersby - second twice.

[charlie]

Added Lalor @ 33/1.

[ComplyOrDie]

Cracking write up Kev.

With Mengli Khan being a 20/1 shot I think it is also worth considering his ability to be consistent. He had 9 runs over hurdles and won 3 of them and placed in 4 of them, overall a 77.77% combined win/place rate. The 2 races he did not win/place in, he finished 4th (just outside the places) to a short priced stablemate, also owned by the same connections, and the other race he didn't place in he never finished as he done something uncharacteristic of him and ran out 2 from home whilst in the lead, now that's not to say he would have won that race but I have no doubt he would have been in the mix for sure.

I would not put too much emphasis on the breeding for him myself.

20/1 is certainly more than fair in a race that will break up.

[Faugheen_Machine]

A bit Harsh on Dodging bullets there Quevega !, Did win the champion chase , beating a champion chase winner
to be in Special Tiara . and somersby - second twice.

I agree with Quevega. Dodging Bullets was the worst Champion Chase winner for many a year. An awful renewal of the race.

[Folski]

I agree with Quevega. Dodging Bullets was the worst Champion Chase winner for many a year. An awful renewal of the race.

In fairness to Dodging Bullets he was the best 2miler that year and deserved the QMCC but an absolutely horrible renewal. Had SS stayed sound he'd have won 4.

[charlie]

Following conversations on the Champion Hurdle thread I am talking myself into backing Laurina for the Arkle @ 14/1 (as in I have just done it). After Cheltenham Willie said "She's a fine, big mare. If there was ever going to be a mares' chase in Cheltenham, she's the type of horse you'd want for it".

Willie said 'i think she'll stay hurdling'. Call me mad for trying to play Willie Mullins bingo in October, but that screams leave the door open to chasing and when I look at the hand Willie has for races Laurina could go to (CH & Mares) and then the current market for the Arkle, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they elect to send her chasing, especially if the likes of Samcro go down the CH route.

[ComplyOrDie]

Following conversations on the Champion Hurdle thread I am talking myself into backing Laurina for the Arkle @ 14/1 (as in I have just done it). After Cheltenham Willie said "She's a fine, big mare. If there was ever going to be a mares' chase in Cheltenham, she's the type of horse you'd want for it".

Willie said 'i think she'll stay hurdling'. Call me mad for trying to play Willie Mullins bingo in October, but that screams leave the door open to chasing and when I look at the hand Willie has for races Laurina could go to (CH & Mares) and then the current market for the Arkle, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they elect to send her chasing, especially if the likes of Samcro go down the CH route.

The thing I do not get about Willie's quotes are that he says "If there was ever going to be a mares' chase in Cheltenham, she's the type of horse you'd want for it" now he has said the same about Benie Des Dieux, but IF he was going to run her in a champion hurdle and not avoid the boys that way what does it matter if it's a Mares' only chase or an open chase like the Arkle where she will get her allowance against the boys anyway?

Why would you be willing to take the boys on over hurdles but not fences? I'm happy to listen to answers because I myself am a little bit mystified by the recurring statement he makes about the Mares' going chasing at the festival. Think, possibly the same was said about VVM too!

Possibly worth noting that he rarely sends a mare top level chasing at the festival, not that it done Shattered Love any harm for different trainer/connections last season.

[Quevega]

Re - Dodging Bullets. Lets just say he was relatively shite in comparison to others.

[Scooby91]

The thing I do not get about Willie's quotes are that he says "If there was ever going to be a mares' chase in Cheltenham, she's the type of horse you'd want for it" now he has said the same about Benie Des Dieux, but IF he was going to run her in a champion hurdle and not avoid the boys that way what does it matter if it's a Mares' only chase or an open chase like the Arkle where she will get her allowance against the boys anyway?

Why would you be willing to take the boys on over hurdles but not fences? I'm happy to listen to answers because I myself am a little bit mystified by the recurring statement he makes about the Mares' going chasing at the festival. Think, possibly the same was said about VVM too!

Possibly worth noting that he rarely sends a mare top level chasing at the festival, not that it done Shattered Love any harm for different trainer/connections last season.

Mullins himself and harold Kirk have been asking publlically for a while to have a mares chase at the festival. Probably just trying to push that through. Alot of his mares are for sale next month ie Augusta Kate, let's dance, karalee, meri devie, law girl...... wish i had a spare few hundred thousand.

[ComplyOrDie]

Mullins himself and harold Kirk have been asking publlically for a while to have a mares chase at the festival. Probably just trying to push that through. Alot of his mares are for sale next month ie Augusta Kate, let's dance, karalee, meri devie, law girl...... wish i had a spare few hundred thousand.

Yeah, I've seen they have been trying to get one introduced, but for the life of me can't understand why they go over hurdles against the boys but hold back when it comes to chases at the festival?

Surely with the allowance as well it can't be much different, if they are good enough, anyway?

[Scooby91]

Yeah, I've seen they have been trying to get one introduced, but for the life of me can't understand why they go over hurdles against the boys but hold back when it comes to chases at the festival?

Surely with the allowance as well it can't be much different, if they are good enough, anyway?

There's superior money down the mares program. Vroum vroum was there biggest earner the year she just dotted around in mares chases. Picked up €240,000 and diddnt meet a horse of any note

[archie]

I've said somewhere else that different owners have different ideas about whether or not they want to send their mares over fences. The 'if she were mine' theory of betting is not a good methodology.

As for Willie's comments, those for a planned interview are much more reliable than those immediately post-race. If someone sticks a microphone in your face when the adrenalin is still going, any comment is far less considered.

I have little doubt that Laurina will start out over hurdles and will carry on as long as they think that she can reach the 160s. The only rider to this is that it's possible that she will be schooled over fences. If she is very good it might make them think twice. It's what happened to Kemboy a year ago. One day he was a potential staying hurdler, the next he was a novice chaser. However, he was only a 142 hurdler and a gelding so the pros and cons were different.

[charlie]

I've said somewhere else that different owners have different ideas about whether or not they want to send their mares over fences. The 'if she were mine' theory of betting is not a good methodology.

As for Willie's comments, those for a planned interview are much more reliable than those immediately post-race. If someone sticks a microphone in your face when the adrenalin is still going, any comment is far less considered.

I have little doubt that Laurina will start out over hurdles and will carry on as long as they think that she can reach the 160s. The only rider to this is that it's possible that she will be schooled over fences. If she is very good it might make them think twice. It's what happened to Kemboy a year ago. One day he was a potential staying hurdler, the next he was a novice chaser. However, he was only a 142 hurdler and a gelding so the pros and cons were different.

I disagree re Willie comments because he is so guarded and considered in everything he says. He is a master at answering a question without giving an actual answer and rarely gives anything away. I think it's in moments post race where he is likely to give away more than he would do otherwise.

[robith]

I am reminded of Kevin Blake's comment on how cautious Willie is on statements that he will invariably not rule out anything he's asked - so it's always best to check the question he was asked.

"Willie, Douvan - 4 Miler?"

"Hmm. I wouldn't rule it out"

[archie]

I disagree re Willie comments because he is so guarded and considered in everything he says. He is a master at answering a question without giving an actual answer and rarely gives anything away. I think it's in moments post race where he is likely to give away more than he would do otherwise.

That would not be my experience so we'll agree to disagree.