Arkle 2019

[BigChaang]

That's where I'm at with this race at the moment. Paloma Blue is the other, at 20/1, that catches my eye.

Few spots of blue for Paloma blue today on Oddschecker .

[Can't Catch Me]

Quite surprised they are talking of Paloma Blue as an Arkle horse myself. Looks a horse who would greatly benefit from a step up in trip to me. Would really like him for the JLT.

[Scooby91]

I'm going to post a bit more on this tomorrow, but Mengli Khan picking up the place in the Supreme could well sway me to making him my main fancy in this race (before any of them actually go jumping of course)

I like him, not certain how he'll take to fences. My reservation is he was a second season hurdler and came into the season with experiance that stood him in good stead as he filled into his frame. I think what he showed is what he is, a good solid graded horse. I think the likes of GETABIRD are very raw and could improve in the same way mengli khan did for his second season over obstacles. Cilaos emery I hope will be in the novice chase division he's bringing experiance and a touch of class. They'res something left field and I might already have it. I'd give Maria's benefit a shout with her allowance and see how she gets on, she beat a nice horse last time out all be it on heavy. Coquin mans needs further. I can forgive him for punchestown but He also was bitterly dissapointing at auteuil which there maybe something that came to light afterwards

[Scooby91]

And after all that if backed mengli khan with 365. I can see him going bigger than 20s even if he dissapoint. Such isbthat lack of depth. So cash out is there

[somer1]

Just topped up on Mengli and had more of the 20/1 with Skybet.

[charlie]

I'm going to post a bit more on this tomorrow, but Mengli Khan picking up the place in the Supreme could well sway me to making him my main fancy in this race (before any of them actually go jumping of course)

Looking forward to this

[somer1]

Can see this race being like the one Western Warhorse won.

[Kevloaf]

Before I start, it is the 22nd October and I think the only horse listed in the entire oddschecker list for the Arkle that has appeared this season is Vision Des Flos, who lasted two fences at the weekend! Loads and loads of water to go under the bridge and plenty of fences to be pinged before I'll be getting pinned to a decision.

RUK have a page with the 2008 to 2017 Arkle video replays.... https://www.racinguk.com/news/racing...-video-replays - What a superb way to spend an evening regardless of where this post takes me!


I'll go through year-by-year taking a look at previous years Supreme runners, any 'flat bred' horses and touching on anything else I think is interesting along the way.... I have noticed something very interesting in my own betting strategy whilst doing this post that I wasn't consciously aware of though which may surprise a few people on here!


To start though, a look at the current market...

Connections have said all the following are staying over hurdles... 20/1 Summerville Boy (Hurdles), 16/1 - Laurina (Hurdles), 14/1 - Melon (Hurdles), 12/1 - Samcro (Hurdles), 20/1 - If The Cap Fits (Hurdles) so I'll ignore them, leaving:

7/1 - Kalashnikov
16/1 - Paloma Blue
20/1 - Vision Des Flos
20/1 - Getabird
20/1 - Mengli Khan

(There have been of good cases made and comments about others loads of others at bigger prices like Slate House, Defi Du Seuil, Draconien, Lalor, Marias Benefit and plenty more)


2008 - Tidal Bay 6/1 (20 runners)
I don't remember the 2008 Arkle that Tidal Bay won.... I do remember the 2008 Gold Cup that Denman won though. I was falling in love with horse racing then and have fond memories of 2007 too (because of the replays and build up in 2008!) - History shows I missed quite a golden age in 2 mile chasing (especially looking at some Arkle winners like Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes (The last of which I remember being swatted aside by Masterminded in the 2008 QMCC though). Anyway, I digress already, Noland for Nicholls and Ruby and he lined up 7/4f for the same owner who had Azertyuiop 5 years earlier. He had won the Supreme in (2006) before missing the whole next season. Tidal Bay had been beaten a neck in 2nd in the 2007 edition of the Ballymore so also came in with very strong festival form and he puts in a brilliant performance. It is a couple of years before Tidal Bay ends up winning a notable race as a stayer (Cleeve Hurdle) before also winning a Sandown Gold Cup and Lexus etc. I've never been mad keen on the argument about stayers running in the Arkle but you this would be a tick in the box for it.

Previous years Supreme form? - no qualifiers
Stayers can with the Arkle? - Tidal Bay did go on to win decent racers as a stayer a couple of years afterwards.
Flat Bred? - the 2nd looks flat bred, Kruguyova (but I will need to have this verified!) and Noland (dual purpose sire) was 3rd.

2009 - Forpadyderplasterer - 8/1 (17 runners)
Don't remember this either (what a thrilling read so far I bet!) didn't watch the race or have a bet.... interestingly the highlight on the RUK website is Albertas Run in the RSA not the 2009 Arkle haha.

Previous years Supreme form? - Kalahari King was 4th in the 2008 Supreme and went on to place in the Arkle, 2nd.
Stayers can with the Arkle? - Looks like he didn't win for another 3 years and that was over 3m but I don't think he would qualify as proof of this theory personally.
Flat Bred? - Kalahari King in 2nd

2010 - Sizing Europe - 6/1 (12 runners)
No bet recorded for me, was slightly too early still - Sizing Europe had stayed over hurdles and not made a dent in the Champion Hurdle the year before but won this race well as an 8yo from Somersby who I remember well. Riverside Theatre also further back in 5th who stayed on like a train. He loved that hill didn't he!

Previous years Supreme form? Somersby, 3rd in the 2009 Supreme, 2nd in the Arkle. Kangaroo Court 15th Supreme finished 7th.
Stayers can with the Arkle? Not based on Sizing Europe, as hard as they tried to make him a stayer, he was a 2 miler
Flat Bred? None of note.

2011 - Captain Chris - 6/1 (10 runners)
Starting to really remember them now, and this was the first year I started recording my Cheltenham bets (hooray). I had £5 e/w on Rock Noir who was a rubbish 8th of 10. I have no explanation of that bet. I watched it with my friend Chris, who didn't back Captain Chris so that was some consolation! A good renewal with Finian's Rainbow in 2nd, who I never really warmed to. He looked to have it won so easily 3 out!

Previous years Supreme form? Only qualifier was Dan Breen who was 12th in the Supreme and 7th in the Arkle
Stayers can with the Arkle? Only got beaten a neck in a King George...
Flat Bred? None of note


2012 - Sprinter Sacre - 8/11f - (6 runners)
Now we're cooking. I had caught the bug by this point and remember watching Sprinter Sacre's chase debut. I had backed SS in the 2011 Supreme which he placed in and this Arkle win was just fantastic. "Unfortunately" I wasn't a big punter than and my £30 on at 5/6 seems hilarious now (although things did escalate after this, as the year after in the Champion Chase I had £888.00 on him as a single) This race was amazing to watch. I remember him looking around after 3 out! What a race. He is the best two mile chaser I think I've seen and he took to fences as well as any horse I can think of compared to hurdles.

Previous years Supreme form? Sprinter Sacre 3rd Supreme, 1st in Arkle. Al Ferof who won the Supreme was 4th, Cue Card was 2nd in both. Menorah had ALSO won a Supreme in 2010 and placed 3rd in this Arkle). Certainly a very strong year for Supreme horses!
Stayers can with the Arkle? - Out and out two miler with class to win over 2m4
Flat Bred? None

2013 - Simonsig - 8/15f (7 runners)
My first "live" festival! Not as easy to watch as Sprinter Sacre considering the field was weaker and he pulled hard the majority of the way around but by £105 was well placed. I couldn't remember WHY the stake was £105 but then I remembered it was because my biggest ever bet at that point had been £100 and I wanted to beat it! (As mentioned, I blew that out of the water the next day on SS but it was nice while it lasted!

Previous years Supreme form? No qualifiers (Simonsig had won the Ballymore nicely)
Stayers can with the Arkle? Untested really but he looked like he'd have done well over further too!
Flat Bred? His Excellency came 3rd, Flat sire and Dam has produced both NH and Flat.


2014 - No winner - 33/1 (9 ran)
This was the first year I ever backed more than one in a race, and the main bet was Champagne Fever (obviously). I did also have a small each way on Rock on Ruby who flopped after making a mistake early on. This race is pretty infamous and I almost can't bring myself to watch it again... but I will.
What a joke. 2 mins 42 seconds in the commentator says "Western Warhorse is already beginning to wave the white flag"... Oh my, that is still a horrible watch hahaha.

Previous years Supreme form? Supreme Winner CF, beaten a head. Also Didging Bullets was 9th in the Supreme and 4th in the Arkle.
Stayers can with the Arkle? Never got tested although the moral winner CF, I believe could easily have been a stayer.
Flat Bred? Dodging Bullets in 4th. (Frankie Detorri bred him)

2015 - Un De Sceaux - 4/6f (11 ran)
My first ante post bet in the Arkle - UDS at 5/2. I also backed him on the day at 4/7 and he won at 4/6 and I don't think I had BOG looking at my spreadsheet. Woops!
I'm surprised at this point I've only ever backed one horse in the race... for anyone that reads my posts on here that may come as a surprise, but it clearly worked in this case. Un De Sceaux was a high profile absentee the previous year and was absolutely magnificent chasing. So fun to watch, I've always been a massive fan and this was the second leg in the most exciting day in the sport. I Was there that day, Douvan had won and I remember exactly where I watched this. A group of us all had the 4 timer but my main bet for the week was UDS / Faugheen / Vautour - I won £500 from a £10 free bet that I had placed on Christmas Eve 2014! I was there to watch UDS and obviously Faughen, and it rolled onto Vautour on the Thursday and it was the most I'd ever won (in terms of profit) from a single bet (I think!) None of this has anything to do with the Arkle but there we go!


Previous years Supreme form? Josses Hill 2nd in the Supreme, 3rd in the Arkle
Stayers can with the Arkle? Not based on Un De Sceaux.
Flat Bred? None of note


2016 - Douvan - 5/2 (7 ran)
This was always going to be the only horse I (anyone?) backed for the race. Was on ante post at 5/2 and he won at 1/4. The only horses backed (although I did back Sizing John without which might count)? which was fortunate to win I suppose.

Previous years Supreme form? First Supreme/Arkle winner since Flying Bolt in 1965!
Sizing John 3rd then 2nd in Arkle.
Stayers can with the Arkle? Untested.
Flat Bred? Fox Norton - Flat sire, Dam dual purpose?

2017 - Altior - 1/4f (9 ran)
I'd joined this forum at the start of this season and was/am/always will be firmly in the camp that thought Altior would smash Min up in the Arkle. I'm partly gutted we didn't get to see it, and I was there to watch him power away up the hill for the second year in a row. This horse is a superstar and in terms of punting was the first one I'd really taken an aim at from early in the season at 5/1. I also had a double with Yorkhill (who had won the Neptune) at 41/1 that I had posted about here and that took over from the Vautour bet mentioned in 2015 Certainly my best bet of that years festival.
Altior of course becoming a back-to-back horse to do the Supreme/Arkle double!


Previous years Supreme form? Altior does the double following Douvan. Charbel was 5th in the Supreme and fell when looking like on for 2nd.
Stayers can with the Arkle? Untested
Flat Bred? None of note


2018 - Footpad - 5/6f (5 ran)
Where do I start with this year! I guess my first play and reason Iended up having to make a book, was that I was convinced Finian's Oscar was coming here and had 10 pts win on from early in the season. Tizzard kept trying to make him an Arkle horse so I partly feel justified that I had the target right, but hindsight showed he was never fast enough to win this race (stayers don't win the Arkle right?).
Fortunately the next cab off the rank was Footpad that Scooby had advised at 25/1 for this race and my main bet 16s any race. That brought me right back in the game after his flawless debut and he was always going to be odds-on on the day after that. I also had the 100/1 about Saint Calvados that was an absolute dream through the season and the fact he went off 11/4 2nd fav is remarkable. It is even more remarkable that in a 5 runner race I had two runners at 100/1 and neither got in the top 3 haha.


Previous years Supreme form? No runners although PM had been 8th 2 years prior.
Stayers can with the Arkle? Untested
Flat Bred? Unfortunately Footpad's Dam has produced better NH than Flat


Well that was fun (for me) well done if you're still reading this... Sprinter Sacre, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Altior, Footpad all within the last 6 years, that is incredible.


The main surprise for me is how despite it being a small field I've not really gone for the multi-horse approach unless I've gotten it wrong (last year). It is still very early days in the Arkle market but there certainly isn't a standout hurdler this year if things play out the way trainers have said. This means I think I'll be making a book approach again although this is the first season I haven't had my idea of the winner already! I'd have been wrong a couple of times but overall in a good spot.

I almost feel obliged to 'pick one' now and I think it's Mengli Khan...

I have taken some encouragement regarding the 'flat bred' worry. I don't think anyone can deny Mengli Khan looks a chaser, he's so big... and the connections say he's schooled well, but there are glimpses in the previous placed horses that show it can be done... and Dodging Bullets did go on and win a Champion Chase. I think it's perfectly plausible that Mengli Khan is just a bit of a genetic freak, and more suited to jumping than any of his siblings have/ will be. That does take an amount of faith, BUT I am not going to put enough weight behind pedigree when it'll be his actual jumping on the track that I make my mind up from.

For Mengli Khan to win this race he needs to break the Mullins/Henderson domination (5 of the last 6) and 6 if you include Champagne Fever, which I am going to do - but this is Gordon Elliott. He's been the festival top trainer for two years in a row, despite Mullins showing no signs of weakness. He is a superstar trainer and that "big 2" in this race will be a big 3 over the next 5 years I have no doubts.

I am not sure anyone has a strong view that Supreme winners horses don't make it to be Arkle winners, but I think on their PLACED to PLACED record alone Mengli Khan deserves serious each way consideration at 20/1.

The horse that came 2nd in the Supreme last season is 7/1 fav, whereas Mengli Khan who was very close in 3rd is 3 times the price - 20/1.

Goodnight.

[Leman14]

Wow!
Well done Kev
Some great memories

[charlie]

What a fantastic write up Kev! Added Mengli Khan, definitely one to have on side.

[BigChaang]

Western warhorse Arkle , was my first cheltenham festival visit., Remember it well. I'm already in the M.K camp,
although there's still time for a newcomer, like last year.
Agree with what your saying about the big two becoming the big three,
Gordon Elliot got an impressive stable to work with.

[jono]

Great post! Enjoyed reading that Kev. Like you say...

Sprinter Sacre, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Altior, Footpad all within the last 6 years, that is incredible.

Really is incredible. It's going to take some going for a horse to be mentioned in the same breath as them. Footpad managed to come out and defy expectation last season but we probably are 'due' a substandard Arkle over the next few seasons which is a little hard to take personally when similar to you I got into the sport during this period. Outside of that quintet you had Simonsig - a horse with absolutely bundles of talent that we never got to see come to fruition and as you mentioned the 'moral winner' of the 2014 race in Champagne Fever. You couldn't class him being up there with the very best but he ran a foot perfect Arkle race and was so so close to being a three time festival winner. Again just incredible...

On this years race -

I can't quite get fully behind the idea of Mengli Khan winning this race. I have a nagging feeling he will find one or two horses too good for him, but mostly as he is coming from the flat - which could just be a lazy and naive stance. You've highlighted reasons above why this shouldn't be something to dismiss him completely. I remember dismissing Rock on Ruby completely for going chasing so late in his career and that was justified, Petit Mouchoir I had a similar nagging feeling to MK - mainly having had the extra run over hurdles but also I just couldn't se him being top class. But that extra season was obviously rubbished by Footpad (took me until Christmas to realise how good he was missing the big prices). And to digress slightly - Native River, I dimissed in the Gold Cup last season as he had ran and not won a previous renewal. Despite everything else in his favour on the day I refused to back him for that sole reason. I generally ignore most of them but i've made sure that from this season on, i'm not going to let a stat/trend dictate a reason for not backing a horse so his flat background is something i'm willing to let him prove whether it turns out to be true or not.

I know you should never really dismiss something without coming up with an alternative and without having one to hand - my argument against becomes pretty redundent. When Samcro, Melon, Laurina and Summerville Boy all come out of the head of the betting then he will have to shorten before he even steps foot on a racecourse and I would imagine be around the 12-14/1 mark leading up to his chase debut.

I still wouldn't want to call him the winner for me but at 20/1 EW, 1/4 the odds he's the most logical bet in the race by far and you've talked me into an EW bet on him. 150 rated hurdler, Placed festival form, one of the best trainers around, confirmed target, excuse or reason why he may have done even better at last years festival (ground) - There really is just too many positives and reasons to back him, and to back him now.

MK each way and then trying to find a bigger price outsider to chance is likely going to be my strategy for the race.

[BigChaang]

What's your thoughts on Paloma blue Jono ?.

[somer1]

Tidal Bay was my very 1st ante post bet as read somewhere that when he was sold to the owner or trainer at the time the seller said to them this horse will win an Arkle.Yes great read Kev.Thank you.
Tips hat to Kev.

[Quevega]

Good work Kev.
I'm Against Mengli Khan for win purposes in the arkle, although if he runs in the race he will likely be shorter than 20-1.
I Don't like flat racers/breds for this race - even though I admit probably very few have tried. percentage call is to oppose, 20-1 looks good but he is effectively in the top four in the betting.
I Don't like Gordon's record at the highest level with quicker horses, the stable has often been all about stayers, although again I admit this may be developing. And he is clearly capable.
The third place in the supreme flattered Mengli Khan. And may have flattered the winner also. I believe Kalashnikov to be the best horse from that race. But I think Kalashnikov is more of a stayer, but could win an arkle. Probably a bit short right now.
Dodging Bullets was shite, and won his grade ones against nothing.
It's nice to discuss this so early after none of them have run. And I'm more than happy to be proved wrong over the season.
I'll probably end up backing him at some stage.